On Tuesday, Feb. 1: Manufacturing, auto sales, construction spending.
There are 18 days before the February options expire, 46 the March and 74 the April.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
Monday, January 31, 2011
SBUX Watch
Starbucks Corp.'s (SBUX) present slide began on Jan. 26, the day earnings were released, as the company said it's coffee would cost more in 2011, and also, coincident with this report from Reuters that Brazil is on the verge of overtaking the U.S. next year as the world's largest coffee-consuming nation, bidding up the cost of beans.
SBUX lowered its earnings expectations a bit, but said that it had already bought coffee a few months into 2012, and besides, customers weren't resistant to price increases.
Today, on the fourth after the bad news on the bean front, price action on the chart shows SBUX setting up a potential reversal with a spinning top candlestick pattern.
SBUX lowered its earnings expectations a bit, but said that it had already bought coffee a few months into 2012, and besides, customers weren't resistant to price increases.
Today, on the fourth after the bad news on the bean front, price action on the chart shows SBUX setting up a potential reversal with a spinning top candlestick pattern.
| phase | pfe | pps | trend | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SBUX |
1/31 Channels
1/31 Watchlist
Things have turned so bearish that the idea of "bull play" at this point is sort of a joke.
The Watchlist: Stocks that I’m watching for a variety of reasons. The sections are bull plays, bear plays, diversification, wounded birds and zombies.
- Bull plays:
- CVX to neutral phase on signal divergence.
- Wounded birds:
- MVO to neutral phase on a signal divergence.
The Watchlist: Stocks that I’m watching for a variety of reasons. The sections are bull plays, bear plays, diversification, wounded birds and zombies.
Weekend Postings
Three postings over the weekend:
The slow-trading analysis off the monthly charts, now renamed and split into two parts: Slow Trading: Indicators and Forex, and Slow Trading: Watchlist.
Also, a new lineup for the price channel analysis, including changes in the presentation: 1/29 Channels.
The slow-trading analysis off the monthly charts, now renamed and split into two parts: Slow Trading: Indicators and Forex, and Slow Trading: Watchlist.
Also, a new lineup for the price channel analysis, including changes in the presentation: 1/29 Channels.
Sunday, January 30, 2011
Slow Trading: Watchlist
Watchlist analysis from the monthly charts. The listings have been completely revised in order to overlap the price channel analysis, done separately on the daily charts.
Slow Trading: Indicators and Forex
Indicators and Forex analysis from the monthly charts. No phase changes compared to last week.
My holdings are marked with an asterisk (*). Signal dates are the first day of week in which the signal appeared. Slow trade holdings are listed separately, at the ending of this posting.
Indicators
Stocks and Rates
My holdings are marked with an asterisk (*). Signal dates are the first day of week in which the signal appeared. Slow trade holdings are listed separately, at the ending of this posting.
Indicators
Stocks and Rates
| phase | pfe | pps | trend | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | |||||
| QQQQ | |||||
| VIX | |||||
| TLT | |||||
| JNK |
Saturday, January 29, 2011
1/29 Channels
The new price channels analysis lineup. I'm struck by how bearish things have become. That was also the case last week.
Bull Positions
Stopped: XLU. Removed GE, MU, XOM for age.
Issues that I hold positions in are marked with an asterisk (*).
Bull Positions
Stopped: XLU. Removed GE, MU, XOM for age.
| sym | bday | blevel | stop | adx ≥40? | 2-day? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORCL | jan20 | $32.27 | $31.42 | ||
| WMT | jan20 | $55.72 | $55.07 | ||
| XLU | jan21 | $32.11 | $31.83 |
Friday, January 28, 2011
1/28 Morningline Update
An update on the indicators followed in the Morningline, in light of today's sharp market slump.
The downturn is being blamed on Egypt's political problems for some reason. Here's the test: When was the last time, prior to this week, that you thought about Egypt when placing a trade? ... Thought so. Maybe we need to look elsewhere for the cause.
Stocks and Rates
The downturn is being blamed on Egypt's political problems for some reason. Here's the test: When was the last time, prior to this week, that you thought about Egypt when placing a trade? ... Thought so. Maybe we need to look elsewhere for the cause.
- S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 drop to neutrality (SPY, QQQQ).
- Treasury long-term bonds rise to neutrality (TLT).
- Corporate high-yield debt, crude oil turn neutral on signal divergence (JNK, USO).
Stocks and Rates
| phase | pfe | pps | trend | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | |||||
| QQQQ | |||||
| VIX | |||||
| TLT | |||||
| JNK |
1/31 Almanac
On Monday, Jan. 31: Personal income and consumption.
There are 19 days before the February options expire, 47 the March and 75 the April.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
There are 19 days before the February options expire, 47 the March and 75 the April.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
SBUX Watch
The coffee shop chain Starbucks Corp. (SBUX) pierced the lower 20-day price-channel line at $31.74, signalling a move to neutral phase and, under my rules, requiring any bull positions to be closed.
The company entered bull phase on Oct. 12, 2010 with a $26.57 breakout level, and moved from there to a swing high of $33.78 on Jan. 25.
See my detailed write-up on SBUX posted Thursday.
The company entered bull phase on Oct. 12, 2010 with a $26.57 breakout level, and moved from there to a swing high of $33.78 on Jan. 25.
See my detailed write-up on SBUX posted Thursday.
1/28 Channels
I'll be reworking the line-up of potential plays and the method of presentation over the weekend.
- BBD breaks out to the bear side.
1/28 Watchlist
Note: I'll be reworking the Watchlist over the weekend. Look for an altered line-up on Monday.
Below, earnings plays, other bull plays, bear plays, diversification plays and the futures file.
- Earnings plays:
- CRUS, DECK rise to neutrality.
- TSM to bear phase
- Other bull plays:
- PAYX to neutrality on signal divergence.
- Diversification plays:
- Russia falls to neutrality (RSX).
- Wounded birds:
- NLY to bull phase (but it has been whipsawing like crazy).
Below, earnings plays, other bull plays, bear plays, diversification plays and the futures file.
1/28 Forex
Thursday, January 27, 2011
1/28 Almanac
On Friday, Jan. 28: Gross domestic product.
There are 22 days before the February options expire, 50 the March and 78 the April.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
There are 22 days before the February options expire, 50 the March and 78 the April.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
LRCX Watch
The wafer-fab equipment company Lam Research Corp. (LRCX) announced a 13.6% upside earnings surprise after the close on Wednesday. The market responded with a price drop. The company issued guidance that suggested a bit of weakness.
(This is the third time today that I've written "earnings surprise ... price drop". What's with you people? You know who you are! The Cylon traders who actually control the markets!!)
(This is the third time today that I've written "earnings surprise ... price drop". What's with you people? You know who you are! The Cylon traders who actually control the markets!!)
| phase | pfe | pps | trend | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LRCX |
VAR Watch
The medical gear company Varian Medical Systems Inc. (VAR) annonced 9.7% earnings surise after the close on Wednesday, but coupled that with an outlook statement that wasn't all that far from the consensus.
Also, VAR announced a huge order, and there was also some analyst target-raising going on. A busy, busy couple of days.
The net result in today's trading was a huge 5.1% price swing that has ended with a retracement of about one-third from the low and a current price not too far from where the stock opened this morning.
Also, VAR announced a huge order, and there was also some analyst target-raising going on. A busy, busy couple of days.
The net result in today's trading was a huge 5.1% price swing that has ended with a retracement of about one-third from the low and a current price not too far from where the stock opened this morning.
| phase | pfe | pps | trend | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAR |
SBUX Watch
Bad news/good news. The coffee house chain Starbucks Corp. (SBUX) showed a 25% upside surprise when it released earnings after the close on Wednesday. The price had already dropped, prior to the announcement, and opened down still further today because the company foresees some weakness.
The price, however, has added to the good news by retracing much of its decline.
On Wednesday I wrote of the earnings announcement, "It will be case of immense gratification or gross disappointment, almost instantly." As it turns out, it has been a case of both.
The price, however, has added to the good news by retracing much of its decline.
On Wednesday I wrote of the earnings announcement, "It will be case of immense gratification or gross disappointment, almost instantly." As it turns out, it has been a case of both.
| phase | pfe | pps | trend | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SBUX |
1/27 Channels
- ORCL, XOM promoted to bull position (XOM's confirmation is weak).
- SDS promoted to bear position on weak confirmation.
- Bull play SBUX stopped on Wednesday fall, but moves back above stop/loss level post-earnings today. But the adx declines. My verdict: "Sell! Sell! Sell!"
- Bear plays ABX, GDX, SLW and YHOO stopped.
- UAL, WDC pull back from near breakthrough on the bear side.
1/27 Watchlist
- Earnings plays:
- CRUS rises to neutral phase on large earnings surprise.
- Go Figure! Department:
- LRCX price drops after upside earnings surprise; weak outlook.
- VAR price also drops after upside earnings surprise, strong forecast.
- Other bull plays:
- SO to neutral phase.
- Diversification plays:
- Russian whipsaws back to bull phase (RSX).
- Zombies:
- AOD to neutral phase.
USD/JPY Watch
It's always a bummer when your credit rating takes a hit. Just ask Japan, who was downgraded by Standard & Poor's from AA to AA-.
The yen, unsurprisingly, also took a hit, popping the (USD/JPY) currency pair out of bear phase into neutrality on the pfe/pps analysis, with trading that has spanned ¥1.192, or 1.5%, in the five hours since midnight U.S. Eastern time.
The yen, unsurprisingly, also took a hit, popping the (USD/JPY) currency pair out of bear phase into neutrality on the pfe/pps analysis, with trading that has spanned ¥1.192, or 1.5%, in the five hours since midnight U.S. Eastern time.
| phase | pfe | pps | trend | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY |
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
1/27 Almanac
On Thursday, Jan. 27: Durable goods, pending home sales, jobless claims.
There are 23 days before the February options expire, 51 the March and 79 the April.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
There are 23 days before the February options expire, 51 the March and 79 the April.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
1/26 Channels
- LCC stopped on earnings-day gap.
- New to bull positions: XLU.
- New to bear positions: XRX, YHOO.
- Bull failures: BBT, MS.
- Removed from bear watch: UAL, on an earnings gap up.
1/26 Watchlist
- Earnings plays:
- TSM falls into neutral phase.
- GRMN bull phase confirmed -- three pps confirmation changes in six days.
- AAPL plunge into neutrality weakens.
- Other bull plays:
- GE, MCO return to confirmed bull phase.
- Diversification plays:
- Russia falls to neutral phase (RSX).
- Wounded birds:
- NLY falls back into bear zone, but it's unconfirmed.
Below, earnings plays, other bull plays, bear plays, diversification plays and the futures file.
Tuesday, January 25, 2011
1/26 Almanac
On Wednesday, Jan. 26: The Fed Speaks, new home sales.
There are 24 days before the February options expire, 52 the March and 80 the April.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
There are 24 days before the February options expire, 52 the March and 80 the April.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
MU Watch
Memory-maker Micron Technology Inc. (MU) is a question of how late is late. It moved to bull phase on the price channel chart on Jan. 12, messed around sideways for five days thereafter, and then moved to higher level and, if stock prices can be said to have desires, seems to be wanting to continue its upward rise.
Entry is not at all late on the pfe/pps chart, which moved to bull phase on Jan. 21 but the stock has traded in a range in the two days following.
Entry is not at all late on the pfe/pps chart, which moved to bull phase on Jan. 21 but the stock has traded in a range in the two days following.
| phase | pfe | pps | trend | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MU |
SBUX Watch
The coffee company Starbucks Corp. (SBUX) has broken through the 55-day upper price channel with a rising adx, providing an entry signal on the bull side. SBUX announces earnings on Wednesday after the close, so it will be case of immense gratification or gross disappointment, almost instantly.
| phase | pfe | pps | trend | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SBUX |
1/25 Channels
- New bull position listings: GE, MU, SBUX, SLW.
- New bear position listings: ABX, AMR, GDX, GG, LCC, MNKD, SLW, WIN.
- Bull position removal: UNG (analysis).
- BBT bull move fails on trade below breakout-day low, removed from consideration.
- GIS pulls back from near-breakout level, removed.
- SLW, WIN break out to the bear side; two-day rejection rule in place (Exit 1 on the rules).
- DAL bear breakout stopped; removed.
1/25 Watchlist
- Earnings plays:
- CRUS to bear phase; earnings on Thursday.
- LRCX to bull phase; earnings on Wednesday.
- TSM moves to neutral phase; earnings on Friday.
- Other bull plays:
- GE returns to bull phase after a four-day whipsaw.
- MCO moves to bull phase, but it's unconfirmed and very weak.
- Wounded birds:
- MVO to bear phase.
- Zombies:
- FNMA has doubled in price since last Thursday's open.
Below, earnings plays, other bull plays, bear plays, diversification plays and the futures file.
Monday, January 24, 2011
1/25 Almanac
On Tuesday, Jan. 25: Consumer confidence, metro-area housing markets.
There are 25 days before the February options expire, 53 the March and 81 the April.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
There are 25 days before the February options expire, 53 the March and 81 the April.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
UNG Watch
The exchange-traded fund that tracks natural gas prices (UNG), fell sharply one day after a price-channel bull breakout, triggering closure. The stop/loss was set at $6.26, or 5¢ below the low on breakout day.
The decline brings UNG back within a sideways trend that has held force since late October. See my write-up posted Saturday for price levels.
The decline brings UNG back within a sideways trend that has held force since late October. See my write-up posted Saturday for price levels.
| phase | pfe | pps | trend | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNG |
1/24 Channels
- Bull:
- ORCL drops below breakout level on second day; close below $32.27 would force an exit.
- Bear:
- YHOO pierces lower 55-line by 1¢ but the breakout is unconfirmed: No entry.
Here are the issues that I’m tracking using channel analysis.
1/24 Watchlist
- Earnings plays:
- DECK, ENTR to confirmed bear phase.
- GOOG falls to neutral phase after a large upside earnings surprise.
- GRMN bull phase weakens.
- Other bull plays:
- SO bull phase weakens.
- No new data available for AROW due to technical problems at my broker, Think Or Swim.
- Diversification plays:
- China to confirmed bear phase (FXI).
- India bear phase weakens (EPI).
- Wounded birds:
- NLY to neutral phase.
- Zombies:
- FNMA to confirmed bull phase.
Below, earnings plays, other bull plays, bear plays, diversification plays and the futures file.
Changes
I'll be adding a new series beginning day, called Channels. It will show the stocks I'm tracking using the price channel/ADX system that I backtested over the weekend. (See "Price Channel Backtesting to read the results of my testing.)
Typically, I'll post channels following the Watchlist.
\
Typically, I'll post channels following the Watchlist.
\
Sunday, January 23, 2011
Weeklies
- CRUS bull phase weakens as confirmation ghosts away.
- Emerging markets slips back to neutrality (VWO).
- FNMA not updated due to technical problems.
My holdings are marked with an asterisk (*). Signal dates are the first day of week in which the signal appeared. Slow trade holdings are listed separately, at the ending of this posting.
Indicators
Stocks and Rates
| phase | pfe | pps | trend | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | |||||
| QQQQ | |||||
| VIX | |||||
| TLT | |||||
| JNK |
Saturday, January 22, 2011
UNG Watch
The U.S. Natural Gas Fund (UNG), an exchange-traded fund tracking the price of natural gas, pierced the upper line of the 55-day price channel on Friday, triggering bull phase under the my price-channel trading rules.
The upper line is at $6.39, and UNG reached a high of $6.48 before closing at $6.40, a penny above the breakout level.
The upper line is at $6.39, and UNG reached a high of $6.48 before closing at $6.40, a penny above the breakout level.
Price Channel Backtesting
I've added price channel analysis to my suite of technical tools used to analyze stocks.
Read "The Guide" for an explanation of price channels and the rules I'm using in trading.
I tested the last two years worth of data on the exchange-traded fund that tracks the S&P 500. It's ticker symbol is SPY.
I'll go immediately to the bottom line:
Read "The Guide" for an explanation of price channels and the rules I'm using in trading.
I tested the last two years worth of data on the exchange-traded fund that tracks the S&P 500. It's ticker symbol is SPY.
I'll go immediately to the bottom line:
Friday, January 21, 2011
1/24 Almanac
On Monday, Jan. 24: Treasury auctions, no econ.
There are 26 days before the February options expire, 55 the March and 83 the April.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
There are 26 days before the February options expire, 55 the March and 83 the April.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
Channel Trading
I'll be doing something new in parallel with the pfe/pps analysis that I'm now using as my principal tool.
It's based on a book by Courtney Smith, How to Make a Living Trading Foreign Exchange: A Guaranteed Income for Life (Wiley Trading).
He's focused on forex, but his analytical techniques are good for any liquid market. He bases them on the Turtle Trading style of trend following.
It's based on a book by Courtney Smith, How to Make a Living Trading Foreign Exchange: A Guaranteed Income for Life (Wiley Trading).
He's focused on forex, but his analytical techniques are good for any liquid market. He bases them on the Turtle Trading style of trend following.
1/21 Watchlist
- Earnings plays:
- CRUS, CTSH to confirmed bear phase.
- LRCX to bull phase, but it is unconfirmed.
- TROW bull phase weakens.
- Other bull plays:
- MCO to bear phase, unconfirmed.
- GE strengthens in earnings-driven whipsaw into neutrality.
- Diversification plays:
- Brazil moves to neutrality, but it is unconfirmed (EWZ)
- Wounded birds:
- NLY to confirmed bear phase.
- Zombies:
- FNMA moves to confirmed neutrality on Washington policy debate.
Below, earnings plays, other bull plays, bear plays, diversification plays and the futures file.
Thursday, January 20, 2011
Lessons Learned
Some trades result in losses. This is a fact of life in the markets.
As a trader, whenever I have a loss, even a small one, I go back over the trade to see what lessons I can learn from it.
In the case of Thursday's morning's broad bearish swing, my losses came on positions that I had opened on stocks that had mature bull phases. By mature, I mean that the stocks had been in bull phase for awhile, and in some cases, in fact, the main indicator I use, the parabolic fractal efficiency (pfe) line, had peaked above 100 and was flatlining.
So, the lesson I take from this: The less risky trade is to open a position upon a new phase change. Opening into a mature phase runs the risk of a turnabout while the price is still near the entry level.
As a trader, whenever I have a loss, even a small one, I go back over the trade to see what lessons I can learn from it.
In the case of Thursday's morning's broad bearish swing, my losses came on positions that I had opened on stocks that had mature bull phases. By mature, I mean that the stocks had been in bull phase for awhile, and in some cases, in fact, the main indicator I use, the parabolic fractal efficiency (pfe) line, had peaked above 100 and was flatlining.
So, the lesson I take from this: The less risky trade is to open a position upon a new phase change. Opening into a mature phase runs the risk of a turnabout while the price is still near the entry level.
1/21 Almanac
On Friday, Jan. 21: Nothing. Nada. Zip.
This is the last trading day for January options. There are 29 days before the February options expire, 57 the March and 85 the April.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
This is the last trading day for January options. There are 29 days before the February options expire, 57 the March and 85 the April.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
Sea Change
The stock markets underwent a broad weakening this morning, with moves from bull phase to neutrality or even down into bear phase all over the map. It was one of those "red sky in the morning, sailor take warning" sort of days. A change in the weather. A sea change in the markets.
As a trader, I pride myself on my stock picking. However, there are days when the individual stock means absolutely nothing, as all stocks in the market prick up their little lemming ears and as one, start heading toward the cliffs.
As a trader, I pride myself on my stock picking. However, there are days when the individual stock means absolutely nothing, as all stocks in the market prick up their little lemming ears and as one, start heading toward the cliffs.
1/20 Watchlist
- Earnings plays:
- AAPL, CTSH, ENTR fall to confirmed neutrality.
- CRUS bull phase technicals weaken with a downside gap.
- TROW, TSM bull phase shows technical weakness.
- Other bull plays:
- SO moves to confirmed bull phase.
- MCO bull phase shows technical weakness.
- Diversification plays:
- Brazil to confirmed bear phase (EWZ).
- China falls to confirmed neutrality (FXI).
- Russian bull phase technicals weaken on downside gap (RSX).
- Emerging markets to confirmed bear phase (VWO).
- Zombies:
- AOD bull phase technicals weaken.
- FNMA moves to confirmed bear phase.
Below, earnings plays, other bull plays, bear plays, diversification plays and the futures file.
1/20 Morningline
- S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 bull phase shows technical weakness (SPY, QQQQ).
- Fear index rises to confirmed neutrality (VIX).
- Corporate high-yield debt falls to confirmed neutrality (JNK).
- Crude oil neutrality confirmed, but a large downside gap suggests bear phase pending (USO).
- Euro to confirmed bull phase against the dollar (EUR/USD).
- Emerging markets to confirmed bear phase (EEM).
Stocks and Rates
| phase | pfe | pps | trend | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | |||||
| QQQQ | |||||
| VIX | |||||
| TLT | |||||
| JNK |
Wednesday, January 19, 2011
1/20 Almanac
On Thursday, Jan. 20: Jobless claims, existing homes, Philly Fed.
There are 2 days before the January options expire, 30 the February and 58 the March.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
There are 2 days before the January options expire, 30 the February and 58 the March.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
Warren Buffett's Portfolio
Just for fun, here’s an analysis of major holdings in uber-value-trader Warren Buffett’s portfolio. He trades with a very long-term horizon, so out of fairness I shall use the monthly chart for my analysis.
The portfolio was reported today by Investopedia.
The portfolio was reported today by Investopedia.
1/19 Watchlist
- Earnings plays:
- VAR moves to confirmed bull phase.
- Other bull plays:
- GE fall into neutral phase is confirmed.
- Diversification plays:
- Brazil remains, technically, in bull phase, although the pfe is within 3 points of the -50 line (EWZ).
- China returns to bull phase as confirmation signal ghosts away (FXI).
- Wounded birds:
- NLY rise into neutrality is confirmed.
Below, earnings plays, other bull plays, bear plays, diversification plays and the futures file.
1/19 Morningline
Tuesday, January 18, 2011
1/19 Almanac
On Wednesday, Jan. 19: Housing starts.
There are 3 days before the January options expire, 31 the February and 59 the March.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
There are 3 days before the January options expire, 31 the February and 59 the March.
On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .
CTSH Watch
1/18 Watchlist
New analytical method. Read the explainer below and also the backtesting upon which it is based.
Below, earnings plays, other bull plays, bear plays, diversification plays and the futures file.
- Earnings plays:
- AAPL remains in bull phase despite Jobs medical-leave report, but the technicals are weakening.
- CRUS move to neutrality is unconfirmed.
- GRMN moves to neutral phase.
- Diversification plays:
- China moves to neutral phase (FXI).
- Wounded birds:
- NLY rises to neutrality, but the move is as yet unconfirmed.
Below, earnings plays, other bull plays, bear plays, diversification plays and the futures file.
1/18 Forex
New analytical method. Read the explainer below and also the backtesting upon which it is based.
- EUR/USD moves from bear phase to neutrality.
- USD/JPY moves to neutrality, but the confirmation is ghosting and the pair may technically remain in bull phase.
- USD/CHF moves from bull phase to neutrality.
| phase | pfe | pps | trend | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | |||||
| AUD/USD | |||||
| USD/CAD | |||||
| USD/JPY | |||||
| GBP/CHF | |||||
| GBP/USD | |||||
| EUR/JPY | |||||
| AUD/JPY | |||||
| USD/CHF | |||||
| NZD/USD | |||||
| USD/MXN |
1/18 Morningline
New analytical method. Read the explainer below and also the backtesting upon which it is based.
Stocks and Rates
- The dollar in yen trading and emerging markets have fallen into neutrality, but the move is as yet unconfirmed and both remain in bull phase (USD/JPY, EEM).
Stocks and Rates
| phase | pfe | pps | trend | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | |||||
| QQQQ | |||||
| VIX | |||||
| TLT | |||||
| JNK |
Weekend Postings
Over the weekend I posted two items:
1) Results of backtesting the two technical tools I'm using these das.
2) The slow-trading weekly analysis.
I also revised the tables I use in my analysis to reflect the backtesting results. Each posting today will have an explainer at the bottom regarding the new analysis method.
1) Results of backtesting the two technical tools I'm using these das.
2) The slow-trading weekly analysis.
I also revised the tables I use in my analysis to reflect the backtesting results. Each posting today will have an explainer at the bottom regarding the new analysis method.
Monday, January 17, 2011
Weeklies
- NLY to bull phase.
- Phase changes resulting from the new analytical method:
- SPY, QQQQ, JNK, USO, EUR/USD, EEM to neutral (was bull).
- VIX to bear (was bull).
- EUR/USD, AUD/JPY to neutral (was bull).
- EUR/JPY to neutral (was bear).
- LRCX, TROW to neutral (was bull).
- Brazil, China to neutral (was bull) (EWZ, FXI).
- FNMA to neutral phase (was bear).
- Indicators:
- Forex:
- Earnings plays:
- Diversification plays:
- Zombies:
My holdings are marked with an asterisk (*). Signal dates are the first day of week in which the signal appeared. Slow trade holdings are listed separately, at the ending of this posting.
Indicators
Stocks and Rates
| phase | pfe | pps | trend | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | |||||
| QQQQ | |||||
| VIX | |||||
| TLT | |||||
| JNK |
1/17 Forex
This post contains changes to my chart and analysis methods. See below for an explainer, and read about the backtesting results.
- EUR/USD to bear phase, unconfirmed.
- USD/CHF bull phase loses confirmation.
- NZD/USD to neutral phase.
| phase | pfe | pps | trend | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | |||||
| AUD/USD | |||||
| USD/CAD | |||||
| USD/JPY | |||||
| GBP/CHF | |||||
| GBP/USD | |||||
| EUR/JPY | |||||
| AUD/JPY | |||||
| USD/CHF | |||||
| NZD/USD | |||||
| USD/MXN |
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