The consumer price index, a measure of inflation and deflation, will be published Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. New York time, as will housing starts. Industrial production will reach traders shortly thereafter at 9:15 a.m.
Housing will take another bow with publication of the existing home sales report on Friday at 10 a.m.
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting of April 26-27 will be released on Wednesday at 2 p.m.
Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):
The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.
The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.
The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.
Building permits for new private homes from housing starts at 8:30 a.m. Tuesday.
The index of leading indicators, although not itself a leading indicator, provides a useful You Are Here marker for where we are in the economic cycle. Out Thursday at 10 a.m.
by Sheldon Natenberg
Events arranged by day:
Monday: Empire State manufacturing survey of conditions in New York at 8:30 a.m., the Home Builders' housing market index at 10 a.m. and the Treasury Department's international capital report at 4 p.m.
Tuesday: The consumer price index and housing starts at 8:30 a.m. and industrial production at 9:15 a.m.
Wednesday: Petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m. and FOMC minutes at 2 p.m.
Thursday: Jobless claims and the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank business outlook survey of conditions in the Mid-Atlantic region, each at 8:30 a.m., leading indicator at 10 a.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.
Friday: Existing home sales at 10 a.m.
I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.53%, unchanged from a week earlier.
- 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
- 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
- 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
- 52-week: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
- 2-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
- 5-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
- 7-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
- 10-year: Auction Thursday 1 p.m.
Fed Gov. Daniel Tarullo speaks on insurance company supervision and regulation at a National Association of Insurance Commissioners forum in Washington, D.C. on Friday at 9 a.m.
One other FOMC member speaks: New York Fed Pres. Wiliam Dudley on Thursday.
Two FOMC alternates take to the podium: Minneapolis Fed Pres. Neel Kashkari on Monday and Dallas Fed Pres. Robert Kapan on Tuesday.
And one other of the Fed glitterati has scheduled an appearance: San Francisco Fed Pres. John Williams on Tuesday.
This week I shall be analyzing new trading signals from among 479 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds.
-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, May 14, 2016
Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.
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