Tim Bovee, Private Trader: Thursday's Agenda

Thursday, April 28, 2016

Thursday's Agenda

Of the seven prospects on my desk this morning, all of them potential earnings plays, only one has sufficiently high implied volatility to meet my criteria for full analysis, and it, as it turns out, is a curious case due to bad calendar information that made it onto the future earnings list upon which I rely.

The one qualifying is AMZN, and I shall discuss it below. But first, a list of all the prospects and their implied volatility as a percentile of their most recent range. My minimum requirement is the 60th percentile.

sym	range %ile
AMZN	66
CVX	27
NWL	22
RRC	30
TRGP	16
WDC	39
XOM	7

Now, to AMZN. It often happens on that earnings calendar's contain dates that are market estimates of the next earnings publication date date based on when the last earnings were announced. Normally, the company announces the actual date in plenty of time for it to appear on the calendar.

That didn't happen in the case of AMZN. Perhaps they were late to announce a date, or perhaps they announced one and then changed.

In any case, the calendar I use for figuring out my own trading agenda, an excellent piece of work by Yahoo Finance!, had AMZN publishing earnings on April 21. As turns out, the publication date is April 28.

I placed a trade based on the in correct information, and that trade is still part of my portfolio and have updated the AMZN Analysis post from a week ago with a discussion of the possible actions and a final decision: Do nothing.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 28, 2016

Trader Vic - Methods of a Wall Street Maser
by Victor Sperandeo

References

Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.

Elliott wave analysis tracks patterns in price movements. StockCharts has a good explainer. The principal practioner of Elliott wave analysis is Robert Prechter at Elliott Wave International. His book, Elliott Wave Principle, is a must-read for people interested in this form of analysis, as is his most recent publication, Visual Guide to Elliott Wave Trading.

I can be reached via comments on Private Trader posts or by email at datnillc@gmail.com.

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Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.