Tuesday, March 23, 2010

DIS psar bull signal

The Disney Co. (DIS) is showing a psar bull signal, after a one-day bear whipsaw. The ADX is 40, so a bull whipsaw is unlikely.

The psar signal comes after an uptrend that began Jan. 28 leveled out beginning March 11.
trendadxpsarppsmacdmacd
trend
stosto
trend
DIS $34.03

In a broader view, DIS has been rising for the past year and has moved back to the top of a long-running sideways trend that ran throughout 2007 and ended with market break of the Autumn of '08.


So, near term, I like DIS, even with the bull-zone macd decling toward the zero line. But short term, the company has only reclaimed ground that it lost in what was (we fervently hope) a time of extraordinary circumstances. It may well simply be reverting to its sidewinder history.

Also, a year-long sideways trend means even the congestion is congested. If DIS were a nose, it would have a horrible case of hay fever. Break out the tissue paper!

You are here:
  • Reversal
    • $36.79, +8.1%
    • $35.69, +4.9%
    • $34.98, +2.8%
    • $34.71, +2%
    • $34.19, +0.5%
  • Now $34.03
  • Reversal
    • $33.42, -1.8%
    • $33.25, -2.3%
    • $29.03, -14.7%
    • $28.71, -15.6%
All in all, I could grow to like DIS on a breakout above $34.19, but not very much. There's just too much upside congestion.

Earnings on May 11, which is far enough from April expiry to be within my zone of comfort. It could produce some turbulence, however, in a stock as widely covered as is DIS.

Abbreviations:
psar - Parabolic Stop and Reverse
adx - Average Directional Index
pps - Person's Proprietary Signal
ma20 - 20-day moving average
macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence
mfi - Money Flow Index
sto - Fast Stochastic
   

About the glance:  The colors indicate the state of each signal.

  • trend: green for up, red for down, yellow for sideways
  • adx: green for above 30-up, red for 20-down, yellow for in the middle. Red is most prone to whipsaws
  • psar, pps, macd: green for bull mode, red for bear
  • sto: green for overbought, red for oversold, yellow for the neutral zone.


This signal will be followed in the daily Watchlist, which is posted beginning around 2:45 p.m. Eastern. Look for it at www.timbovee.com.

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