Sunday, July 3, 2016

The Week Ahead: Employment, FOMC minutes, holiday

Markets in the United States will be closed on Monday for the Independence Day holiday.

The employment situation report, closely followed by those who make monetary policy, will be published Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time. A sneak preview, the private-sector ADP employment report, will be released on Thursday at 8:15 a.m.

The Federal Open Market Committee minutes for the June 15 meeting, which left rates unchanged in the approach of the vote in the United Kingdom to leave the European Union, will be published on Wednesday at 2 p.m.

There is one other major input for traders: International trade on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

Average hourly workweek in manufacturing from the employment report, at 8:30 a.m. Friday.

Manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials from the factory orders report at 10 a.m. Tuesday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

Manufacturers' new orders for non-defense capital goods from the factory orders report at 10 a.m. Tuesday.

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Events arranged by day:

Monday: Markets closed.

Tuesday: Factory orders at 10 a.m.

Wednesday: International trade at 8:30 a.m., the ISM non-manufacturing index at 10 a.m. and the FOMC minutes at 2 p.m.

Thursday: The ADP employment report at 8:15 a.m., jobless claims at 8:30 a.m., the petroleum inventories at 11 a.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: Employment at 8:30 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.46%, up seven basis points from a week earlier.

Treasury Debt

  • 4-week: Auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 3-month: Auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 6-month: Auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 3-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 10-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 30-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • None.

Fed Gov. Daniel Tarullo discusses financial regulation and monetary policy at the Wall Street Journal Breakfast Conversation on Wednesday at 9 a.m.  The event will be webcast here.

Another FOMC member, New York Fed Pres. William Dudley, has scheduled public appearances on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Analytical universe

This week I shall be analyzing new trading signals from among 496 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds.


There is danger from all men. The only maxim of a free government ought to be to trust no man living with power to endanger the public liberty.

--John Adams (1772)

Good trading!

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 3, 2016


Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.


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Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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