Wednesday, January 19, 2011

1/20 Almanac

On Thursday, Jan. 20: Jobless claims, existing homes, Philly Fed.

There are 2 days before the January options expire, 30 the February and 58 the March.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .


Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session down 0.8% from the prior close. During the day SPY traversed 1.3% in a net move down of 0.9%.

The day's extremes: Open $129.41, high $129.54, low $127.91, close $128.25.

SPY traded above the DeMark pivots before closing within their range. The next DeMark pivots are $127.27-$128.90.

In total, 3.2 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchange, 1% fewer than on the prior trading day.

Five-year bond yields imply inflation at 2.22%, down two basis points from the prior trading day.

Econ reports:

The Labor Dept. releases weekly jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. This is the most frequent readout on the health of the jobs pictures, and so can be a market-mover.

The National Association of Realtors announces existing home sales numbers at 10 a.m. By far the larger portion of homes sold are existing -- they're not being bought by their first-ever owner -- so this report can also move markets.

And oddly, another potential market mover is the Philadelphia Fed survey of general business conditions in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve District. Traders look at it as an indicator of manufacturing trends. Out at 10 a.m.

Also scheduled, leading indicators at 10 a.m. (one of my favorites), natural gas at 10:30 a.m., petroleum inventories at 11 a.m., and the Fed balance sheet and money supply report at 4:30 p.m.

Treasury will auction 10-year inflation-indexed notes (TIPS) at 1 p.m.

Trading Calendar:

By my rules, at this point in the cycle I can trade February vertical, calendar, diagonal and butterfly spreads, iron condors and covered calls. Also, April straddles, calls and puts. And of course, shares are good at any time.

What I'm looking for:
  • Bull-side Entry on XLI. I'm waiting for a price pullback.

Click here for stocks on my Watchlist.

Good trading!

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