Saturday, November 13, 2010


A new report. See the explanation at the end.

Phase switches last week:
  • EUR/USD to bull phase.


Stocks and Rates
ppspps opentarget
SPY $110.37 sep6 $123.72
QQQQ $45.82 sep6 $55.25
VIX $27.94 jun14 $14.71
TLT $105.09 sep6 $94.95
JNK $37.62 jun14 $41.67

Oil and Gold
ppspps opentarget
USO $33.60 sep27 $37.58
GLD $119.70 aug16 $138.73

ppspps opentarget
EUR/USD US$1.41 nov8 US$1.37
USD/JPY ¥93.86 may3 ¥77.97
EEM $38.72 jul5 $43.03


ppspps opentarget
EUR/USD US$1.41 nov8 US$1.37
AUD/USD US$0.88 jun21 US$1.03
USD/CAD C$1.03 sep20 C$0.98
USD/JPY ¥94 may3 ¥78
GBP/CHF SF1.53 oct25 SF1.60
GBP/USD US$1.57 sep20 US$1.64
EUR/JPY ¥114 oct25 ¥111
AUD/JPY ¥79 nov1 ¥83.32
USD/CHF SF1.15 jun14 SF0.93
NZD/USD US$0.72 sep6 US$0.79
M$12.78 sep20 M$12.04


ppspps opentarget
CMG $150.06 aug2 $243.08
ENDP $21.77 jun14 $41.31
IDCC $25.73 sep13 $37.19
LVS $25.76 jul26 $53.75
MO $20.50 jul5 $26.59
PCLN $179.14 jul5 $419.75

Bear plays

Income plays
ppspps opentarget
AOD $5.49 sep27 $6.00
MRF $9.20 nov1 $8.36
NLY $18.48 sep27 $17.56

ppspps opentarget
VWO $39.33 jun14 $48.70

ppspps opentarget
FNMA $0.30 oct11 $0.58
MCO $22.94 sep6 $30.74

The analysis uses the weekly Person's Proprietary Signal, developed by John Person, and the monthly Person's Pivot, which he also developed.

These are black box signals -- the "proprietary" means that Mr. Person knows how they work under the hood, and I don't. But they have shown a fair degree of success in identifying good entry and exit points, and I find them useful.

On the glance, "pps open" means the price at the start of trading in the United States on the week the signal appeared. The actual appearance may in fact have been days later.

“Target” means the nearest Person’s Pivot level in the direction of the phase -- upper pivot for bull phase, lower pivot for bear phase.

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

A New Report

This report will be posted on the weekends or early on Mondays. It gives Person's Proprietary Signal (pps) phases on the weekly chart for the indicators, currency pairs and watch-stocks and exchange-traded funds that I follow.

The charts can be used for slow trading, a longer-term strategy than the in-this-week out-the-next trading that the daily charts impose. One advantage of slow trading is that it reduces brokerage fees. Another is that it allows that trader to spend time doing more interesting things, such as reading a book, hiking a trail or chilling at a favorite coffee house or brew pub.

There are some positions that go better as slow trades. Dividend-paying funds such as JNK or NLY are examples. Growth stocks with a strong directional bias, such as CMG, lend themselves to a slow strategy. Even some forex pairs go well. Check out the USD/JPY pair, which has been in bear phase since May and has seen a 14.5% drop in that period.

The danger, of course, is that the signals are weekly, and in a strong reversal, a price can fall quite a distance in a week before the slow signal kicks in. So, in the event of a daily signal accompanied by a strong price move, I'm always quite willing to ignore the weeklies and close positions that are moving against me.

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