Monday, October 18, 2010

10/18 Forex

  • U.S. dollar shows bull phase against its Candadian counterpart (USD/CAD).

ppspps openupper pivotlower pivot
EUR/USD US$1.39 US$1.27 oct13 US$1.40 US$1.30
AUD/USD US$0.99 US$0.89 aug27 US$1.00 US$0.91
USD/CAD C$1.02 C$1.01 oct18 C$1.06 C$1.02
USD/JPY¥81 ¥85.08 sep22 ¥85 ¥82
GBP/CHF C$1.52 C$1.56 sep21 C$1.58 C$1.52
GBP/USD US$1.59 US$1.59 oct14 US$1.60 US$1.54
EUR/JPY ¥113 ¥107.82 sep14 ¥117 ¥108
AUD/JPY ¥80 ¥81 oct15 ¥83 ¥77
USD/CHFSF0.96 SF1.00 sep21 SF1.02 SF0.96
NZD/USD US$0.75 US$0.73 sep US$0.75 US$0.72
USD/MXN M$12.43 M$13.07 sep2 M$13.06 M$12.28

The USD/CAD bull phase was accompanied by an open above the lower monthly pivot level on the Person's chart. However, after rising 1.1% intraday, the price retraced about half of the rise, and I would not be surprised if the bull signal ghosts away later in the day.

The preceding bear phase lasted 11 U.S. market days and produced a price decline of 0.7% USD/CAD in recent months has tended to show longish bear phases with the occasional whipsaw to the bull side.

The analysis uses the daily Person's Proprietary Signal, developed by John Person, and the monthly Person's Pivot, which he also developed.

These are black box signals -- the "proprietary" means that Mr. Person knows how they work under the hood, and I don't. But they have shown a fair degree of success in identifying good entry and exit points, and I find them useful.

On the glance, "pps open" means the price at the start of trading in the United States on the day the signal appeared.

I also refer to the Heikin-Ashia trend or candlestick. The Heikin-Ashi averages six days for high, low, open and close, signalling uptrend if the close is in the upper half of the range and downtrend if it is in the lower half. The signal for opening and closing positions require confirmation through a turn in the 8-day exponential moving average.

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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