Monday, November 8, 2010

11/8 Forex

  • Person's Pivots resolutions changed to weekly. See discussion below the bars.
  • Euro to bear phase against the U.S. dollar, yen (EUR/USD, EUR/JPY).

ppspps openupper pivotlower pivot
EUR/USD US$1.39 US$1.41 nov8 US$1.45 US$1.39
AUD/USD US$1.01 US$0.99 nov2 US$1.04 US$0.99
USD/CAD C$1.00 C$1.02 nov1 C$1.01 C$0.99
USD/JPY¥81 ¥81.00 oct29 ¥82 ¥80
GBP/CHF C$1.56 C$1.57 nov3 C$1.54 C$1.50
GBP/USD US$1.61 US$1.58 oct28 US$1.59 US$1.54
EUR/JPY ¥114 ¥114 nov8 ¥117 ¥112
AUD/JPY ¥82 ¥79 nov2 ¥85 ¥80
USD/CHFSF0.96 SF0.99 nov2 SF0.99 SF0.93
NZD/USD US$0.78 US$0.75 oct29 US$0.82 US$0.77
USD/MXN M$12.24 M$12.39 oct21 M$12.32 M$12.04

Today's headline is a weak euro.

EUR/USD moved to bear phase, as the price dropped from the weekly midline toward first lower pivot.

The preceding bull phase lasted but four days and produced a price rise of 0.2%

EUR/JPY also switched to bear mode with a sharp price drop that pierced the midline. The preceding bull phase lasted only three days and carried the price up 1%.

Reuters in separate stories blamed the euro's fall on either peripheral debt or German industrial production.

Price percentage moves are calculated from the U.S. markets opening price on the most recent signal day compared to the open on the prior signal day. Obviously, real people don't get those results. We either sell out early or are slow to click the mouse.

Method change: Beginning today, I'll be using the weekly Person's Pivots, which provides price targets based on recent price movements. New pivots are calculated the first U.S. market day of each week, generally Monday. My prior analysis used the monthly pivots. In both cases, the charts showed daily prices based on the U.S. market day, 9:30 a.m. to 4 p.m. Eastern.

The analysis uses the daily Person's Proprietary Signal, developed by John Person, and the weekly Person's Pivot, which he also developed.

These are black box signals -- the "proprietary" means that Mr. Person knows how they work under the hood, and I don't. But they have shown a fair degree of success in identifying good entry and exit points, and I find them useful.

On the glance, "pps open" means the price at the start of trading in the United States on the day the signal appeared.

I also refer to the Heikin-Ashia trend or candlestick. The Heikin-Ashi averages six days for high, low, open and close, signalling uptrend if the close is in the upper half of the range and downtrend if it is in the lower half. The signal for opening and closing positions require confirmation through a turn in the 8-day exponential moving average.

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

No comments:

Post a Comment