Sunday, April 10, 2016

The Week Ahead: Prices, retail, industry

Inflation takes the center of ballroom in the weekly dance of economic reporting, with the producer price index published on Wednesday and the consumer price index on Thursday, each at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

The Census Bureau will publish results of its retail sales survey on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m., and the Federal Reserve, its industrial production report on Friday at 9:15 a.m.

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Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

The index of consumer expectations from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment report, at 10 a.m. Friday.

Events arranged by day:

Tuesday: Import and export prices at 8:30 a.m. and the Treasury budget at 2 p.m.

Wednesday: Retail sales and producer prices at 8:30 a.m., business inventories at 10 a.m., petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m. and the Federal Reserve Beige Book at 2 p.m.

Thursday:  Consumer prices and jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: The Empire State manufacturing survey of conditions in New York at 8:30 a.m., industrial production at 9:15 a.m. and consumer sentiment at 10 a.m., Treasury's international capital at 4 p.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.57%, down 0.02% from a week earlier.

Treasury Debt

  • 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 3-year: Auction Tuesday 1 p.m.; settlement Friday.
  • 10-year: Auction Wednesday 1 p.m.; settlement Friday.
  • 30-year: Auction Thursday 1 p.m.; settlement Friday.
  • 5-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.

Fed. Gov. Jerome Powell, a member of the Federal Open Market Committee, testifies before the Senate Banking Subcommittee on Securities, Insurance and Investments and Economic Policy on Thursday at 10 a.m. His subject: Examining Current Trends and Changes in Fixed-Income Markets.

Four FOMC alternates will make appearances: Dallas Fed Pres. Robert Kaplan on Monday, Philadelphia Fed Pres. Patrick Harker and Richmond Fed Pres. Jeffrey Lacker on Tuesday and Chicago Fed Pres. Charles Evans on Friday.

A pair of other Fed glitterati will take the podium: San Francisco Fed Pres. John Williams on Tuesday and Atlanta Fed. Pres. Dennis Lockhart on Thursday.

Analytical universe

This week I shall be analyzing new trading signals from among 470 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds.

Good trading!

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 10, 2016


Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.


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Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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