Thursday, January 13, 2011

1/14 Almanac

On Friday, Jan. 14: Consumer prices, retail sales, industrial production.

There are 8 days before the January options expire, 36 the February and 64 the March.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .


Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session down 0.2% from the prior close. During the day SPY traversed 0.5% in a net move down of 0.2%.

The day's extremes: Open $128.63, high $128.69, low $128.05, close $128.37.

SPY traded entirely within the DeMark pivots. The next DeMark pivots are $127.89-$128.53.

In total, 2.8 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchange, 2% more than on the prior trading day.

Five-year bond yields imply inflation at 2.22%, down four basis point from the prior trading day.

Econ reports:

Three major econ reports:

Consumer prices, of course, is inflation/deflation, with many eyes looking closely for clues of either and their impact on monetary policy. Out at 8:30 a.m. Eastern.

At the same time, the Census Bureau releases the retail sales report, the broadest measure of how we are doing in our primary job: Supporting businesses so they can hire us more.

The Fed releases its survey of industrial production at 9:15 a.m. -- how the companies that make the stuff we buy are doing.

Lesser but still significant: University of Michigan consumer sentiment at 9:55 a.m., and the Census Bureau's business inventories survey at 10 a.m.

Also, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, gives a speech. So does Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker, a non-voting member of the FOMC.

Rosengren is a card-carrying inflation optimist, and Lacker is well to the pessimist end of the chart.

Texts of Federal Reserve speeches are usually posted an the agency's website a day or so after delivery.

Trading Calendar:

By my rules, at this point in the cycle I can trade February vertical, calendar, diagonal and butterfly spreads, iron condors and covered calls. Also, March straddles, calls and puts. And of course, shares are good at any time.

What I'm looking for:
  • A GE diagonal spread, maybe. Analysis.
  • Also, technical slow-trade entry opportunities for USO and XLI. I need a confirmation line upturn on the monthly chart in both cases.
  • Possible exit from slow trade MVO. Analysis.

Click here for stocks on my Watchlist.

Good trading!

No comments:

Post a Comment