Sunday, May 8, 2016

The Week Ahead: Retail, producer prices

Retail sales and the producer price index will be published on Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time, ending an otherwise indifferent week with a bang.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.


The Breaking Point: Preparing for the Coming Global Shift
by James Dale Davidson

Events arranged by day:

Tuesday: Job opening and labor turnover survey at 10 a.m.

Wednesday: Petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m. and the Treasury budget at 2 p.m.

Thursday:  Jobless claims and import and export prices, each at 8:30 a.m., and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: Retail sales and the producer price index, each at 8:30 a.m., and business inventories and consumer sentiment, each at 10 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.53%, up 0.06% from a week earlier.

Treasury Debt

  • 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 3-year: Tuesday auction 1 p.m.
  • 10-year: Wednesday auction 1 p.m.
  • 30-year: Thursday auction 1 p.m.
  • 10-year: Thursday announcement 11 a.m.

Two FOMC member will speak: Boston Fed Pres. Eric Rosengren and Kansas City Fed Pres. Esther George on Thursday

An FOMC alternate, Minneapolis Fed Pres. Neel Kashkari, takes to the podium on Monday

One other of the Fed glitterati, Boston Fed Pres. John Williams, who has no position on the FOMC this year, speaks on Friday.

Analytical universe

This week I shall be analyzing new trading signals from among 476 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds.

Good trading!

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, May 8, 2016


Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.


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Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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