Thursday, May 12, 2016

Friday's Prospects

On Thursday, May 12:

Of 476 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds in my analytical universe, 10 broke beyond their 20-day price channels, seven to the upside and three to the downside.

No symbols giving trading signals with high odds of success survived initial screening.

Two symbols with trading signals having low odds of success survived initial screening, one having broken out in either direction. Low-odds symbols are candidates for non-directional trades.

There are no prospects for trades coinciding with earnings announcements.

I shall do further analysis on Friday, May 13.

The present earnings season is trailing off and will conclude on May 20. The next earnings season will begin on July 11 and last for six weeks, through Aug. 19.

Odds On: The Making of an Evidence-Based Investor
by Matt Hall

Trading signal survivors






MON has sufficiently high implied volatility to support full analysis and possibly a trade. CL is below my minimum requirement for implied volatility but could conceivably reach that level after the opening bell on Friday.

I shall make a final decision on undertaking a full analysis on Friday and discuss it in the Agenda post.


The stocks in my analytical universe all have analyst coverage through the stock-ranking company Zacks Investment Research. Not all of the exchange-traded funds are so covered.

I screen the symbols for historical odds of a profitable signal in the direction of the breakout for the past 12 months.

For symbols whose odds of success are in the top or bottom thirds, suggesting a directional or non-directional trade, respectively, I next screen for 1) suitability of the options grid, including open interest of three figures or greater on the strike prices I would need to use to build a position and 2) the absence of an earnings announcement within the lifespan of the like options series I would trade.

I defer until the day of a possible trade a final screen for implied volatility in the 60th percentile or greater of its most recent range.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, May 12, 2016


Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.

I can be reached via comments on Private Trader posts or by email at


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Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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