Sunday, July 24, 2016

The Week Ahead: Interest rates, GDP, homes, durables, trade

The Federal Open Market Committee meets for two days, announcing its decision on interest rates on Wednesday at 2 p.m. New York time.

 An important input to Fed decision making, first figures on 2nd quarter gross domestic product, will be published Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

Other major reports out during the week are new home sales on Tuesday at 10 .m., durable goods orders on Wednesday at 10 a.m. and international trade in goods on Thursday at 8:30 a.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

The index of consumer expectations from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, at 10 a.m. Friday.

Raising the Floor: How a Universal Basic Income Can Renew Our Economy and Rebuild the American Dream
by Andy Stern

Events arranged by day:

Tuesday: The S&P Case-Shiller home price report of conditions in 20 metro areas at 9 a.m. and consumer confidence at 10 a.m.

Wednesday: Pending home sales at 10 a.m., petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m. and the Federal Open Market Committee announcement at 2 p.m.

Thursday: International trade in goods and jobless claims, each at 8:30 a.m., and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: GDP at 8:30 a.m. and consumer sentiment at 10 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.38%, down seven basis points from a week earlier.

Treasury Debt

  • 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 2-year: Auction Monday 1 p.m.
  • 2-year floating rate: Auction Wednesday 11:30 a.m.
  • 5-year: Auction Tuesday 1 p.m.
  • 7-year: Auction Thursday 1 p.m.
  • None.
  • 10-year: Settlement Friday.

Two of the Fed glitterati have scheduled public appearances, both on Friday. They are Dallas Fed. Gov. Robert Kapan, an alternate member of the Federal Open Market Committee, and San Francisco Fed Pres. John Williams, who holds no position on the FOMC this year.
Analytical universe

This week I shall be analyzing new trading signals from among 501 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds.


The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.
--Edmond Malinvaud, "The Theory of Prices and Resource Allocation" 
in Economics Beyond the Millennum (1999)

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 24, 2016


Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.


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Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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