Thursday, March 25, 2010

3/25 Morningline

Blue chip stocks (SPY) opened above the past week's trading range, breaking through the $117.51 downturn reversal.

If SPY begins to treat that level as an upturn reversal point, as it was about 10 minutes into trading, then conditions will be in place for a run up to the next reversal level, $121.91.
trendadxpsarppsmacdmacd
trend
stosto
trend
SPY $117.44
TLT $89.14
At 9:55 a.m. Eastern

The long-term Treasury bonds (TLT) lay morosely at the bottom of yesterday's range of sharp decline, like a Raggedy Ann doll tossed carelessly in the closet by an child now older and moving on to other toys.


The morning saw slight upside spins to high-yield corporate debt (JNK), gold (GLD), oil (USO) and the dollar as measured against the euro and the yen (EUR/USD, USD/JPY). Like wobbly tops, they threatened from time to time to fall.

SPY broke above the DeMark pivot point to a high of $117.73 before pulling back. A break above the DeMark range is considered to be a bullish sign. Today's DeMark pivots are $115.29/$117.14.


What would it be like to open your accounts and never have any ugly surprises. Financial strategist Pamela Yellen tells how to get your money on the good news track.
trendadxpsarppsmacdmacd
trend
stosto
trend
JNK $39.59
GLD $106.67
USO $39.26
EEM $41.22
EUR/USD $1.3323
USD/JPY ¥92.50
At 10:05 a.m. Eastern


My holdings:
  • MGM, an April iron condor (p9/-p10/-c12/c13), is trading at $12.68, above the max profit point at expiry of $12. The price has touched and reversed off of $12.80 three days running.
  • XLE, an April iron condor (p55/-p56/-c59/c60), at $56.91 is in the max profit range. The stock shows bear signals, and a move below $56 would start cutting into profits at expiry.
  • MCO, an April covered call (-c29), is trading a $30.50. I set up this position so it will make money, when combined with prior covered calls and dividends, no matter where the stock trades. If it closes below $29, I keep the shares as a basis for future covered calls. (Warren Buffet holds a nice chunk of MCO, according to the annual report that I got in the mail yesterday. If it's good enough for Warren, it's good enough for me.)
  • PALM, shares in a zombie position, at $3.91. The price has barely moved since the company released disappointing forecasts on March 18, like a zebra lying injured on the hot, dusty Serengeti plain watching the vultures gather overhead.
  • NLY, a dividend play, at $17.96. It goes ex-div on March 30.

Abbreviations:
psar - Parabolic Stop and Reverse
adx - Average Directional Index
pps - Person's Proprietary Signal
ma20 - 20-day moving average
macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence
mfi - Money Flow Index
sto - Fast Stochastic


About the glance: The colors indicate the state of each signal.

  • trend: green for up, red for down, yellow for sideways
  • adx: green for above 30-up, red for 20-down, yellow for in the middle. Red is most prone to whipsaws
  • psar, pps, macd: green for bull mode, red for bear
  • sto: green for overbought, red for oversold, yellow for the neutral zone.


New to Private Trader? Check out the Reader's Guide.

New to private trading? Here's a look at How to Become a Private Trader.

No comments:

Post a Comment