Wednesday, March 24, 2010

3/24 Watchlist

SPY, tracking the S&P 500,  is trading narrowly at the midpoint of yesterday's range, with less than a dime's worth of difference between the opening price and the current price.

TLT, tracking 20- and 30-year Treasury bonds, having gapped down this morning, has bounced off of a reversal level set in mid-February.

The big winner of the day is the dollar: Up 2.1% low to high against the yen (USD/JPY). Up 1.4% against the euro (EUR/USD).

The media chit-chat credits fear of the Greek Eurozone credit crisis (once again, ad infinitum) for the dollar's strength. Which certainly goes nowhere to explain the greater rise against the yen.



I credit the U.S. government bond market. TLT is down, which means traders expect higher interest rates ahead, and higher interest rates makes the dollar more valuable. Quod erat demonstrandum.


So I say, Caveat media, at least when trying to explain market action.

The Watchlist.

I've split the Forex off into a separate section, recognizing that the Stocks Tribe and Forex Tribe don't necessarily have a large overlap.

Stocks

Psar bull signal:
  • CSCO, analysis. At $26.53. No breakout.
  • DIS, analysis. At $34.22. Broke above range and then dropped back, so no breakout.
  • GNW, analysis. At $17.09. Rose to $17.76, past the $17.35 reversal level, and then pulled back sharply. It will need a close watch.
  • KFT, analysis. At $30.67, pulled back from the top of yesterday's breakout. So I'm declaring this signal a SUCCESS, with a 5.4% rise, and removing it from the Watchlist.
  • * MGM, analysis. At $12.58, made another run up toward the top of the trading range and pulled back. Next nearest upside at $12.67; downside $11.50. In my analysis I pegged this a direction-agnostic iron condor, with maximum profit between $12-$10, or maybe $13-$11.
  • SPY, analysis. New today. At $116.84. Next reversal at $117.51 and then $121.91.
  • * XLE, analysis. At $57.04.  I pegged this as a a $56-$60 iron condor.
  • XLF, analysis. New today. At $15.92, no breakout.
  • XRT, analysis. At $41.15, XRT has moved below breakout territory. Next highest reversal is $41.44 and then $44.77.


What would it be like to open your accounts and never have any ugly surprises. Financial strategist Pamela Yellen tells how to get your money on the good news track.

Psar bear signal:
  • F, analysis. At $13.90, down a bit after Monday's big rise. Next lower reversal at $12.75. Next higher at $14.23 and $14.54. I'll watch it as long as it's declining at the end of each. Otherwise, off the island!
  • KBE, analysis. At $26.14, a penny above the next higher reversal level of $26.13. Next lower reversal at $24.78.
(*, above, means I hold a stock or options position in the issue.)

Forex

Psar bull signal: None.

Psar bear signal:
  • AUD/NZD, analysis. At 1.2922. Next lower reversal at 1.2873. Next upper reversal at 1.3065.
  • AUD/USD, analysis. At 0.9086, a breakdown below the 0.9095 reversal. Next reversal at 0.8978.
  • EUR/GBP, analysis. At 0.8958, after testing the 0.8910 level and then pulling back. Next downside reversal point at 0.8750. 
  • EUR/USD, analysis. At 1.3336. Cut through downside reversal. Next reversal at 1.2980.  Any pullback to the upside, and I declare this signal a success.
  • GBP/USD, analysis. New today. At 1.4886. Next reversal at 1.4871.

In my holdings:
  • XLE, an April iron condor with maximum profit at expiration between $56 and $59. Trading at $56.93.
  • NLY, shares, a dividend play. At $18.10.
  • MCO, an April covered call with a $29 strike, is trading at $30.31 with bull signals all around.
  • MGM, an iron condor with maximum profit expiration between $10 and $12. Trading at $12.57, so it's beyond the range of maximum profit at expiration.
  • PALM, shares, a zombie past its prime, is staggering down the street at $4.02.

New to Private Trader? Check out the Reader's Guide.


New to private trading? Here's a look at How to Become a Private Trader.

Abbreviations:
psar - Parabolic Stop and Reverse
adx - Average Directional Index
pps - Person's Proprietary Signal
ma20 - 20-day moving average
macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence
mfi - Money Flow Index
sto - Fast Stochastic


Vale, amicus!

    No comments:

    Post a Comment