I judge volatility as a percentile of its most recent range, and for trades, I require that it be in the 60th percentile or greater.
This is because part of my profit comes from collapsing volatility, especially after an earnings announcement. The lower the volatility, the less the collapse.
The highest volatility among the eight symbols is DVN in the 27th percentile. None are close enough to meeting my standard to have a reasonable chance of improving sufficiently during the day.
So, I plan no analysis today and won't open new positions.
A table of the prospects and their volatility percentiles:
-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, May 3, 2016
by Harry Domash
Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.
Elliott wave analysis tracks patterns in price movements. StockCharts has a good explainer. The principal practioner of Elliott wave analysis is Robert Prechter at Elliott Wave International. His book, Elliott Wave Principle, is a must-read for people interested in this form of analysis, as is his most recent publication, Visual Guide to Elliott Wave Trading.
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Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
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