Thursday, October 21, 2010

10/21 Forex

  • U.S. dollar returns to bear phase against the Mexican peso after a brief bullish whipsaw (USD/MXN)

ppspps openupper pivotlower pivot
EUR/USD US$1.40 US$1.39 oct19 US$1.40 US$1.30
AUD/USD US$0.99 US$1.01 oct19 US$1.00 US$0.91
USD/CAD C$1.02 C$1.01 oct18 C$1.06 C$1.02
USD/JPY¥81 ¥85.08 sep22 ¥85 ¥82
GBP/CHF C$1.52 C$1.56 sep21 C$1.58 C$1.52
GBP/USD US$1.58 US$1.59 oct19 US$1.60 US$1.54
EUR/JPY ¥114 ¥107.82 sep14 ¥117 ¥108
AUD/JPY ¥80 ¥80 oct19 ¥83 ¥77
USD/CHFSF0.96 SF0.96 oct19 SF1.02 SF0.96
NZD/USD US$0.75 US$0.75 sep US$0.75 US$0.72
USD/MXN M$12.34 M$12.39 oct21 M$13.06 M$12.28

The USD/MXN signals are a bit muddy because of ghosting, but here's how it stands, I think:
  • The pair moved to bull phase on Tuesday.
  • A switch to bear phase showed intraday on Wdnesday but eventually ghosted away, leaving the pair in bull phase.
  • A new bear phase is showing this morning with a 0.7% intraday price decline.

The bull phase, then, lasted two days and produced a 0.1% price decline.

The analysis uses the daily Person's Proprietary Signal, developed by John Person, and the monthly Person's Pivot, which he also developed.

These are black box signals -- the "proprietary" means that Mr. Person knows how they work under the hood, and I don't. But they have shown a fair degree of success in identifying good entry and exit points, and I find them useful.

On the glance, "pps open" means the price at the start of trading in the United States on the day the signal appeared.

I also refer to the Heikin-Ashia trend or candlestick. The Heikin-Ashi averages six days for high, low, open and close, signalling uptrend if the close is in the upper half of the range and downtrend if it is in the lower half. The signal for opening and closing positions require confirmation through a turn in the 8-day exponential moving average.

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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