Wednesday, January 12, 2011

1/13 Almanac

On Thursday, Jan. 13: International trade, producer prices, jobless claims.

There are 9 days before the January options expire, 37 the February and 65 the March.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .


Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session up 0.9% from the prior close. During the day SPY traversed 1.0% in a net move up of 0.3%.

The day's extremes: Open $128.21, high $128.72, low $127.46, close $128.58.

SPY closed above the DeMark pivots. The next DeMark pivots are $128.02-$129.28.

In total, 2.8 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchange, 1% fewer than on the prior trading day.

Five-year bond yields imply inflation at 2.27%, up one basis point from the prior trading day.

Econ reports:

A triple play of major econ reports, all released at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, an hour before the open.

International trade tracks the balance between imports and exports -- how much are we buying abroad vs. selling to foreigners. An imbalance on the buy side means jobs over there, and on the sell side, jobs here. (Well, simplified a bit, but that's pretty close.)

The producer price index tracks what it costs to make the products that, when sold, become the consumer price index, which will be out on Friday. So Thursday's producer prices are just a few steps up the path a product takes to reach the store shelf.

Weekly jobless claims track how many people are claiming unemployment benefits -- fewer means jobs are recovering, and more means we're still in trouble.

Something unexpected in any one of these reports could have an impact, but in two or three? Fireworks.

Also out, the natural gas report at 10:30 a.m., and the Fed balance sheet and money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Treasury auctions 30-year bonds at 1 p.m.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke gives a speech.

Texts of Federal Reserve speeches are usually posted an the agency's website a day or so after delivery.

Trading Calendar:

By my rules, at this point in the cycle I can trade February vertical, calendar, diagonal and butterfly spreads, iron condors and covered calls. Also, March straddles, calls and puts. And of course, shares are good at any time.

What I'm looking for:
  • A GE diagonal spread, maybe. Analysis.
  • Also, technical slow-trade entry opportunities for USO and XLI. I need a confirmation line upturn on the monthly chart in both cases.

Click here for stocks on my Watchlist.

Good trading!

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