Tuesday, November 23, 2010

11/23 Forex

  • Yen strengthens after North/South Korea artillery exchange. Go figure!
  • USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY to bear phase.
  • USD/MXN to bull phase.
  • GBP/CHF showed bear phase at the opening of the U.S. markets but it quickly ghosted away.

ppspps openupper pivotlower pivot
EUR/USD US$1.34 US$1.41 nov8 US$1.38 US$1.33
AUD/USD US$0.98 US$1.00 nov11 US$1.00 US$0.96
USD/CAD C$1.02 C$1.00 nov12 C$1.04 C$1.01
USD/JPY¥83 ¥83 nov23 ¥85 ¥82
GBP/CHF SF1.57 SF1.56 nov11 SF1.61 SF1.57
GBP/USD US$1.59 US$1.61 nov9 US$1.61 US$1.57
EUR/JPY ¥111 ¥114 nov23 ¥116 ¥110
AUD/JPY ¥81 ¥82 nov23 ¥84 ¥81
USD/CHFSF0.99 SF0.97 nov11 SF1.01 SF0.98
NZD/USD US$0.77 US$0.79 nov9 US$0.78 US$0.76
USD/MXN M$12.44 M$12.30 nov23 M$12.57 M$12.17

I find a stronger yen against everything else to be counter-intuitive in the wake of the North Korean shelling of Yeonpyeong Island and the South Korean response.

With Japan lying just off the coast of the Koreas, well within range of North Korean rockets, I would expect the yen to head south along with the Nikkei index.

News surprises are tricky. That's why they're called "surprises".

USD/JPY's move to bear phase ends ends a bull run covering 10 U.S. market days and a prise rise of 2.7%. The pair is trading at the Person's weekly midline.

EUR/JPY whipsawed to bear phase after only three market days. The move up was 0.9%, and the price has pierced the first lower pivot.

AUD/JPY also showed a three-market-day whipsaw. The bull phase brought the price up 1.1%. The current price decline has stalled at the lower pivot.

USD/MXN returned to bull phase after two days in the bear column that carried the price up by 0.2%. The pair has lacked a strong trend for much of November. Today's price rise brought the price a bit more than halfway to the upper pivot.

The analysis uses the daily Person's Proprietary Signal, developed by John Person, and the weekly Person's Pivot, which he also developed.

These are black box signals -- the "proprietary" means that Mr. Person knows how they work under the hood, and I don't. But they have shown a fair degree of success in identifying good entry and exit points, and I find them useful.

On the glance, "pps open" means the price at the start of trading in the United States on the day the signal appeared.

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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