Sunday, May 1, 2016

The Week Ahead: Jobs, manufacturing, trade

The week after the Fed declined yet again to raise interest rates, a new unemployment situation report rolls around. Is the job market hot or not? On that question, among others, hinges the Fed's next move. We'll learn about jobs on Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

And we'll get an early peak via the ADP employment report, an analysis from a leading payroll company, on Wednesday at 8:15 a.m.

Two other reports having market-moving potential will be published during the week: The Institute of Supply Management manufacturing survey on Monday at 10 a.m. and international trade on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The average hourly workweek in manufacturing from the employment report at 8:30 a.m. Friday.

Manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials from the factory orders report at 10 a.m. Wednesday.

Vendor performance, also called the deliveries times index, from the ISM manufacturing survey at 10 a.m. Monday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

Manufacturers' new orders for non-defense capital goods from factory orders at 10 a.m. Wednesday.

by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Events arranged by day:

Monday: Purchasing Managers Institute manufacturing index at 9:45 a.m., the ISM manufacturing survey at 10 a.m. and construction spending at 10 a.m.

Tuesday: Motor vehicle sales throughout the day.

Wednesday: The ADP employment report at 8:15 a.m., international trade and productivity and costs, each at 8:30 a.m., the PMI services index at 9:45 a.m., factory orders and the ISM non-manufacturing index, each at 10 a.m., and  petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

Thursday: Jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: Employment situation at 8:30 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily and now at 703.00, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.60%, up 0.13% from a week earlier.

Treasury Debt

  • 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 3-year: Announcement Wednesday 8:30 a.m.
  • 30-year: Announcement Wednesday 8:30 a.m.
  • None.

Four Federal Reserve Bank presidents take part in a panel discussion of international monetary policy and reform at a Hoover Institution conference, International Monetary Stability: Past, Present and Future, on Thursday at 7 p.m. New York time. The conference will be held at Stanford University in California.

The panelists are a Federal Open Market Committee, St. Louis Fed Pres. James Bullard, an FOMC alternate, Dallas Fed Pres. Robert Kaplan and two other presidents who lack a role on the FOMC this year, Atlanta Fed Pres. Dennis Lockhart and San Francisco Fed Pres. John Williams

Another FOMC member, Cleveland Fed Pres. Loretta Mester, has scheduled a public appearance on Tuesday

An FOMC alternate, Minneapolis Fed Pres. Neel Kashkari, speaks on Wednesday

And in addition to the Stanford conference, Lockhart has scheduled appearances on Monday and Tuesday and Williams on Monday.

Analytical universe

This week I shall be analyzing new trading signals from among 490 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds.

Good trading!

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, May 1, 2016


Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.


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Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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