Wednesday, October 13, 2010

10/13 Forex

  • EUR/USD bear signal ghosts away, leaving the pair in bull phase.

ppspps openupper pivotlower pivot
EUR/USD US$1.39 US$1.27 oct13 US$1.40 US$1.30
USD/JPY¥82 ¥85.08 sep22 ¥85 ¥82
GBP/USD US$1.58 US$1.59 oct12 US$1.60 US$1.54
EUR/JPY ¥114 ¥107.82 sep14 ¥117 ¥108
USD/CAD C$1.00 C$1.03 sep24 C$1.06 C$1.02
USD/MXN M$12.39 M$13.07 sep2 M$13.06 M$12.28

One characteristic of the principal tool used in this analysis, Person's Proprietary Signal, is that it is unstable: Signals can melt away during the day, a phenomenon the tool's developer terms "ghosting".

That's what happened to the EUR/USD pair on Tuesday. It's a good argument for confirming the Person's signal with some other analytical tool. I use the Heikin-Ashi candlesticks confirmed by a downturn in the 8-day exponential moving average. Although the Heikin-Ashi turned bearish on EUR/USD, the 8-day ema confirmation never came.

The analysis uses the daily Person's Proprietary Signal, developed by John Person, and the monthly Person's Pivot, which he also developed.

These are black box signals -- the "proprietary" means that Mr. Person knows how they work under the hood, and I don't. But they have shown a fair degree of success in identifying good entry and exit points, and I find them useful.

On the glance, "pps open" means the price at the start of trading in the United States on the day the signal appeared.

I also refer to the Heikin-Ashia trend or candlestick. The Heikin-Ashi averages six days for high, low, open and close, signalling uptrend if the close is in the upper half of the range and downtrend if it is in the lower half. The signal for opening and closing positions require confirmation through a turn in the 8-day exponential moving average.

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

No comments:

Post a Comment