Wednesday, January 26, 2011

1/27 Almanac

On Thursday, Jan. 27: Durable goods, pending home sales, jobless claims.

There are 23 days before the February options expire, 51 the March and 79 the April.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .


Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session up 0.4% from the prior close. During the day SPY traversed 0.6% in a net move up of 0.1%.

The day's extremes: Open $129.49, high $130.05, low $129.23, close $129.67.

SPY closed within the DeMark pivots after trading above their range. The next DeMark pivots are $128.64-$129.81.

In total, 3.1 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchange, 7% more than on the prior trading day.

Five-year bond yields imply inflation at 2.23%, up two basis points from the prior trading day.

Econ reports:

Three potential market-movers.

Two monthly reports: Durable goods orders from the Census Bureau at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, and pending home sales from the Realtor's association at 10 a.m.

Durable goods are important because it takes confidence in the recovery to buy these big-ticket items. More confidence, more spending, the economy picks up, producing more confidence, more spending, and on and on in a seemingly endless rise in prosperity, until the music dies.

Pending home sales track home sales/purchases where the contract has been signed but the deal hasn't closed. It's another confidence measure.

And weekly jobless claims, at 8:30 a.m., tracks new applications for unemployment benefits. Frankly, hasn't everyone that's going to be laid off already been laid off, so where's the room for new claims? Just saying.

The federal Energy Information Administration reports on natural gas at 10:30 a.m.

The Federal Reserve releases its balance sheet and money-supply numbers at 4:30 p.m.

Treasury auctions 7-year notes at 1 p.m.

Trading Calendar:

By my rules, at this point in the cycle I can trade February vertical, calendar, diagonal and butterfly spreads, iron condors and covered calls. Also, April or later straddles, calls and puts. And of course, shares are good at any time.

What I'm looking for:
  • AAPL:Bull entry on an adx uptick.
  • SLW: Bear entry based on the price-channel chart.
  • XLE, XLP: Possibly add to my existing positions.

Click here for stocks on my Watchlist.

Good trading!

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