Of 504 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds in my analytical universe, one meets my criteria for further consideration. I already hold a position in it.
There is one prospect for a trade coinciding with an earnings announcements.
I shall do further analysis of the earnings prospect on Monday, July 18.
The next earnings season began on July 11 and will last for six weeks, through Aug. 19.
by Andy Stern |
Symbols meeting or close to meeting implied volatility criteria
IV qualifies
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Qualifies, In portfolio
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Potential trades keyed to events
The dates are those of the events, all of them earns announcements. Events prior to the opening bell are marked "am", during the trading day "mid", and after the closing bell "pm".
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Assessment
Aside from IBM, nine symbols qualify for further analysis in all respects except for implied volatility measured as a percentile of the annual range. IBM itself barely qualifies, with volatility at the 50th percentile, my minimum allowable level.
The others are below the 31st percentile. If they should reach the 50th percentile on Monday, then I shall consider them further, but not otherwise. The nine are EMC, NFLX, YHOO, GS, JNJ, LMT, PLD, PM and UNH.
Methodology
The stocks in my analytical universe all have analyst coverage through the stock-ranking company Zacks Investment Research. Not all of the exchange-traded funds are so covered.
I screen for 1) suitability of the options grid, including open interest of three figures or greater on the strike prices I would need to use to build a position and 2) the absence of an earnings announcement within the lifespan of the like options series I would trade, 3) implied volatility in the 50th percentile or greater of its annual range, 4) average volume of 3 million shares a day or greater, and 5) a price of $20 or greater.
-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 15, 2016
References
Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.
I can be reached via comments on Private Trader posts or by email at datnillc@gmail.com.
Alerts
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Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.License
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