Tuesday, March 30, 2010

3/31 Almanac

Employment: The preview edges out main event.

On Wednesday, March 31, there are 17 trading days left before April options expire, 52 the May and 80 the June.

On the jump, market stats, mediawatch, rules, econ reports, portfolio and a good book...

Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session at $117.40, up 0.9% from the prior close.


SPY closed within today's DeMark pivot points but traded below by 10¢ during the day. The next DeMark pivots are $116.70/$117.83.


In total, 3.3 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchanges, up 17.8% from the prior day.

Mediawatch:  Given the non-movement of the markets today, reporters came up with a variety of ingenious what-is-the-sound-of-one-hand-clapping ledes. It's all so Zen!

Melinda Peer at TheStreet.com has stocks declining despite promising data. Stupid stocks. How dare they!

Stephen Bernard at AP sees stocks wavering in the face of upbeat economic data. The shock of the upbeat. It's hard to overcome. There is this 12-step program . . .

Caroline Valetkevitch at Reuters with a triple play -- stocks flat, data helps, debt weighs -- produces an earth-shattering conflict of forces worthy of Velikovsky's Worlds in Collision. Or perhaps of Wagner's Twilight of the Gods. Or even Milton and his war in Heaven and Earth. Truly awesome.



A veteran of the markets, writing with the serious trader in mind, details a proven approach to analyzing market behavior, identifying profitable trade setups, and executing and managing trades–from entry to exit.

Econ reports:

The privately-produced ADP employment report will be released at  8:15 a.m.

Most month's, this is the sneak preview of the government's more elaborate employment report on Friday. But the stock markets are closed the last day of this week for the Christian Good Friday holiday.

That means that traders can't act on any surprises until a long, three-day weekend has passed. So the ADP report is the only chance traders have to get an idea of how they should be positioned in advance of Friday's government report.

The bond markets are open on Friday, as is Forex. To me, it seems like a fairly strange decision to keep the stock markets closed on a day when such a major report is being released. Moreover, I mean, how many private businesses shut down for Good Friday? My employers never did.

Also on Wednesday, look for petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m. The main impact of this report -- no surprise -- is on the energy sector.
 
My rules as the calendar transitions from April options to May options allow trades in unhedged call and put option purchases that expire in June or later. No option spreads or anything fancy.

My portfolio consists of . . .

April expiry:
  • MCO, covered call, -c29
  • MGM, iron condor, p9/-p10/-c12/c13 
  • XLE, iron condor, p55/-p56/-c59/c60 
Dividend shares: AOD, JNK, NLY
 
Zombie shares: PALM.

Good trading!

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