12/1 Almanac

On Wednesday, Dec. 1: Manufacturing index, auto sales, productivity.

There are 17 days before the December options expire, 52 the January and 80 the February.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .

URBN Watch

I've closed my bull position on Urban Outfitters Inc. (URBN). This was a successful earnings play dating from mid-November.

	pps	psar	macd		obv	h-a trend		ma20	ma50	ma200
URBN $38.12

11/30 Watchlist

• Growth plays:
• ENDP to bull phase on the parabolic sar.
• Income plays:
• AGG to bull phase on Person's Proprietary Signal (pps), macd.
• AROW to bull phase on the macd.
• STON to bull phase on the pps.

11/30 Forex

• USD/CAD bull phase of yesterday ghosted away, reappears this morning with greater authority.

	pps	pps open	upper pivot	lower pivot
EUR/USD US$1.30		US$1.41 nov8	US$1.36	US$1.31
AUD/USD US$0.96		US$1.00 nov11	US$0.99	US$0.94
USD/CAD C$1.03		C$1.02 nov30	C$1.04	C$1.01
USD/JPY¥84		¥81 nov9	¥85	¥83
GBP/CHF SF1.55		SF1.56 nov11	SF1.58	SF1.54
GBP/USD US$1.55		US$1.61 nov9	US$1.59	US$1.52
EUR/JPY ¥109		¥114 nov23	¥114	¥108
AUD/JPY ¥80		¥82 nov23	¥83	¥79
USD/CHFSF1.00		SF0.97 nov11	SF1.02	SF0.99
NZD/USD US$0.74		US$0.79 nov9	US$0.77	US$0.72
USD/MXN M$12.51		M$12.30 nov23	M$12.71	M$12.29

11/30 Morningline

• Nasdaq 100 to bear phase on Person's Proprietary Signal (pps) (QQQQ).
• Crude oil moves to bull phase on the parabolic sar (USO).
• Yesterday's pps bear phase on gold ghosts away; metal returns to bull phase (GLD).

Stocks and Rates

	pps	psar	macd		obv	h-a trend		ma20	ma50	ma200
SPY
QQQQ
VIX
TLT
JNK

Below, oil and gold, and global indicators.

11/30 Almanac

On Tuesday, Nov. 30: Home price index, consumer confidence.

There are 18 days before the December options expire, 53 the January and 81 the February.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .

11/29 Watchlist

• Growth plays:
• IDCC, PCLN whipsaw to bear phase on Person's Proprietary Signal (pps).
• MO moved to the inactive list; I'll resume coverage after it reverses the present price decline or as earnings approach.
• Income plays:
• AOD whipsaws back to pps bear phase.
• AROW shows bear phase on the macd; quarterly ex-div is Dec. 1.

11/29 Forex

• U.S. dollar whipsaws to bull phase against the Loonie (USD/CAD).
• New weekly pivot levels calculated.

	pps	pps open	upper pivot	lower pivot
EUR/USD US$1.31		US$1.41 nov8	US$1.36	US$1.31
AUD/USD US$0.96		US$1.00 nov11	US$0.99	US$0.94
USD/CAD C$1.02		C$1.02 nov29	C$1.04	C$1.01
USD/JPY¥84		¥81 nov9	¥85	¥83
GBP/CHF SF1.56		SF1.56 nov11	SF1.58	SF1.54
GBP/USD US$1.55		US$1.61 nov9	US$1.59	US$1.52
EUR/JPY ¥110		¥114 nov23	¥114	¥108
AUD/JPY ¥81		¥82 nov23	¥83	¥79
USD/CHFSF1.00		SF0.97 nov11	SF1.02	SF0.99
NZD/USD US$0.74		US$0.79 nov9	US$0.77	US$0.72
USD/MXN M$12.57		M$12.30 nov23	M$12.71	M$12.29

11/29 Morningline

• S&P 500 whipsaws back to bear phase on Person's Proprietary Signal (pps) (SPY).
• Fear index to bull phase on pps, parabolic sar (VIX).
• Treasury long-term bonds to pps bull phase (TLT).
• Gold shows pps bear signal (GLD).

Stocks and Rates

	pps	psar	macd		obv	h-a trend		ma20	ma50	ma200
SPY
QQQQ
VIX
TLT
JNK

Below, oil and gold, and global indicators.

Weeklies

Phase Changes

• Indicators
• Bull: VIX
• Bear: JNK, EEM
• Forex
• Bull: USD/MXN
• Bear: AUD/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD
• Growth plays
• MO placed on the inactive roster.
• Diversification plays
• Bear: EWZ

My holdings are marked with an asterisk (*).


Indicators

Stocks and Rates

	pps	pps open	target
SPY*		$110.37 sep6	$123.72
QQQQ		$45.82 sep6	$55.25
VIX		$19.45 nov22	$24.39
TLT		$105.09 sep6	$94.95
JNK		$40.31 nov22	$38.13.67

11/29 Almanac

On Monday, Nov. 29: No econ reports.

There are 19 days before the December options expire, 54 the January and 82 the February.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .

Ghost Signals

In the Morningline I noted that gold (GLD) and the fear index (VIX) were sporadically showing phase shifts on Person's Proprietary Signal (pps).

The signals were ghosting at a fairly rapid clip, meaning they would appear and then disappear, not uncommon behavior for the pps.

With a 18 minutes left in the trading day, the bull phase in the VIX is persisting. The bear phase on GLD has disappeared.

11/26 Watchlist

The U.S. markets close at 1 p.m. Eastern.

• Income plays:
• AGG to bear phase on Person's Proprietary Signal (pps); unconfirmed by on-balance volume.
• Diversification plays:
• RSX to bull phase on the pps; unconfirmed.

11/26 Forex

• No new signals on the 11 currency pairs I follow.

	pps	pps open	upper pivot	lower pivot
EUR/USD US$1.33		US$1.41 nov8	US$1.38	US$1.33
AUD/USD US$0.97		US$1.00 nov11	US$1.00	US$0.96
USD/CAD C$1.02		C$1.02 nov24	C$1.04	C$1.01
USD/JPY¥84		¥81 nov9	¥85	¥82
GBP/CHF SF1.57		SF1.56 nov11	SF1.61	SF1.57
GBP/USD US$1.57		US$1.61 nov9	US$1.61	US$1.57
EUR/JPY ¥111		¥114 nov23	¥116	¥110
AUD/JPY ¥81		¥82 nov23	¥84	¥81
USD/CHFSF1.00		SF0.97 nov11	SF1.01	SF0.98
NZD/USD US$0.75		US$0.79 nov9	US$0.78	US$0.76
USD/MXN M$12.46		M$12.30 nov23	M$12.57	M$12.17

11/26 Morningline

U.S. markets close at 1 p.m. Eastern.

• Fear index, gold show bull phase, bear phase respectively on Person's Proprietary Signal (pps), but the signals are ghosting.
• All of the signals listed below kicked in intra-day on Wednesday, before the holiday.
• S&P 500 switches to bull phase on the pps; unconfirmed by the on-balance volume (SPY).
• Nasdaq 100 to bull phase on the parabolic sar (QQQQ); unconfirmed.
• Treasury high-yield bonds show pps bear phase; contrary to on-balance volume (TLT).
• Crude oil to bull phase on the pps; unconfirmed (USO).

Stocks and Rates

	pps	psar	macd		obv	h-a trend		ma20	ma50	ma200
SPY
QQQQ
VIX
TLT
JNK

Below, oil and gold, and global indicators.

11/25 Forex

• No new signals on the 11 currency pairs I track.

	pps	pps open	upper pivot	lower pivot
EUR/USD US$1.33		US$1.41 nov8	US$1.38	US$1.33
AUD/USD US$0.98		US$1.00 nov11	US$1.00	US$0.96
USD/CAD C$1.01		C$1.02 nov24	C$1.04	C$1.01
USD/JPY¥84		¥81 nov9	¥85	¥82
GBP/CHF SF1.58		SF1.56 nov11	SF1.61	SF1.57
GBP/USD US$1.58		US$1.61 nov9	US$1.61	US$1.57
EUR/JPY ¥111		¥114 nov23	¥116	¥110
AUD/JPY ¥82		¥82 nov23	¥84	¥81
USD/CHFSF1.00		SF0.97 nov11	SF1.01	SF0.98
NZD/USD US$0.76		US$0.79 nov9	US$0.78	US$0.76
USD/MXN M$12.36		M$12.30 nov23	M$12.57	M$12.17

11/26 Almanac

On Thursday, Nov. 25: All markets are closed, except for forex. Europe and East Asia don't celebrate thanksgiving when the Americans do, so they'll be trading during their market hours.

On Friday, Nov. 26: Fed balance sheet, money supply. The markets close early, stocks at 1 p.m. Eastern and bonds at 2 p.m.

There are 22 days before the December options expire, 57 the January and 85 the February.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .

FTR Watch

It is every trader's nightmare to open a large position on iron-clad signals one day, only to have all of the signals reverse the next. That's sort of what has happened in my account with Frontier Communications Corp. (FTR), a primo dividend play.

I face a quandary. The trading rules for growth stocks don't apply to high-yield dividend stocks, and I've not yet been able to craft a satisfactory set of practices that will keep me out of trouble on the high-yield dividend plays.

So I wring my hands and cry to the trading heavens, like a collateralized Wall Street Shylock, "O! My dividends! O! My capital gains!".

	pps	psar	macd		obv	h-a trend		ma20	ma50	ma200
FTR $9.12

GES Watch

The clothier Guess? Inc. (GES) provided a surprise within a surprise within a surprise when it released earnings after Tuesday's close. The company beat the earnings consensus by 16¢, and on top of that announced a one-time $2 per share bonus dividend and increased its regular dividend by 25%.

Wish I had gone along for the ride.

	pps	psar	macd		obv	h-a trend		ma20	ma50	ma200
GES $49.13

11/24 Watchlist

• Growth plays:
• CMG to unconfirmed bull phase on the macd.
• IDCC to bull phase on Person's Proprietary Signal (pps); unconfirmed as yet by on-balance volume.
• URBN gets bull-phase confirmation from on-balance volume.
• Income plays:
• AGG to bull phase on the parabolic sar; confirmed by on-balance volume.
• FTR whipsaws back to bear phase on the pps.
• MRF shows bull phase on the macd.
• NLY moves to bull phase on the pps, parabolic sar.

11/24 Forex

• U.S. dollar to bear phase against the Loonie (USD/CAD).
• U.S. dollar's bear phase against the yen ghosts away, leaving USD/JPY in bull phase.
• However, euro and Australian dollar bear phase remain against the yen (EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY).

	pps	pps open	upper pivot	lower pivot
EUR/USD US$1.34		US$1.41 nov8	US$1.38	US$1.33
AUD/USD US$0.98		US$1.00 nov11	US$1.00	US$0.96
USD/CAD C$1.01		C$1.02 nov24	C$1.04	C$1.01
USD/JPY¥83		¥81 nov9	¥85	¥82
GBP/CHF SF1.57		SF1.56 nov11	SF1.61	SF1.57
GBP/USD US$1.58		US$1.61 nov9	US$1.61	US$1.57
EUR/JPY ¥112		¥114 nov23	¥116	¥110
AUD/JPY ¥82		¥82 nov23	¥84	¥81
USD/CHFSF0.99		SF0.97 nov11	SF1.01	SF0.98
NZD/USD US$0.76		US$0.79 nov9	US$0.78	US$0.76
USD/MXN M$12.39		M$12.30 nov23	M$12.57	M$12.17

11/24 Morningline

• Yesterday's dollar bull phase against the yen ghosts away; currency pair remains in bull phase on Person's Proprietary Signal (pps) (USD/JPY).
• It's the last trading day before the Thanksgiving market holiday.

Stocks and Rates

	pps	psar	macd		obv	h-a trend		ma20	ma50	ma200
SPY
QQQQ
VIX
TLT
JNK

Below, oil and gold, and global indicators.

11/24 Almanac

On Wednesday, Nov. 24: Orders for durable goods, personal income and spending.

There are 24 days before the December options expire, 59 the January and 87 the February.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .

MRF Watch

American Income Fund Inc. (MRF) is one of those slow-and-steady monthly income funds that can produce cashflow from the idle part of a trading portfolio.

It has moved to bull phase, with the next monthly ex-dividend date set for Dec. 1. Sadly, it's about as liquid as a jar of cold peanut butter. Which is to say, not very liquid at all.

	pps	psar	macd		obv	h-a trend		ma20	ma50	ma200
MRF $8.70

FTR Watch

Frontier Communications Corp. (FTR) is one of the grab-bag of dividend-paying stocks that I added recently to the income-play section of my Watchlist. It goes ex-dividend on a 18.75¢ quarterly payment on Dec. 7, and moved to bull phase on Person's Proprietary Signal (pps) last Friday.

I'll say up front, a growth stock it ain't.

	pps	psar	macd		obv	h-a trend		ma20	ma50	ma200
FTR $9.05

LVS Watch

Las Vegas Sands Corp. (LVS) has moved to bull phase on Person's Proprietary Signal (pps) and the parabolic sar. However, the on-balance volume has yet to confirm the phase switch, and today's price drop creates a doubt, in my mind at least, as to whether the recent three-day uptrend has legs.

	pps	psar	macd		obv	h-a trend		ma20	ma50	ma200
LVS $49.13

URBN Watch

Urban Outfitters Inc. (URBN) threw off the weakness that was showing on its chart, breaking out of range to set a swing high.

In Monday's post, I wrote, "...it may be that the ride is about over."

Well, no.

The Japanese have a catch-phase appropriate to the occasion, one that is heard throughout the world of business in Japan: "Jotai ga kawatta" -- "The situation has changed."

This is about the best way of saying "Oops! I goofed!" that I've ever run across.

So, with regard to URBN, the situation has changed.

11/23 Watchlist

• Growth plays:
• CMG, LVS show bull phase on the parabolic sar.
• Income plays:
• AGG to bull phase on Person's Proprietary Signal (pps).
• AROW, NLY to bear phase on the macd.
• Diversification plays:
• RSX whipsaws to bear phase on the pps.

11/23 Forex

• Yen strengthens after North/South Korea artillery exchange. Go figure!
• USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY to bear phase.
• USD/MXN to bull phase.
• GBP/CHF showed bear phase at the opening of the U.S. markets but it quickly ghosted away.

	pps	pps open	upper pivot	lower pivot
EUR/USD US$1.34		US$1.41 nov8	US$1.38	US$1.33
AUD/USD US$0.98		US$1.00 nov11	US$1.00	US$0.96
USD/CAD C$1.02		C$1.00 nov12	C$1.04	C$1.01
USD/JPY¥83		¥83 nov23	¥85	¥82
GBP/CHF SF1.57		SF1.56 nov11	SF1.61	SF1.57
GBP/USD US$1.59		US$1.61 nov9	US$1.61	US$1.57
EUR/JPY ¥111		¥114 nov23	¥116	¥110
AUD/JPY ¥81		¥82 nov23	¥84	¥81
USD/CHFSF0.99		SF0.97 nov11	SF1.01	SF0.98
NZD/USD US$0.77		US$0.79 nov9	US$0.78	US$0.76
USD/MXN M$12.44		M$12.30 nov23	M$12.57	M$12.17

11/23 Morningline

• Nasdaq 100, gold to bull phase on Person's Proprietary Signal (pps); unconfirmed by on-balance volume, which in both cases requires a higher high to show an uptrend (QQQQ, GLD).
• U.S. dollar to pps bear phase against the Japanese yen (USD/JPY).
• Emerging markets gap down 2.6% on an already bearish chart after North Korea shells a South Korean island (EEM).
• EEM exposure: 13% South Korean holdings, 56% Asian holdings.

Stocks and Rates

	pps	psar	macd		obv	h-a trend		ma20	ma50	ma200
SPY
QQQQ
VIX
TLT
JNK

Below, oil and gold, and global indicators.

11/23 Almanac

On Tuesday, Nov. 23: GDP and existing home sales.

There are 25 days before the December options expire, 60 the January and 88 the February.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .

CMG Watch

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) has moved to bull phase on both the Person's Proprietary Signal (pps) and the parabolic sar, ending a four-day bear-phase sideways pattern. The price moved to an all-time high before pulling back to within the range.

	pps	psar	macd		obv	h-a trend		ma20	ma50	ma200
CMG $240.24

URBN Watch

Urban Outfitters Inc. (URBN) was a last-minute earnings play that turned out to be a success (see my prior post). The price hit a swing high today of $37.92, which works out to 15.8% above the pre-earnings close.

	pps	psar	macd		obv	h-a trend		ma20	ma50	ma200
$37.03

11/22 Watchlist

• Growth plays:
• CMG, LVS, PCLN to bull phase on Person's Proprietary Signal (pps); no confirmation from the on-balance volume.
• Income plays:
• Eight issues added to the income section.
• MVO to bull phase on the pps; on-balance volume trending up.
• Diversification plays:
• Four issues added to the diversification section.
• RSX to bull phase on the pps.

11/22 Forex

• U.S. dollar to bear phase against the peso (USD/MXN).
• New pivot levels for the week.

	pps	pps open	upper pivot	lower pivot
EUR/USD US$1.37		US$1.41 nov8	US$1.38	US$1.33
AUD/USD US$0.99		US$1.00 nov11	US$1.00	US$0.96
USD/CAD C$1.02		C$1.00 nov12	C$1.04	C$1.01
USD/JPY¥83		¥81 nov9	¥85	¥82
GBP/CHF SF1.58		SF1.56 nov11	SF1.61	SF1.57
GBP/USD US$1.60		US$1.61 nov9	US$1.61	US$1.57
EUR/JPY ¥114		¥113 nov18	¥116	¥113
AUD/JPY ¥83		¥81 nov18	¥84	¥81
USD/CHFSF0.99		SF0.97 nov11	SF1.01	SF0.98
NZD/USD US$0.77		US$0.79 nov9	US$0.78	US$0.76
USD/MXN M$12.27		M$12.27 nov19	M$12.57	M$12.17

11/22 Morningline

• Treasury long-term bonds move to bull phase on the parabolic sar, macd (TLT).
• It's a holiday week, with low volume, so I treat all signals with skepticism.

Stocks and Rates

	pps	psar	macd		obv	h-a trend		ma20	ma50	ma200
SPY
QQQQ
VIX
TLT
JNK

Below, oil and gold, and global indicators.

Weeklies

Phase switches last week:

• Bull: USD/JPY, USD/CHF
• Bear: USO, FNMA

I've added eight dividend plays and four diversification plays.

My holdings are marked with an asterisk (*).


Indicators

Stocks and Rates

	pps	pps open	target
SPY*		$110.37 sep6	$123.72
QQQQ		$45.82 sep6	$55.25
VIX		$27.94 jun14	$14.71
TLT		$105.09 sep6	$94.95
JNK		$37.62 jun14	$41.67

11/22 Almanac

On Monday, Nov. 22: No econ.

There are 26 days before the December options expire, 61 the January and 89 the February.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .

GES Watch

I'm at a decision point on whether to play Guess ? Inc. (GES) earnings, which will be announced after the close on Tuesday, Nov. 23.

(It was scheduled for Nov. 24, but they moved it up a day.)

In my analysis posted Nov. 16, I listed my misgivings about this play, despite excellent financials and an OK chart.

My main problem with GES is that upside earnings surprises the past two quarters have been followed by price declines.

11/19 Watchlist

Method change: In the headlines I'll note only phase switches involving the principal signalers I use: Person's Proprietary Signal (pps), the parabolic sar and the macd.

• Growth plays:
• LULU to bull phase on Person's Proprietary Signal (pps). See my separate post.
• Income plays:
• MRF to bull phase on the pps; unconfirmed by on-balance volume.
• NLY intra-day pps bull phase of Thursday ghosts away; remains in bear phase.

11/19 Forex

• Euro, Australian dollar to bull phase against the yen (EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY).
• They look like head fakes to me. See my discussion below.

	pps	pps open	upper pivot	lower pivot
EUR/USD US$1.37		US$1.41 nov8	US$1.40	US$1.33
AUD/USD US$0.98		US$1.00 nov11	US$1.03	US$0.97
USD/CAD C$1.02		C$1.00 nov12	C$1.02	C$0.99
USD/JPY¥83		¥81 nov9	¥84	¥81
GBP/CHF SF1.59		SF1.56 nov11	SF1.61	SF1.55
GBP/USD US$1.60		US$1.61 nov9	US$1.64	US$1.60
EUR/JPY ¥114		¥113 nov18	¥115	¥110
AUD/JPY ¥82		¥81 nov18	¥84	¥81
USD/CHFSF1.00		SF0.97 nov11	SF0.99	SF0.95
NZD/USD US$0.78		US$0.79 nov9	US$0.80	US$0.76
USD/MXN M$12.31		M$12.25 nov12	M$12.41	M$12.08

11/19 Morningline

• Treasury long-term bonds to bull phase on Person's Proprietary Signal (pps), but it ghosts away; on-balance volume shows beginnings of an uptrend (TLT).
• See a discussion of ghosting and other TLT signals, below.
• Method change: In this text at the top I'll note only major phase switches, on the pps, parabolic sar and macd.

Stocks and Rates

	pps	psar	macd		obv	h-a trend		ma20	ma50	ma200
SPY
QQQQ
VIX
TLT
JNK

It's not unusual for Person's Proprietary Signal (pps) to give a signal early in the day that later (often quickly) disappears. That's what has happened this morning with a bull signal on TLT.

11/19 Almanac

On Friday, Nov. 19: No econ. Big Ben speaks.

Friday is the last trading day for November options expire. There are 29 days before the December options expire and 64 the January.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .

LULU Watch

lululemon athletica inc. (LULU) has moved to bull phase on Person's Proprietary Signal (pps), ending my three days of waiting for the stock to give an entry signal. The on-balance volume has set a higher high, confirming the signal.

LULU is a play keyed on the Dec. 9 earnings release.

11/18 Watchlist

• Growth plays:
• GES Heikin-Ashi trend turns up.
• LULU to bear phase on the macd; Heikin-Ashi trend turns up.
• LVS straddling 20-day moving average.
• MO moves above 50-day moving average.
• Income plays:
• MRF Heikin-Ashi trend turns up.
• NLY to bull phase on the macd; no confirmation yet on the on-balance volume; price tops 20-day moving average but retreats to its level; Heikin-Ashi uptrend.
• For long-term traders, NLY in bull phase on the weekly chart since mid-October. See the Weeklies report.

11/18 Forex

• No new signals on the 11 currency pairs I follow.

	pps	pps open	upper pivot	lower pivot
EUR/USD US$1.36		US$1.41 nov8	US$1.40	US$1.33
AUD/USD US$0.99		US$1.00 nov11	US$1.03	US$0.97
USD/CAD C$1.02		C$1.00 nov12	C$1.02	C$0.99
USD/JPY¥83		¥81 nov9	¥84	¥81
GBP/CHF SF1.58		SF1.56 nov11	SF1.61	SF1.55
GBP/USD US$1.60		US$1.61 nov9	US$1.64	US$1.60
EUR/JPY ¥114		¥114 nov8	¥115	¥110
AUD/JPY ¥82		¥82 nov12	¥84	¥81
USD/CHFSF0.99		SF0.97 nov11	SF0.99	SF0.95
NZD/USD US$0.78		US$0.79 nov9	US$0.80	US$0.76
USD/MXN M$12.28		M$12.25 nov12	M$12.41	M$12.08

11/18 Morningline

• Fear index to bear phase on Person's Proprietary Signal (pps); price returns to below 50-day moving average (VIX).
• Treasury long-term debt's Heikin-Ashi trend turns up (TLT).
• Corporate high-yield debt, emerging markets move above 50-day moving average (JNK, EEM).

Stocks and Rates

	pps	psar	macd		obv	h-a trend		ma20	ma50	ma200
SPY
QQQQ
VIX
TLT
JNK

Below, oil and gold, and global indicators.

11/18 Almanac

On Thursday, Nov. 18: Jobless claims, Filly Phed Survey.

There are 2 days before the November options expire, 30 the December and 65 the January.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .

11/17 Watchlist

• Growth plays:
• LVS moves below 20-day moving average.
• PCLN macd to bear phase; all principal signals now in bear column.
• GES added to the Watchlist.
• Income plays:
• MRF moves to bull phase on the parabolic sar; unconfirmed by the on-balance volume; price back above 200-day moving average.
• Diversification plays:
• VWO straddling 50-day moving average.
• Zombies:
• MCO drops below 20-day moving average.

11/17 Forex

• No new phase switches in the 11 currencies pairs I follow.

	pps	pps open	upper pivot	lower pivot
EUR/USD US$1.35		US$1.41 nov8	US$1.40	US$1.33
AUD/USD US$0.98		US$1.00 nov11	US$1.03	US$0.97
USD/CAD C$1.02		C$1.00 nov12	C$1.02	C$0.99
USD/JPY¥83		¥81 nov9	¥84	¥81
GBP/CHF SF1.58		SF1.56 nov11	SF1.61	SF1.55
GBP/USD US$1.59		US$1.61 nov9	US$1.64	US$1.60
EUR/JPY ¥113		¥114 nov8	¥115	¥110
AUD/JPY ¥82		¥82 nov12	¥84	¥81
USD/CHFSF0.99		SF0.97 nov11	SF0.99	SF0.95
NZD/USD US$0.77		US$0.79 nov9	US$0.80	US$0.76
USD/MXN M$12.40		M$12.25 nov12	M$12.41	M$12.08

11/17 Morningline

• Fear index pushes above 50-day moving average (VIX).
• Emerging markets dip below the 50-day moving average (EEM).

Stocks and Rates

	pps	psar	macd		obv	h-a trend		ma20	ma50	ma200
SPY
QQQQ
VIX
TLT
JNK

Below, oil and gold, and global indicators.

11/17 Almanac

On Wednesday, Nov. 17: Consumer price index, housing starts.

There are 3 days before the November options expire, 31 the December and 66 the January.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .

CMG Watch

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) swung into bear phase on my three principal indicators in intra-day trading. The signals were confirmed by a lower low on the on-balance volume.

	pps	psar	macd		obv	h-a trend		ma20	ma50	ma200
CMG $224.91

GES Watch

The clothier Guess? Inc. (GES) releases earnings after the close on Nov. 24, or Wednesday of next week. I'm considering it as a near-term earnings play.

	pps	psar	macd		obv	h-a trend		ma20	ma50	ma200
GES $41.03

URBN Watch

The earnings driven bull play on Urban Outfitters Inc. (URBN) that I entered Monday just hours before the announcement proved to be a good gamble.

URBN came through with a 1¢ earnings surprise, followed by a 4.6% gap up and an intra-day rise that touched 11% above Monday's close.

11/16 Watchlist

• Growth plays:
• MO drops below the 50-day moving average.
• PCLN to bear phase on the parabolic sar.
• URBN tops 20-day moving average.
• Income plays:
• AOD to bear phase on the parabolic sar; price straddles 50-day moving average.
• MRF price breaks below 200-day moving average.
• NLY to bear phase on Person's Proprietary Signal (pps), macd.
• Zombies:
• MCO to bear phase on the pps.

11/16 Forex

• No new signals in the 11 currency pairs that I follow.
• Peso charting problems fixed; pivot levels added.

	pps	pps open	upper pivot	lower pivot
EUR/USD US$1.36		US$1.41 nov8	US$1.40	US$1.33
AUD/USD US$0.98		US$1.00 nov11	US$1.03	US$0.97
USD/CAD C$1.02		C$1.00 nov12	C$1.02	C$0.99
USD/JPY¥83		¥81 nov9	¥84	¥81
GBP/CHF SF1.58		SF1.56 nov11	SF1.61	SF1.55
GBP/USD US$1.60		US$1.61 nov9	US$1.64	US$1.60
EUR/JPY ¥113		¥114 nov8	¥115	¥110
AUD/JPY ¥81		¥82 nov12	¥84	¥81
USD/CHFSF0.99		SF0.97 nov11	SF0.99	SF0.95
NZD/USD US$0.77		US$0.79 nov9	US$0.80	US$0.76
USD/MXN M$12.40		M$12.25 nov12	M$12.41	M$12.08

11/16 Morningline

• S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 drop below 20-day moving average for the first time since early September (SPY, QQQQ).
• Fear index moves to bull phase on the parabolic sar (VIX).
• Corporate high-yield debt drops below 50-day moving average (JNK).
• Crude oil drops below 20-day and 50-day moving averages; parabolic sar in bear phase (USO).
  
• Gold to bear phase on the parabolic sar; price drops below 20-day moving average (GLD).
• Euro drops below 50-day moving average in trading against the dollar (EUR/USD).

Stocks and Rates

	pps	psar	macd		obv	h-a trend		ma20	ma50	ma200
SPY
QQQQ
VIX
TLT
JNK

Below, oil and gold, and global indicators.

11/16 Almanac

On Tuesday, Nov. 16: Producer price index, industrial production.

There are 4 days before the November options expire, 32 the December and 67 the January.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .

PCLN Watch

One of the my Watchlist holdings, priceline.com Inc. (PCLN), moved to bear phase this morning on Person's Proprietary Signal (pps), and I've closed my position.

I opened the position on Nov. 8, the day earnings were to be announced, after the close.

An upside earnings surprise produced a gap up, so it turned out to be a good gamble. And I do say "gamble": Plays that close to earnings always have a high degree of uncertainty, which can be mitigated by position sizing and hedging with options.

11/15 Watchlist

• Growth plays:
• IDCC in bear phase on all principal signalers; on-balance volume moves to lower low.
• LVS to bear phase on all principal signalers.
• PCLN to bear phase on Person's Proprietary Signal (pps).
• Two additions to the Watchlist: LULU, URBN.
• Income plays:
• AOD to bear phase on the macd as on-balance volume turns down.
• NLY drops below 50-day moving average; on-balance volume turns sideways.
• No MRF update available due to charting failure.
• Diversification plays:
• VWO on-balance volume in downtrend; price drops below 20-day moving average.
• Zombies:
• MCO to bear phase on the macd.

11/15 Forex

• Canadian dollar to bull phase against U.S. dollar (USD/CAD).
• Australian dollar to bear phase against the Japanese yen (AUD/JPY).
• Mexican peso to bull phase against U.S. dollar (USD/MXN).
• USD/MXN pivot level unavailable due to charting errors.

	pps	pps open	upper pivot	lower pivot
EUR/USD US$1.36		US$1.41 nov8	US$1.40	US$1.33
AUD/USD US$0.99		US$1.00 nov11	US$1.03	US$0.97
USD/CAD C$1.01		C$1.00 nov12	C$1.02	C$0.99
USD/JPY¥83		¥81 nov9	¥84	¥81
GBP/CHF SF1.58		SF1.56 nov11	SF1.61	SF1.55
GBP/USD US$1.61		US$1.61 nov9	US$1.64	US$1.60
EUR/JPY ¥113		¥114 nov8	¥115	¥110
AUD/JPY ¥82		¥82 nov12	¥84	¥81
USD/CHFSF0.98		SF0.97 nov11	SF0.99	SF0.95
NZD/USD US$0.78		US$0.79 nov9	US$0.80	US$0.76
USD/MXN M$12.24		M$12.25 nov12	M$--.--	M$--.--