Sunday, July 31, 2016

The Week Ahead: Jobs, manufacturing, money in and out, and world trade

The employment situation report will be published on Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time. Easily the most widely watched economic report, it will either comfort or afflict us light of the Federal Open Market Committee's decision last week to, once again, leave interest rates unchanged.

Employment will get a sneak preview in the form of the privately produced ADP employment report on Wednesday at 8:15 a.m.

Other majors to hit the Street's consciousness during the week: The Institute of Supply Management manufacturing  on Monday at 10 a.m., personal income and outlays on Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. and international trade on Friday, also at 8:30 .m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The average hourly workweek in manufacturing from the employment at 8:30 a.m. Friday.

Manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials from factory orders at 10 a.m. Thursday.

Vendor performance, also called the deliveries times index, from the ISM manufacturing survey.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

Manufacturers' new orders for non-defense capital goods from factory orders at 10 a.m. Thursday.

The Economic Singularity: Artificial Intelligence and the Death of Capitalism
by Calum Chace

Events arranged by day:

Monday: The Purchasing Managers Institute manufacturing index at 9:45 a.m. and the ISM manufacturing survey and construction spending, both at 10 a.m.

Tuesday: Motor vehicle sales throughout the day and personal income and outlays at 8:30 a.m.

Wednesday: The ADP employment report at 8:15 a.m., the ISM non-manufacturing survey at 10 a.m. and petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

Thursday: Jobless claims, at 8:30 a.m., factory orders at 10 a.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: Employment and international trade, each at 8:30 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.34%, down four basis points from a week earlier.

Treasury Debt

  • 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 2-year: Settlement Monday
  • 2-year floating rate: Settlement Monday
  • 3-year: Announcement Wednesday 8:30 a.m.
  • 5-year: Settlement Monday
  • 7-year: Settlement Monday
  • 10-year: Announcement Wednesday 8:30 a.m.
  • 30-year: Announcement Wednesday 8:30 a.m.
  • None.

Only one grandee from among the Fed glitterati takes to the podium during the week: Dallas Fed Pres. Robert Kaplan, a Federal Open Market Committee alternate, on Tuesday and Thursday.

Analytical universe

This week I shall be analyzing 474 symbols for options trading, 953 for shares trading and 1,412 for earnings announcements.

"Optimism is cowardice."

—Oswald Spengler, German historian, “Man and Technics” (1931)

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 31, 2016


Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.


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Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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