Tuesday's Prospects

On Monday, Feb. 29:

Of 496 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds in my analytical universe, none broke beyond its 20-day price channel.

There is one prospect for a trade coinciding with an earnings announcements.

I shall do further analysis on Tuesday, March 1.

Earnings season begins April 11. The higher pace of announcements will continue for about four weeks.

Potential trades keyed to events

The dates are those of the events, all of them earns announcements. Events prior to the opening bell are marked "am", during the trading day "mid", and after the closing bell "pm".

Tuesday pm ROST

Wednesday am (none)

Methodology

The stocks in my analytical universe all have analyst coverage through the stock-ranking company Zacks Investment Research. Not all of the exchange-traded funds are so covered.

I screen the symbols for historical odds of a profitable signal in the direction of the breakout for the past 12 months.

For symbols whose odds of success are in the top or bottom thirds, suggesting a directional or non-directional trade, respectively, I next screen for 1) suitability of the options grid, including open interest of three figures or greater on the strike prices I would need to use to build a position, 2) implied volatility in the 60th percentile or greater of its 12-month range, and 3) the absence of an earnings announcement within the lifespan of the like options series I would trade.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Feb. 29, 2016

References

Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.

Alerts

Two social media feeds provide notification whenever something new is posted.

• On Twitter: Follow Tim Bovee: https://twitter.com/TimBovee
• On Facebook, Like Private Trader: https://www.facebook.com/PrivateTrader

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License



All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.Tss s ss'ss

Monday's Agenda

I had hoped that today's to prospects -- earnings plays on WDAY and MDT -- would develop sufficient open interest on the options to allow for a trade. But that didn't happen, and so I'm setting them aside.

My rule of thumb on open interest is that it must be at triple digits in the strike price range I would be interested in using in a trade, generally out from the money to the 85% chance of expiring out of the money point.

That leaves no viable prospects, and I have no plans to analyze potential new positions today.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Feb. 29, 2016

References

Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.

Alerts

Two social media feeds provide notification whenever something new is posted.

• On Twitter: Follow Tim Bovee: https://twitter.com/TimBovee
• On Facebook, Like Private Trader: https://www.facebook.com/PrivateTrader

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License



All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.Tss s ss'ss

The Week Ahead: Jobs, manufacturing, trade

The labor market will come under the markets' analytical and emotional microscopes on Friday with the release of the employment situation report at 8:30 a.m. New York time. A major payroll company's sneak preview, the ADP employment report, will be out on Wednesday at 8:15 a.m.

Two other major studies will punctuate the week: The Institute of Supply Management manufacturing survey on Tuesday at 10 a.m. and international trade on Friday at 8:30m a.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The average hourly workweek in manufacturing from the employment situation report at 8:30 a.m. Friday.

Manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials from the factory orders report at 10 a.m. Thursday.

Vendor performance, or the deliveries times index, from the ISM manufacturing survey at 10 a.m. Tuesday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

Manufacturers' new orders for non-defense capital goods from the factory orders report at 10 a.m. Thursday.

Events arranged by day:

Monday: Chicago Purchasing Managers index at 9:45 a.m., pending home sales at 10 a.m. and the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank manufacturing survey at 10:30 a.m.

Tuesday: Motor vehicle sales throughout the day, the Purchasing Managers Institute manufacturing index at 9:45 a.m., the ISM manufacturing survey and construction spending, each at 10 a.m.

Wednesday: The ADP employment report at 8:15 a.m., petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m. and the Federal Reserve "Beige Book" at 2 p.m.

Thursday:  Jobless claims and productivity and costs, each at 8:30 a.m., factory orders and the ISM non-manufacturing survey, each at 10 a.m., and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: Employment situation and international trade, each at 8:30 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.31%, up 0.18% from a week earlier.

Treasury Debt

Bills

• 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
• 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
• 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
• 52-week: Auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.

Notes

• 2-year: Settlement Monday.
• 5-year: Settlement Monday.
• 7-year: Settlement Monday.
• 10-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.

Bonds

• 30-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.

TIPS

• 30-year: Settlement Monday.

Fedsters

In a week marked by release of the Fed's "Beige Book" on Wednesday at 2 p.m., the Fed glitterati have fallen into a deep silence.

Only one, San Francisco Fed Pres. John Williams, who has no position on the Federal Open Market Committee this year, has plans to grasp the microphone and speak, on Wednesday.

Analytical universe

This week I shall be analyzing new trading signals from among 496 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds.

Good trading!

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Feb. 28, 2016

References


Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.

Alerts

Two social media feeds provide notification whenever something new is posted.

• On Twitter, Follow Tim Bovee: https://twitter.com/TimBovee
• On Facebook, Like Private Trader: https://www.facebook.com/PrivateTrader

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License



All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Tim Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com

Monday's Prospects

On Friday, Feb. 26:

Of 496 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds in my analytical universe, 14 broke beyond their 20-day price channels, 13 to the upside and one to the downside. None survived initial screening.

There are two prospects for trades coinciding with earnings announcements.

I shall do further analysis on Monday, Feb. 29.

Earnings season begins April 11. The higher pace of announcements will continue for about four weeks.

Potential trades keyed to events

The dates are those of the events, all of them earns announcements. Events prior to the opening bell are marked "am", during the trading day "mid", and after the closing bell "pm".

Monday pm WDAY

Tuesday am MDT

Methodology

The stocks in my analytical universe all have analyst coverage through the stock-ranking company Zacks Investment Research. Not all of the exchange-traded funds are so covered.

I screen the symbols for historical odds of a profitable signal in the direction of the breakout for the past 12 months.

For symbols whose odds of success are in the top or bottom thirds, suggesting a directional or non-directional trade, respectively, I next screen for 1) suitability of the options grid, including open interest of three figures or greater on the strike prices I would need to use to build a position, 2) implied volatility in the 60th percentile or greater of its 12-month range, and 3) the absence of an earnings announcement within the lifespan of the like options series I would trade.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Feb. 27, 2016

References

Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.

Alerts

Two social media feeds provide notification whenever something new is posted.

• On Twitter: Follow Tim Bovee: https://twitter.com/TimBovee
• On Facebook, Like Private Trader: https://www.facebook.com/PrivateTrader

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License



All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.Tss s ss'ss

Friday's Prospects

On Thursday, Feb. 25:

Of 496 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds in my analytical universe, 19 broke beyond their 20-day price channels, 18 to the upside and one to the downside. None survived initial screening.

There are no prospects for trades coinciding with earnings announcements.

Without prospects, I shall do no further analysis on Friday, Feb. 26.

Earnings season begins April 11. The higher pace of announcements will continue for about four weeks.

Methodology

The stocks in my analytical universe all have analyst coverage through the stock-ranking company Zacks Investment Research. Not all of the exchange-traded funds are so covered.

I screen the symbols for historical odds of a profitable signal in the direction of the breakout for the past 12 months.

For symbols whose odds of success are in the top or bottom thirds, suggesting a directional or non-directional trade, respectively, I next screen for 1) suitability of the options grid, including open interest of three figures or greater on the strike prices I would need to use to build a position, 2) implied volatility in the 60th percentile or greater of its 12-month range, and 3) the absence of an earnings announcement within the lifespan of the like options series I would trade.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Feb. 25, 2016

References

Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.

Alerts

Two social media feeds provide notification whenever something new is posted.

• On Twitter: Follow Tim Bovee: https://twitter.com/TimBovee
• On Facebook, Like Private Trader: https://www.facebook.com/PrivateTrader

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License



All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.Tss s ss'ss

Thursday's Outcomes

I considered AMT as a potential earnings play but declined to do a full analysis because implied volatility was lower than I prefer. I exited no positions.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Feb. 25, 2016

References

Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.

Alerts

Two social media feeds provide notification whenever something new is posted.

• On Twitter: Follow Tim Bovee: https://twitter.com/TimBovee
• On Facebook, Like Private Trader: https://www.facebook.com/PrivateTrader

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License



All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.Tss s ss'ss

Thursday's Agenda

One prospect is on my desk this morning, an earnings play on AMT.

One of the final hurdles a symbol must pass before I do a full analysis is that it must have implied volatility that is in the 60th percentile or greater of its most recent range.

AMT fails that test. It was at the 56th percentile when I added it to the prospects list last night. It has dropped to the 55th percentile this morning.

I'll keep an eye on it and if there should be an extraordinary leap in implied volatility, then I shall do an analysis. But for now, my judgement is that the symbol isn't tradeable for my purposes, and I intend no further analysis of new positions today.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Feb. 25, 2016

References

Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.

Alerts

Two social media feeds provide notification whenever something new is posted.

• On Twitter: Follow Tim Bovee: https://twitter.com/TimBovee
• On Facebook, Like Private Trader: https://www.facebook.com/PrivateTrader

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License



All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.Tss s ss'ss

Thursday's Prospects

On Wednesday, Feb. 24:

Of 496 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds in my analytical universe, two broke beyond their 20-day price channels, both to the upside. None survived initial screening.

There is one prospect for a trade coinciding with an earnings announcements.

I shall do further analysis on Thursday, Feb. 25.

Earnings season begins April 11. The higher pace of announcements will continue for about four weeks.

Potential trades keyed to events

The dates are those of the events, all of them earns announcements. Events prior to the opening bell are marked "am", during the trading day "mid", and after the closing bell "pm".

Thursday pm (none)

Friday am AMT

Methodology

The stocks in my analytical universe all have analyst coverage through the stock-ranking company Zacks Investment Research. Not all of the exchange-traded funds are so covered.

I screen the symbols for historical odds of a profitable signal in the direction of the breakout for the past 12 months.

For symbols whose odds of success are in the top or bottom thirds, suggesting a directional or non-directional trade, respectively, I next screen for 1) suitability of the options grid, including open interest of three figures or greater on the strike prices I would need to use to build a position, 2) implied volatility in the 60th percentile or greater of its 12-month range, and 3) the absence of an earnings announcement within the lifespan of the like options series I would trade.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Feb. 24, 2016

References

Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.

Alerts

Two social media feeds provide notification whenever something new is posted.

• On Twitter: Follow Tim Bovee: https://twitter.com/TimBovee
• On Facebook, Like Private Trader: https://www.facebook.com/PrivateTrader

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License



All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.Tss s ss'ss

Wednesday's Outcomes

I opened a position on CRM coinciding with an earnings announcement.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Feb. 24, 2016

References

Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.

Alerts

Two social media feeds provide notification whenever something new is posted.

• On Twitter: Follow Tim Bovee: https://twitter.com/TimBovee
• On Facebook, Like Private Trader: https://www.facebook.com/PrivateTrader

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License



All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.Tss s ss'ss

CRM Analysis

Update 4/1/2016: I exited CRM as a loss after the price moved above the position's zone of profitability. 

The exit was triggered by my new policy of exiting when a position's loss exceeds 150% of maximum potential profit. In CRM's case, near the close today that loss is at 169% of the max.

Shares gained 24.2% over 37 days, or a +230% annual rate. The options position produced a 62.8% loss on debit for a -620% annual rate.

---

The cloud computing and customer relationship management company Salesforce.com (CRM), headquartered in San Francisco, California, publishes earnings on Wednesday after the closing bell.

[CRM in Wikipedia]

CRM

I shall use the MAR series of options, which trades for the last time 51 days hence, on April 17.

Ranges

Implied volatility stands at 58%, which is 2.6 times the VIX, a measure of volatility of the S&P 500 index. CRM’s volatility stands in the 63rd percentile of its most recent range. The price used for analysis was $61.25.

Ranges implied by options and earnings

Week	SD1 68.2%	SD2 95%	Earns
Upper	74.48	87.71	68.62
Lower	48.02	34.79	53.88
Gain/loss	±$13.23	±$26.46	±$7.37

Implied volatility 1 and 2 standard deviations; maximum earns move
The Trade

CRM has been in a downtrend since Nov. 19, 2015. It reversed to the upside in a counter-trend correction on Feb. 9 but remains well below last year's peak.

All of the last four earnings announcements closed higher the next trading day.

Brokerages in aggregate give CRM a 74% enthusiasm index with 84% of 31 analysts issuing strong buy recommendations.

I shall go with a direction-neutral strategy but skew it to provide a larger profit zone to the upside compared to the downside.

Iron condor, short the $70 calls and long the $72.50 calls,
short the $52.50 puts and long the $40 puts,
sold for a credit and expiring April 18.
Probability of expiring out-of-the-money

APR	Strike	OTM
Upper	70	83.3%
Lower	52.5	73.3%

The premium is $0.81, which is 32% of the width of the position’s wings. The stock at the time of entry was priced at $60.58.

The risk/reward ratio is 2.1:1.

The zone of profit in the proposed trade covers a $8.75 move either way. The biggest immediate move after each of the past four earnings announcements was $7.37, and the average was $3.69. After eliminating the maximum and minimum post-earnings movements, the core tendency is $3.02.

Decision for My Account

I have opened a position on CRM as described above.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Feb. 24, 2016

References

Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.


Elliott wave analysis tracks patterns in price movements. StockCharts has a good explainer. The principal practioner of Elliott wave analysis is Robert Prechter at Elliott Wave International. His book, Elliott Wave Principle, is a must-read for people interested in this form of analysis, as is his most recent publication, Visual Guide to Elliott Wave Trading. 

Alerts

Two social media feeds provide notification whenever something new is posted.

• On Twitter, Follow Tim Bovee: https://twitter.com/TimBovee
• On Facebook, Like Private Trader: https://www.facebook.com/PrivateTrader

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License



All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

Wednesday's Agenda

I'll analyze CRM for a potential trade coinciding with an earnings announcement.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Feb. 24, 2016

References

Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.

Alerts

Two social media feeds provide notification whenever something new is posted.

• On Twitter: Follow Tim Bovee: https://twitter.com/TimBovee
• On Facebook, Like Private Trader: https://www.facebook.com/PrivateTrader

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License



All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.Tss s ss'ss

Wednesday's Prospects

On Tuesday, Feb. 23:

Of 496 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds in my analytical universe, four broke beyond their 20-day price channels, two in either direction. None survived initial screening.

There is one prospect for a trade coinciding with an earnings announcements.

I shall do further analysis on Wednesday, Feb. 24.

Earnings season begins April 11. The higher pace of announcements will continue for about four weeks.

Potential trades keyed to events

The dates are those of the events, all of them earns announcements. Events prior to the opening bell are marked "am", during the trading day "mid", and after the closing bell "pm".

Wednesday pm CRM

Thursday am (none)

Methodology

The stocks in my analytical universe all have analyst coverage through the stock-ranking company Zacks Investment Research. Not all of the exchange-traded funds are so covered.

I screen the symbols for historical odds of a profitable signal in the direction of the breakout for the past 12 months.

For symbols whose odds of success are in the top or bottom thirds, suggesting a directional or non-directional trade, respectively, I next screen for 1) suitability of the options grid, including open interest of three figures or greater on the strike prices I would need to use to build a position, 2) implied volatility in the 60th percentile or greater of its 12-month range, and 3) the absence of an earnings announcement within the lifespan of the like options series I would trade.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Feb. 23, 2016

References

Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.

Alerts

Two social media feeds provide notification whenever something new is posted.

• On Twitter: Follow Tim Bovee: https://twitter.com/TimBovee
• On Facebook, Like Private Trader: https://www.facebook.com/PrivateTrader

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License



All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.Tss s ss'ss

Tuesday's Outcomes

I wrote no analyses and placed no trades on Tuesday.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Feb. 23, 2016

References

Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.

Alerts

Two social media feeds provide notification whenever something new is posted.

• On Twitter: Follow Tim Bovee: https://twitter.com/TimBovee
• On Facebook, Like Private Trader: https://www.facebook.com/PrivateTrader

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License



All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.Tss s ss'ss

Tuesday's Prospects

On Monday, Feb. 22:

Of 496 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds in my analytical universe, 19 broke beyond their 20-day price channels, all to the upside. None survived initial screening.

There are no prospects for trades coinciding with earnings announcements.

Lacking prospects, I shall do further analysis on Tuesday, Feb. 23.

Earnings season begins April 11. The higher pace of announcements will continue for about four weeks.

Methodology

The stocks in my analytical universe all have analyst coverage through the stock-ranking company Zacks Investment Research. Not all of the exchange-traded funds are so covered.

I screen the symbols for historical odds of a profitable signal in the direction of the breakout for the past 12 months.

For symbols whose odds of success are in the top or bottom thirds, suggesting a directional or non-directional trade, respectively, I next screen for 1) suitability of the options grid, including open interest of three figures or greater on the strike prices I would need to use to build a position, 2) implied volatility in the 60th percentile or greater of its 12-month range, and 3) the absence of an earnings announcement within the lifespan of the like options series I would trade.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Feb. 22, 2016

References

Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.

Alerts

Two social media feeds provide notification whenever something new is posted.

• On Twitter: Follow Tim Bovee: https://twitter.com/TimBovee
• On Facebook, Like Private Trader: https://www.facebook.com/PrivateTrader

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License



All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.Tss s ss'ss

Monday's Outcomes

I wrote no analyses and placed no trades on Monday.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Feb. 22, 2016

References

Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.

Alerts

Two social media feeds provide notification whenever something new is posted.

• On Twitter: Follow Tim Bovee: https://twitter.com/TimBovee
• On Facebook, Like Private Trader: https://www.facebook.com/PrivateTrader

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License



All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.Tss s ss'ss

The Week Ahead: GDP, income/outlays, home sales, durables

The government takes a second swing at the 4th quarter gross domestic product on Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time, and simultaneously publishes another important "How are we doing" report, personal income and outlays.

Also out, existing home sales on Tuesday and new home sales on Wednesday, each at 10 a.m., and durable goods orders on Thursday at 8:30 a.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

Index of consumer expectations from the Univeristy of Michigan consumer sentiment report at 10 a.m. Friday.

Events arranged by day:

Monday: PMI manufacturing index flash release at 9:45 a.m.

Tuesday: S&P Case-Shiller home price index at 9 a.m. and consumer confidence and existing home sales, each at 10 a.m.

Wednesday: New home sales at 10 a.m. and petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

Thursday: Durable goods orders and jobless claims, each at 8:30 a.m.,  and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: GDP and personal income and outlays, each at 8:30 a.m., and consumer sentiment at 10 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.13%, up 0.01% from a week earlier.

Treasury Debt

Bills

• 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
• 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
• 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
• 52-week: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.

Notes

• 2-year: Auction Tuesday 1 p.m.
• 2-year floating rate: Auction Wednesday 11:30 a.m.
• 5-year: Auction Wednesday 1 p.m.
• 7-year: Auction Thursday 1 p.m.

Bonds

• None.

TIPS

• None.

Fedsters

Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer speaks on the subject Developments in Monetary Policy at CERAWeek 2016 in Houston, Texas on Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

Two governors address the 2016 U.S. Monetary Policy in New York City on Friday, Fed Gov. Jerome Powell will speak on Language after Liftoff: Fed Communications Away form the Zero Lower Bound at 10:15 a.m., and Fed Gov. Lael Brainard, on International Monetary Policy Synchronization at 1:30 p.m.

One other FOMC member is scheduled to make a public appearance: St. Louis Fed Pres. James Bullard on Wednesday.

One FOMC alternate is on the calendar: Dallas Fed Pres. Robert Kaplan on Wednesday.

The others from among the Fed glitterati will speak: Richmond Fed Pres. Jeffrey Lacker on Wednesday and Atlanta Fed Pres. Dennis Lockhart and San Francisco Fed Pres. John Williams, both on Thursday.

Analytical universe

This week I shall be analyzing new trading signals from among 496 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds.

Good trading!

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Feb. 21, 2016

References


Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.

Alerts

Two social media feeds provide notification whenever something new is posted.

• On Twitter, Follow Tim Bovee: https://twitter.com/TimBovee
• On Facebook, Like Private Trader: https://www.facebook.com/PrivateTrader

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License



All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Tim Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com

Monday's Prospects

On Friday, Feb. 19:

Of 496 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds in my analytical universe, three broke beyond their 20-day price channels, all to the upside. None survived initial screening.

There are no prospects for trades coinciding with earnings announcements.

Without prospects, I shall do no further analysis on Monday, Feb. 22.

Earnings season begins April 11. The higher pace of announcements will continue for about four weeks.

Methodology

The stocks in my analytical universe all have analyst coverage through the stock-ranking company Zacks Investment Research. Not all of the exchange-traded funds are so covered.

I screen the symbols for historical odds of a profitable signal in the direction of the breakout for the past 12 months.

For symbols whose odds of success are in the top or bottom thirds, suggesting a directional or non-directional trade, respectively, I next screen for 1) suitability of the options grid, including open interest of three figures or greater on the strike prices I would need to use to build a position, 2) implied volatility in the 60th percentile or greater of its 12-month range, and 3) the absence of an earnings announcement within the lifespan of the like options series I would trade.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Feb. 20, 2016

References

Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.

Alerts

Two social media feeds provide notification whenever something new is posted.

• On Twitter: Follow Tim Bovee: https://twitter.com/TimBovee
• On Facebook, Like Private Trader: https://www.facebook.com/PrivateTrader

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License



All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.Tss s ss'ss

Friday's Outcomes

I wrote no analyses and placed no trades on Friday.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Feb. 19, 2016

References

Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.

Alerts

Two social media feeds provide notification whenever something new is posted.

• On Twitter: Follow Tim Bovee: https://twitter.com/TimBovee
• On Facebook, Like Private Trader: https://www.facebook.com/PrivateTrader

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License



All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.Tss s ss'ss

Friday's Prospects

On Thursday, Feb. 18:

Of 475 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds in my analytical universe, seven broke beyond their 20-day price channels, all to the upside. None survived initial screening.

There are no prospects for trades coinciding with earnings announcements.

Lacking prospects, I shall do no further analysis on Friday, Feb. 19.

Earnings season begins April 11. The higher pace of announcements will continue for about four weeks.

Methodology

The stocks in my analytical universe all have analyst coverage through the stock-ranking company Zacks Investment Research. Not all of the exchange-traded funds are so covered.

I screen the symbols for historical odds of a profitable signal in the direction of the breakout for the past 12 months.

For symbols whose odds of success are in the top or bottom thirds, suggesting a directional or non-directional trade, respectively, I next screen for 1) suitability of the options grid, including open interest of three figures or greater on the strike prices I would need to use to build a position, 2) implied volatility in the 60th percentile or greater of its 12-month range, and 3) the absence of an earnings announcement within the lifespan of the like options series I would trade.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Feb. 18, 2016

References

Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.

Alerts

Two social media feeds provide notification whenever something new is posted.

• On Twitter: Follow Tim Bovee: https://twitter.com/TimBovee
• On Facebook, Like Private Trader: https://www.facebook.com/PrivateTrader

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License



All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.Tss s ss'ss

Thursday's Outcomes

I exited WMT for a profit one day after the earnings announcement.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Feb. 18, 2016

References

Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.

Alerts

Two social media feeds provide notification whenever something new is posted.

• On Twitter: Follow Tim Bovee: https://twitter.com/TimBovee
• On Facebook, Like Private Trader: https://www.facebook.com/PrivateTrader

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License



All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.Tss s ss'ss

Thursday's Prospects

On Wednesday, Feb. 17:

Of 475 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds in my analytical universe, 39 broke beyond their 20-day price channels, 38 to the upside and one to the downside. None survived initial screening.

There are no prospects for trades coinciding with earnings announcements.

I shall do further analysis on Thursday, Feb. 18.

Earnings season begins April 11. The higher pace of announcements will continue for about four weeks.

Methodology

The stocks in my analytical universe all have analyst coverage through the stock-ranking company Zacks Investment Research. Not all of the exchange-traded funds are so covered.

I screen the symbols for historical odds of a profitable signal in the direction of the breakout for the past 12 months.

For symbols whose odds of success are in the top or bottom thirds, suggesting a directional or non-directional trade, respectively, I next screen for 1) suitability of the options grid, including open interest of three figures or greater on the strike prices I would need to use to build a position, 2) implied volatility in the 66th percentile or greater of its 12-month range, and 3) the absence of an earnings announcement within the lifespan of the like options series I would trade.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Feb. 17, 2016

References

Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.

Alerts

Two social media feeds provide notification whenever something new is posted.

• On Twitter: Follow Tim Bovee: https://twitter.com/TimBovee
• On Facebook, Like Private Trader: https://www.facebook.com/PrivateTrader

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License



All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.Tss s ss'ss

Wednesday's Outcomes

I entered a position on WMT coinciding with an earnings announcement.

I exited AAL and DIS, each for a profit. I also exited MCD for a profit on Tuesday. (The trade went through at the end of the day and I missed the notification until today.)

I exited two positions whose options expire at the end of the week -- NFLX and VZ -- each for a loss.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Feb. 17, 2016

References

Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.

Alerts

Two social media feeds provide notification whenever something new is posted.

• On Twitter: Follow Tim Bovee: https://twitter.com/TimBovee
• On Facebook, Like Private Trader: https://www.facebook.com/PrivateTrader

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License



All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.Tss s ss'ss