1/20 Watchlist

• Earnings plays:
• AAPL, CTSH, ENTR fall to confirmed neutrality.
• CRUS bull phase technicals weaken with a downside gap.
• TROW, TSM bull phase shows technical weakness.
• Other bull plays:
• SO moves to confirmed bull phase.
• MCO bull phase shows technical weakness.
• Diversification plays:
• Brazil to confirmed bear phase (EWZ).
• China falls to confirmed neutrality (FXI).
• Russian bull phase technicals weaken on downside gap (RSX).
• Emerging markets to confirmed bear phase (VWO).
• Zombies:
• AOD bull phase technicals weaken.
• FNMA moves to confirmed bear phase.

Below, earnings plays, other bull plays, bear plays, diversification plays and the futures file.

My holdings are marked with an asterisk (*). Signal dates are the first day of week in which the signal appeared. Slow trade holdings are listed separately, at the ending of this posting.

Earnings

	phase		pfe	pps	trend
AAPL*
CHRW
CRUS
CTSH
DECK
ENTR*
GOOG*
GRMN
LRCX*
TROW
TSM
VAR*

Key to earnings plays
(sorted by earnings date)

sym	roe	debt/ equity	div%	ex-div	earns
AAPL	35.3%	0.00x			jan18
GOOG	20.6%	0.00x			jan20
TROW	21.8%	0.00x	1.7%	dec28	jan24
LRCX	30.9%	0.01x			jan26
VAR	28.4%	0.03x			jan26
CRUS	33.6%	0.00x			jan27
TSM	30.7%	0.10x	3.6% ?	N/A	jan27
CHRW	44.8%	0.00x	1.5%	dec16	feb1
ENTR	21.3%	0.00x			feb2
CTSH	23.1%	0.00x			feb9
GRMN	27.0%	0.00x	4.9%	apr13	feb23
DECK	27.8%	0.00x			feb24

"M" following the div% means that dividends are paid monthly, "A" means annual payments, and no letter means quarterly payments.


Other bull plays

	phase		pfe	pps	trend
AROW
CVX
GE*
MCO*
PAYX*
SO

Key to other bull plays

sym	roe	debt/ equity	div%	ex-div	earns
AROW	14.9%	0.58	3.6%	mar	jan19
CVX	17.4%	0.10	3.3%	feb	jan28
GE	9.8%	4.28	12.0%	mar	jan21
MCO			1.5%	feb	feb3
PAYX	34.6%	0.00x	4.1%	jan	dec21
SO	13.5%	1.18	4.8%	jan	jan26

"M" following the div% means that dividends are paid monthly, "A" means annual payments, and no letter means quarterly payments.


Diversification plays

	phase		pfe	pps	trend
EPI
EWZ*
FXI*
RSX
VWO

Key to diversification plays

sym	underlying
EPI	India
EWZ	Brazil
FXI	China
RSX	Russia
VWO	Global

Wounded birds

	phase		pfe	pps	trend
FTR
MVO
NLY

Key to wounded birds

sym	roe	debt/ equity	div%	ex-div	earns
FTR	3.8%	1.55	8.0%	mar	feb21
MVO	81.6%	0.00	7.0%	jan
NLY	8.2%	6.42	15.0%	dec	jan

"M" following the div% means that dividends are paid monthly, "A" means annual payments, and no letter means quarterly payments.


Zombies

	phase		pfe	pps	trend
AOD*
FNMA*

Key to zombies

sym	roe	debt/ equity	div%	ex-div	earns
AOD	(fund)		11.3m%	dec22	n/a
FNMA					feb

"M" following the div% means that dividends are paid monthly, "A" means annual payments, and no letter means quarterly payments.


About the categories:

• Earnings plays: I think these are likely to rise sharply on a real or anticipated earnings surprise.
• Other bull plays: I think these are more likely to rise than fall; excludes earnings plays.
• Bear plays: I think these are more likely to fall than rise.
• Diversification plays: These don’t closely track the U.S. markets or are based on currencies other than the U.S. dollar.
• Wounded birds: Stocks I find fascinating but they each have an apparently fatal flaw.
• Zombies: These are failed leftovers from what seemed to be good ideas at the time. They stalk the Watchlist like zombies, tying up resources and frightening small children.

Table Abbreviations:

• pfe - Location of the polarized fractal efficiency line.
• pps - Person's Proprietary Signal mode.
• trend - Trend of the polarized fractal efficiency line.

Key to the PPS/PFE tables

column	color	meaning
phase		bull phase
		bear phase
pfe		+100 and above
		+50 to below 100
		0 to below +50
		below 0 to above -50
		-50 to above -100
		below -100
pps		bull confirmation
		bear confirmation
trend		uptrend
		no trend
		downtrend

More on the PFE/PPS analysis

Read a detailed explanation of the analytical tools and how they’re used, including trading rules.

Read about the backtesting used to develop the PFE/PPS strategy.

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.


No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.