Sunday, May 22, 2016

The Week Ahead: GDP, homes, trade, durables

The Bureau of Economic Analysis releases a second  estimate of gross domestic product on Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time. A significant deviation from last month's 1st estimate will be a market mover.

Three other major reports will hit the Street during the week: new home sales on Tuesday at 10 a.m.,  and international trade in goods on Wednesday and durable goods orders on Thursday, both at 8:30 a.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

Index of consumer expectations from the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey at 10 a.m. Friday.

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by Parag Khanna

Events arranged by day:

Monday: Purchasing Managers Institute manufacturing index flash report at 9:45 a.m.

Tuesday: New Home Sales at 10 a.m.

Wednesday: International Trade in Goods at 8:30 a.m. and petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

Thursday:  Durable goods orders and jobless claims, each at 8:30 a.m., pending home sales at 10 a.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: GDP at 8:30 a.m. and University of Michigan consumer sentiment at 10 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.51%, down 0.02% from a week earlier.

Treasury Debt

  • 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 52-week: Auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday
  • 2-year: Auction Tuesday 1 p.m.
  • 2-year floating rate: Auction Wednesday 1 p.m.
  • 5-year: Auction Wednesday 1 p.m.
  • 7-year: Auction Thursday 1 p.m.
  • None,
  • None.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen will deliver remarks on the occasion of her being presented with the Radcliffe Medal at Harvard University by the Radcliffe Institute for Advanced Study, on Friday at 10:30 a.m.

Fed Gov. Jerome Powell speaks on Thursday at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington at 12:15 p.m. His subject: Recent Economic Developments, the Productive Potential of the Economy, and Monetary Policy: Learning from the Recovery.

One other voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee takes to the podium: St. Louis Fed Pres. James Bullard on Monday and Thursday.

Two alternate FOMC members will speak: Philadelphia Fed Pres. Patrick Harker on Monday and Dallas Fed Pres. Robert Kaplan on Wednesday.

One other of the Fed glitterati takes to the podium: San Francisco Fed Pres. John Williams on Monday.

Analytical universe

This week I shall be analyzing new trading signals from among 473 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds.

Good trading!

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, May 22, 2016


Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.


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Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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