Sunday, April 24, 2016

The Week Ahead: GDP, FOMC, homes, durables, trade, income

The first Gross Domestic Product estimate for the 1st quarter will be published on Thursday at 8:30 a.m.

The Federal Open Market Committee meets for two days, ending on Wednesday with an announcement of monetary policy on Wednesday at 2 p.m.

Other reports with potential impact: New home sales on Monday at 10 a.m., durable goods orders on Tuesday at 8:30 a.m., international trade in goods on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. and personal income and outlays on Friday at 8:30 a.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

The index of consumer expectations from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment report, at 10 a.m. Friday.

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Events arranged by day:

Monday: New home sales at 10 a.. and the Dallas Federal Reserve manufacturing survey of conditions in Texas at 10:30 a.m.

Tuesday: Durable goods orders at 8:30 a.m., the S&P Case-Shiller home price index with data for 20 metro areas at 9 a.m. and consumer confidence at 10 a.m.

Wednesday: International trade in goods at 8:30 a.m., petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m. and the FOMC monetary policy announcement at 2 p.m.

Thursday:  GDP and jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: Personal income and outlays and the employment cost index at 8:30 a.m., the chicago purchasing manages index at 9:45 a.m. and consumer sentiment at 10 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.47%, down 0.07% from a week earlier.

Treasury Debt

  • 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 52-week: Auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 2-year: Auction Monday 1 p.m.
  • 2-year floating rate: Auction Thursday 11:30 a.m.
  • 5-year: Auction Tuesday 1 p.m.
  • 7-year: Auction Thursday 1 p.m.
  • None.
  • None.

FOMC meetings, such as that ending with an announcement Wednesday at 2 p.m., often cast a veil of silence over the Fed glitterati.

So it is this week, with only a single speech on the schedule: Dallas Fed. Gov. Robert Kaplan, an FOMC alternate, on Friday.

Analytical universe

This week I shall be analyzing new trading signals from among 483 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds.

Good trading!

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 24, 2016


Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.


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Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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