Tuesday, October 5, 2010

CMG Watch

Fast food chain Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) set a new swing high today, meeting my requires for entry. The rise was accompanied by a move to bull phase by Person's Proprietary Signal.

CMG $178.98

In my analysis posted Sept. 29, I wrote of CMG, "The time between pullbacks have ranged from seven trading days to 15 trading days. This suggests that patience will reap a quick reward."

That reward came today, with a push up to $179.50, eclipsing the swing high set on Sept. 30. The pullback feel short of the 20-day moving average, but it instead bounced from a level about 1% above the average. The upward move came on higher volume.

On the Person's chart, CMG is trading below the upper weekly pivot level, so by that analysis it has a ways to go to the upside.

Person's Table
ppspps openupper pivotlower pivot
CMG $178.98 $174.37 oct5 $182.58 +2.0% $167.11 -6.6%

Today's swing high is in fact an all-time high for CMG, making it what I call a blue-sky stock. Given that the current rise began in November 2008, the stock is trading well above serious downside resistance.

The best on the chart is a swing low of $127.30 on July 20, and of course the 20-day moving average isn't too far away.

Reversal Levels
  • $179.50, +0.3% (all-time high)
  • $178.98 <== You are here.
  • $167.11, -6.6% (20-day moving average)
  • $130.55, -27.1% (200-day moving average)
  • $127.50, -28.9% (swing low)
Bottom line: Today was an entry point for me, and Wednesday might produce a pullback that would mean and even better entry. Earnings will be announced on Oct. 21 after the close.

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment. No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
  • pps - Person's Proprietary Signal.
  • psar - Parabolic Stop and Reverse
  • ma20 - 20-day moving average
  • ma200 - 200-day moving average
  • macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence
  • sto - Fast Stochastic
About the glance: 

The colors indicate the state of each signal.
  • trend: Determined by the 5-day moving average, green for up, red for down, yellow for sideways.
  • sto: green for bull, red for bear.
  • sto zone: green for overbought (80+), red for oversold (20-), yellow for neutral zone
  • psar, pps, macd: green for bull mode, red for bear.
  • macd trend: green for rising, yellow for sideways, red for falling.
  • neutral.
  • ma20, ma200: green for above the average by more than 1%, red for below the average by more than 1%, yellow for within 1% either side of the average.

No comments:

Post a Comment