Wednesday, March 10, 2010

3/10 Watchlist

The exchange traded fund SPY, which tracks the S&P 500, is trading at $115.14 at this moment (2:28 p.m. Eastern), exactly the level of the Jan. 14 high that ended, for the moment, a 10-month rise in the market.

The price pierced the $115.14 resistance level several times during the day, peaking at $115.28 at 11:03 a.m. Each time it drew back to and below resistance.

I'm reading this book, and it is so excellent.

At no point so far today that I can discern did $115.14 become a support level. And that's really the key to judging today's action, for $115.14 must be transformed from resistance to support for today's move to truly count as a higher high and resumption of the bull market that began in March 2009.

What SPY needed was some alchemy to change resistance lead into support gold.


Resistance levels aren't just magical lines on the chart. They represent money that was on the table when the price, contrary to expectations, reversed direction. The resistance level remains as resistance because people  who bought near the top last January are heaving a sigh of relieve and selling as soon as the current price provides a break-even or a small profit.

Abbreviations:
pps - Person's Proprietary Signal, ma20 - 20-day moving average, macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence, mfi - Money Flow Index, sto - Fast Stochastic

The Treasury long bonds (TLT) have traded narrowly since this morning, as befits their lowly sideshow status beside the three-ring circus that is SPY.

The watchlist.

I'm adding DOW and a currency pair, USD/JPY, to the watchlist. GDX has been voted off the island for falling below support.

Psar bull signal (the new signal in my analyses):
  • AMZN, analysis. No breakout.
  • AOD, analysis. At $8.95. Next resistance at $9.20.
  • EWT, analysis. Slight rise toward next resistance at $13.46, a full $1 away.
  • EWY, analysis. An increase to $49.30; next resistance at $50.54.
  • INTC, analysis 1 2. Moved from the bear list to the bull and did its new status proud as it continued to rise toward resistance at $21.55.
  • KFT, analysis. No breakout.
  • MGM, analysis. A rise to $11.95 with next  resistance at $12.03
  • NVDA, analysis. No breakout.
  • T, analysis. A decline today down to near the point where the signal ws given. Next resistance at $25.84, support at $24.61.
  • USD/JPY, analysis. Pulled back a bit from the trigger level. No breakout.
Psar bear signal:
  • DOW, analysis. A new addition.  At $29.30, downside support at $27.88
  • GLD, analysis. Low so far $108.02. Next support at $106.60.
  • IVZ, analysis. At $19.94, 20 cents above Tuesday's low. Next support at $18.95.
  • WFC, analysis. Well, WFC resumed its bullish ways, blowing past resistance to $29.83. Next resistance, set in October 2008, is around $30. It's a pretty congested region and will be difficult to overcome.
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Topics:
Alpine Total Dynamic Dividend fund, Amazon amazon.com books, AT&T Telecommunications, Dow Chemical, Taiwan, Korea, gold, Invesco investments, Intel semiconductors bum-bum-bum-buh, Kraft Foods, MGM Mirage gaming casino resort, Nvidia video, Wells Fargo bank financial,
U.S. dollar Japanese yen forex.

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