Of 473 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds in my analytical universe, three broke beyond their 20-day price channels, two to the upside and one to the downside. None survived initial screening.
There is one prospect for a trade coinciding with an earnings announcements.
I shall do further analysis on Tuesday, May 24.
The next earnings season will begin on July 11 and last for six weeks, through Aug. 19.
by Allen C. Benello et al.
Potential trades keyed to events
The dates are those of the events, all of them earns announcements. Events prior to the opening bell are marked "am", during the trading day "mid", and after the closing bell "pm".
INTU has overly low implied volatility, in the 42nd percentile of its most recent range. I require the 60th percentile or higher for full analysis and maybe a trade.
Let's see what INTU does after the opening bell. A rise from the 42nd to the 60th is certainly not out of the question.
The stocks in my analytical universe all have analyst coverage through the stock-ranking company Zacks Investment Research. Not all of the exchange-traded funds are so covered.
I screen the symbols for historical odds of a profitable signal in the direction of the breakout for the past 12 months.
For symbols whose odds of success are in the top or bottom thirds, suggesting a directional or non-directional trade, respectively, I next screen for 1) suitability of the options grid, including open interest of three figures or greater on the strike prices I would need to use to build a position and 2) the absence of an earnings announcement within the lifespan of the like options series I would trade.
I defer until the day of a possible trade a final screen for implied volatility in the 60th percentile or greater of its most recent range.
-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, May 23, 2016
Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.
I can be reached via comments on Private Trader posts or by email at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
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