Thursday, April 21, 2016

Thursday's Agenda

I have a rich harvest of prospective trades today, four coinciding with earnings announcements and two as a result of trading signals. As has so commonly been the case of late, all but one has failed final screening because of low implied volatility.

Among the potential earnings plays, AMZN alone has volatility above the 60th percentile of its most recent range. It has the added benefit of also being above the 60th for its annual range, an important reinforcement. MSFT, CAT and MCD are below the 60th and so fail to make the grade.

The two trading signal prospects, MS and PNC, each has extremely low volatility and no serious chance of rising sufficiently during the day.

I shall post a full analysis of AMZN this morning.

I'll keep a watch on MSFT, CAT and MCD during the day and if any redeem themselves through rising volatility then I shall post full analyses.

MS and PNC are irredeemably low in volatility and I shall not give them another thought.

A chart of the symbols and their implied volaitlity:

symrange %ileyear %ile

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, May 21, 2016

A book from my library →


Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.

Elliott wave analysis tracks patterns in price movements. StockCharts has a good explainer. The principal practioner of Elliott wave analysis is Robert Prechter at Elliott Wave International. His book, Elliott Wave Principle, is a must-read for people interested in this form of analysis, as is his most recent publication, Visual Guide to Elliott Wave Trading


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Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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