Two other major reports will also be published, both on Wednesday: Housing starts at 8:30 a.m. and industrial production at 9:15 a.m.
U.S. markets will be closed on Monday for the President's Day holiday. London, Tokyo and Sydney will be open for business.
Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):
The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.
The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.
The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.
Building permits for new private homes from the housing starts report at 8:30 a.m. Wednesday.
The index of leading indicators, while itself not a leading indicator, consolidates them into a single score that I find to be a useful "you are here" marker for the business cycle. It will be published Thursday at 10 a.m.
Events arranged by day:
Monday: U.S. markets closed.
Tuesday: Empire State manufacturing survey at 8:30 a.m., housing market index at 10 a.m. and the Treasury's international capital report at 4 p.m.
Wednesday: Housing starts and the producer price index, each at 8:30 a.m., industrial production at 9:15 a.m. and the Federal Open Market Committee minutes at 2 p.m.
Thursday: Jobless claims at 8:30 a.m., the Philadelphia Federal Reserve business outlook survey at 8:30 a.m., petroleum inventories at 11 a.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.
Friday: The consumer price index at 8:30 a.m.
I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.12%, down 0.04% from a week earlier.
Treasury Debt
Bills
- 4-week: Announcement Tuesday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
- 3-month: Auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
- 6-month: Auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday
- 2-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
- 3-year: Settlement Tuesday.
- 5-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
- 7-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
- 10-year: Settlement Tuesday.
- 30-year: Settlement Tuesday.
- 30-year: Auction Thursday 1 p.m.
The Federal Open Market Committee minutes, to be released on Tuesday at 2 p.m., cover the Jan. 26-27 meeting wherein the committee held the Federal Funds rate steady a month after a raising it by 25 basis points.
Three FOMC members are scheduled to speak during the week: Boston Fed Pres. Eric Rosengren on Tuesday, St. Louis Fed Pres. James Bullard on Wednesday and Cleveland Fed Pres. Loretta Mester on Friday.
FOMC alternate Philadelphia Fed Pres. Patrick Harker takes to the podium on Tuesday
And one other of the Fed glitterati, San Francisco Fed Pres. John Williams, has scheduled a public appearance on Thursday.
Analytical universe
This week I shall be analyzing new trading signals from among 475 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds.
Good trading!
-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Feb. 14, 2016
References
Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.
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Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.License
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