Monday, October 25, 2010

10/26 Almanac

On Tuesday, Oct. 26: Home prices, consumer confidence.

There are 25 days before the November options expire, 53 the December and 88 the January.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .


Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session up 0.3% from the prior close. During the day SPY traversed 1.0% in a net move down of 0.4%.

The day's extremes: Open $119.14, high $118.76, low $118.61, close $118.70.

SPY traded closed within the DeMark pivots after trading above their range. The next DeMark pivots are $118.08-$119.23.

In total, 2.7 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchanges, 13% fewer than on the prior trading day.

Five-year bond yields imply inflation will 1.73%.

Econ reports:

The S&P Case-Shiller home price index, out at 9 a.m. Eastern, tracks -- no surprise -- home prices. It's an occasional market-mover, but not a strong one.

The Conference Board's consumer confidence survey is out at 10 a.m. With everyone proclaiming that a resumption of consumer spending is a basis for stronger job growth, consumer confidence is a high-profile report these days. Since only confident consumers can stride up to the plate and hit a home run for America's consumer economy.

Also out, retails reports at 7:45 a.m. and 8:55 a.m. from ICSC-Goldman and Redbook, respetively. The FHFA house price index and the State Street investor confidence index, which actually tracks portfolio risk rather than opinion. Way cool! Both at 10 a.m.

Trading Calendar:

By my rules, at this point in the cycle I can trade November vertical, calendar, diagonal and diagonal spreads, and also iron condors. I can sell November covered calls, and trade January straddles, calls and puts. And of course, shares are good at any time.

What I'm looking for:
  • NLY: A rise above $18.40 or so for re-entry on the bull side. Analysis.
  • IDCC: A break above $30.67 for entry on the bull side. Analysis.

Watchlist stocks:
  • Bull: CMG, ENP, IDCC, LVS, MO.
  • Income: AOD, MRF, NLY.

Good trading!

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