Sunday, April 3, 2016

The Week Ahead: International trade, FOMC minutes

International trade figures will be published Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. New York time, the one major report of the week.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

Manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials from the factory orders report, at 10 a.m. Monday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

Manufacturers' new orders for non-defense capital goods from the factory orders report, at 10 a.m. Monday.

Events arranged by day:

Monday: Factory orders at 10 a.m.

Tuesday: International trade at 8:30 a.m. and the job openings and labor turnover survey and the Institute of Supply Management non-manufacturing index, both at 10 .m.

Wednesday: Petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m. and the FOMC minutes at 2 p.m.

Thursday:  Jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.62%, up 0.08% from a week earlier.

Treasury Debt

  • 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 3-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 10-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 30-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • None.

The Federal Open Market Committee will publish minutes of its March 16 meeting, adding context to its decision at that time to leave interest rates unchanged, largely due to concerns about foreign economies.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen appears on a panel with three former Fed chairs, Ben Bernanke, Alan Greenspan and Paul Volcker, at International House in New York City on Thursday.

Other FOMC members with scheduled appearances are Boston Fed Pres. Eric Rosengren on Monday and Kansas City Fed. Pres. Esther George on Thursday.

Three FOMC alternates will speak: Minneapolis Fed Pres. Neel Kashkari on Monday, Chicago Fed Pres. Charles Evans on Tuesday and Dallas Fed Pres. Rob Kaplan on Wednesday and Friday.

Cleveland Fed Pres. Loretta Mester, who is not on the FOMC this  year, takes to the podium on Wednesday

Analytical universe

This week I shall be analyzing new trading signals from among 492 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds.

Good trading!

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 3, 2016


Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.


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Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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