tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38349753598893114032024-03-14T00:00:17.295-07:00Tim Bovee, Private TraderOlder posts, July 2010 to December 2016: <a href="http://timbovee.blogspot.com">timbovee.blogspot.com</a>.<br>
<br>
New posts, from December 2016: <a href="http://www.timbovee.com">www.timbovee.com</a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger6934125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3834975359889311403.post-72123875670758485152016-12-08T11:08:00.000-08:002016-12-09T19:18:21.341-08:00Moving to WordPress<span style="font-size: large;"><b>I have moved <i>Private Trader </i>from the Blogger platform to WordPress.</b></span><br />
<br />
The current URLs:<br />
<br />
On WordPress, for new posts: <a href="http://timbovee.wordpress.com/">timbovee.com</a><br />
<br />
On Blogger, for older posts, <a href="http://timbovee.blogspot.com/">timbovee.blogspot.com</a><br />
<br />
All internal links on older posts to <a href="http://www.timbovee.com/">www.timbovee.com</a> are not invalid. Copy the link and manually change the domains to <a href="http://timbovee.blogspot.com/">timbovee.blogspot.com</a> to access the material.<br />
<br />
<b>By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Dec. 9, 2016</b><br />
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3834975359889311403.post-27912060490896569542016-12-08T08:01:00.000-08:002016-12-08T08:02:47.029-08:00Thursday's AgendaBlogger's, like yesterday, won't let me publish long-form posts. Going short....<br />
<br />
I shall look at FNSR today as a potential earnings play.<br />
<br />
I have closed COST for a profit after earnings were published.<br />
<br />
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3834975359889311403.post-68124374190357597672016-12-07T17:57:00.001-08:002016-12-07T17:57:15.352-08:00Thursday's ProspectsBlogger is still not allowing me to close files properly through the browser interface, so I'm having to go through the iPhone app and shall be brief.<br />
<br />
One prospect for Thursday, a potential earnings play on FNSR.<br />
<br />
Also, I shall keep an eye on trades posted on <i><a href="http://www.dough.com/">Dough</a>.</i>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3834975359889311403.post-30717604760409071292016-12-07T12:37:00.001-08:002016-12-07T12:37:06.451-08:00Wednesday's OutcomesI entered three positions, two on my analysis and one based on a<a href="http://www.dough.com/"> <i>Dough</i></a> trade.<br />
<br />
The two earnings plays I entered are COST and HRB. I also analyzed CIEN but declined to take the trade.<br />
<br />
The volatility play posted on <i>Dough</i> was for XLF.<br />
<br />
Blogger, the platform upon which <i>PrivateTrader</i> runs, was semi-trashed today in its web browser interface. It wouldn't allow me post analyses I had saved, nor could I successfully type more than a sentence or two before it crashed.<br />
<br />
So I sent briefs on my iPhone app for Blogger. I'll post the full analyses once Blogger gets back in the game. (And indeed, I'm typing this using the browser interface, which is a good sign.)Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3834975359889311403.post-70523560030010215852016-12-07T11:51:00.001-08:002016-12-07T11:51:43.007-08:00FXE AnalysisBlogger is trashed big time except on my iPhone, so briefly.<div><br></div><div>Entered volatility play on XLF based on trade by Ryan at Dough -- www.dough.com.</div><div><br></div><div>Iron fly, short the $23 calls and puts, long the $25 calls and $21 puts.</div><div><br></div><div>Premium: $1.40.</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3834975359889311403.post-78217585950942500102016-12-07T11:17:00.003-08:002016-12-07T11:17:29.438-08:00COST AnalysisBlogger won't allow me to publish full analyses, so in brief:<br />
<br />
I have entered an earnings play on COST structured as follows:<br />
<br />
JAN series of options, which trades for the last time Jan. 20.<br />
<br />
Iron fly, short the $150 calls and long the $160 calls, short the $150 puts and long the 140 puts.<br />
<br />
The premium is $6.45.<br />
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3834975359889311403.post-50441363418159162142016-12-07T10:46:00.001-08:002016-12-07T10:46:59.638-08:00CIEN AnalysisBlogger won't allow me to post full analyses. So, briefly:<div><br></div><div>I have passed on CIEN as an earnings play because I can't get a wide enough profit zone to cover post-earnings moves</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3834975359889311403.post-45255481936285092142016-12-07T08:01:00.001-08:002016-12-07T08:01:18.293-08:00Wednesday's AgendaI shall be looking at three potential earnings plays: CIEN, COST and HRB.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b><i>By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Dec. 7, 2016</i></b></div>
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br /><br />
<b>References</b><br />
<b><br /></b><i>Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options</i>, a description of how I trade, can be read <a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/1XhTPzy5PR-AxYcnLkFQ1okRPVlaFWBfOBB3tomGtNIo/edit?usp=sharing">here</a>.<br />
<br />
<i>Small Lots: A new strategy</i> discusses the thinking behind the analysis that identified these trades and can be read here. The symbols noted in this post are intended for trading on a commission-free platform such as <a href="http://www.robinhood.com/">Robinhood Financial</a>. See my initial post on the strategy <a href="http://www.timbovee.com/2016/07/small-lot-trading-new-strategy.html">here</a>.<br />
<i><br /></i>
I can be reached via comments on Private Trader posts or by email at datnillc@gmail.com.<br />
<br />
<b>Alerts</b><br />
<div>
<br /></div>
Two social media feeds provide notification whenever something new is posted.
<br />
<ul>
<li>On Twitter: Follow Tim Bovee: <a href="https://twitter.com/TimBovee">https://twitter.com/TimBovee</a></li>
<li>On Facebook, Like <i>Private Trader</i>: <a href="https://www.facebook.com/PrivateTrader">https://www.facebook.com/PrivateTrader</a></li>
</ul>
<b><span style="font-size: x-small;">Disclaimer</span></b><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-size: x-small;">Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.</span></blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-size: x-small;">No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.</span></blockquote>
<b><span style="font-size: x-small;">License</span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></b>
<a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/" rel="license"><img alt="Creative Commons License" src="http://i.creativecommons.org/l/by-sa/4.0/80x15.png" style="border-width: 0;" /></a><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span property="dct:title" xmlns:dct="http://purl.org/dc/terms/"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span property="dct:title" xmlns:dct="http://purl.org/dc/terms/">All content on <i>Tim Bovee, Private Trader</i></span> by <a href="https://draft.blogger.com/www.timbovee.com" property="cc:attributionName" rel="cc:attributionURL" xmlns:cc="http://creativecommons.org/ns#">Timothy K. Bovee</a> is licensed under a <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/" rel="license">Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License</a>.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: x-small;">Based on a work at <a href="https://draft.blogger.com/www.timbovee.com" rel="dct:source" xmlns:dct="http://purl.org/dc/terms/">www.timbovee.com</a>.</span>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3834975359889311403.post-4712174041100846832016-12-06T17:34:00.000-08:002016-12-06T17:34:53.976-08:00Wednesday's ProspectsScreening of the Tuesday, Dec. 6 markets identified three prospective high options volatility trades.<br />
<br />
Three prospects will publish earnings and so are candidates for options volatility trades. They are CIEN, COST and HRB.<br />
<br />
I shall make final trading decisions on Wednesday, Dec. 7.<br />
<br />
I shall also consider trades posted on <i><a href="http://www.timbovee.com/2016/11/small-lots-strategy-analysis-72016.html">Dough</a></i> as part of my current learning project.<br />
<div>
<div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
I have suspended work on my small lots shares approach through December until I determine how to move forward, given the poor trading results of July through October. See <a href="http://www.timbovee.com/2016/11/small-lots-strategy-analysis-72016.html"><i>Small Lots Approach: Analysis 7/2016 through 10/2016</i>.</a><br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b><i>-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Dec. 6, 2016</i></b></div>
<br />
<table style="width: 80%px;" valign="middle">
<tbody>
<tr><td align="right" width="50%"><b><i></i></b><br />
<center>
<b><i>The FINTECH Book: The Financial Technology Handbook for Investors, Entrepreneus and Visionaries<br />by Susanne Chishti</i></b></center>
</td>
<td width="50%"><center>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="//ws-na.amazon-adsystem.com/widgets/q?ServiceVersion=20070822&OneJS=1&Operation=GetAdHtml&MarketPlace=US&source=ss&ref=as_ss_li_til&ad_type=product_link&tracking_id=daypoems-20&marketplace=amazon&region=US&placement=111921887X&asins=111921887X&linkId=3be1ad8461bdc37e9a5de3c5abe56ccc&show_border=true&link_opens_in_new_window=true" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
</center>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
<b>References</b><br />
<b><br /></b><i>Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options</i>, a description of how I trade, can be read <a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/1XhTPzy5PR-AxYcnLkFQ1okRPVlaFWBfOBB3tomGtNIo/edit?usp=sharing">here</a>.<br />
<br />
<i>Small Lots: A new strategy</i> discusses the thinking behind the analysis that identified these trades and can be read here. The symbols noted in this post are intended fortrading on a commission-free platform such as <a href="http://www.robinhood.com/">Robinhood Financial</a>.<br />
<i><br /></i>
I can be reached via comments on Private Trader posts or by email at datnillc@gmail.com.<br />
<br />
<b>Alerts</b><br />
<div>
<br /></div>
Two social media feeds provide notification whenever something new is posted.
<br />
<ul>
<li>On Twitter: Follow Tim Bovee: <a href="https://twitter.com/TimBovee">https://twitter.com/TimBovee</a></li>
<li>On Facebook, Like <i>Private Trader</i>: <a href="https://www.facebook.com/PrivateTrader">https://www.facebook.com/PrivateTrader</a></li>
</ul>
<b><span style="font-size: x-small;">Disclaimer</span></b><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-size: x-small;">Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.</span></blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-size: x-small;">No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.</span></blockquote>
<b><span style="font-size: x-small;">License</span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></b>
<a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/" rel="license"><img alt="Creative Commons License" src="http://i.creativecommons.org/l/by-sa/4.0/80x15.png" style="border-width: 0;" /></a><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span property="dct:title" xmlns:dct="http://purl.org/dc/terms/"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span property="dct:title" xmlns:dct="http://purl.org/dc/terms/">All content on <i>Tim Bovee, Private Trader</i></span> by <a href="https://draft.blogger.com/www.timbovee.com" property="cc:attributionName" rel="cc:attributionURL" xmlns:cc="http://creativecommons.org/ns#">Timothy K. Bovee</a> is licensed under a <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/" rel="license">Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License</a>.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: x-small;">Based on a work at <a href="https://draft.blogger.com/www.timbovee.com" rel="dct:source" xmlns:dct="http://purl.org/dc/terms/">www.timbovee.com</a>.</span>
</div>
</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3834975359889311403.post-65114931075083653432016-12-06T12:30:00.000-08:002016-12-06T12:30:25.217-08:00Tuesday's OutcomesI completed the exit of my 440-day-old diagonal spread on <a href="http://www.timbovee.com/2015/09/trading-low-volatility-ung-analysis.html">UNG</a>, and in updating the <a href="http://www.timbovee.com/2015/09/trading-low-volatility-ung-analysis.html">original post</a> I ponder three valuable lessons.<br />
<br />
I entered a position on <a href="http://www.timbovee.com/2016/12/iwm-analysis.html">IWM</a> based a trade posted on <i><a href="http://www.dough.com/">Doug</a>h</i>.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b><i>By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Dec. 6, 2016</i></b></div>
<br />
<table style="width: 80%px;" valign="middle">
<tbody>
<tr><td align="right" width="50%"><b><i></i></b><br />
<center>
<b><i>Visual Intelligence: Sharpen Your Perception, Change Your Life<br />by Amy E. Herman</i></b></center>
</td>
<td width="50%"><center>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="//ws-na.amazon-adsystem.com/widgets/q?ServiceVersion=20070822&OneJS=1&Operation=GetAdHtml&MarketPlace=US&source=ss&ref=as_ss_li_til&ad_type=product_link&tracking_id=daypoems-20&marketplace=amazon&region=US&placement=054438105X&asins=054438105X&linkId=e7aad609f11e1bfc39126c7e1b045a8b&show_border=true&link_opens_in_new_window=true" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
</center>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
<b>References</b><br />
<b><br /></b><i>Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options</i>, a description of how I trade, can be read <a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/1XhTPzy5PR-AxYcnLkFQ1okRPVlaFWBfOBB3tomGtNIo/edit?usp=sharing">here</a>.<br />
<br />
<i>Small Lots: A new strategy</i> discusses the thinking behind the analysis that identified these trades and can be read here. The symbols noted in this post are intended for trading on a commission-free platform such as <a href="http://www.robinhood.com/">Robinhood Financial</a>. See my initial post on the strategy <a href="http://www.timbovee.com/2016/07/small-lot-trading-new-strategy.html">here</a>.<br />
<i><br /></i>
I can be reached via comments on Private Trader posts or by email at datnillc@gmail.com.<br />
<br />
<b>Alerts</b><br />
<div>
<br /></div>
Two social media feeds provide notification whenever something new is posted.
<br />
<ul>
<li>On Twitter: Follow Tim Bovee: <a href="https://twitter.com/TimBovee">https://twitter.com/TimBovee</a></li>
<li>On Facebook, Like <i>Private Trader</i>: <a href="https://www.facebook.com/PrivateTrader">https://www.facebook.com/PrivateTrader</a></li>
</ul>
<b><span style="font-size: x-small;">Disclaimer</span></b><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-size: x-small;">Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.</span></blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-size: x-small;">No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.</span></blockquote>
<b><span style="font-size: x-small;">License</span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></b>
<a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/" rel="license"><img alt="Creative Commons License" src="http://i.creativecommons.org/l/by-sa/4.0/80x15.png" style="border-width: 0;" /></a><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span property="dct:title" xmlns:dct="http://purl.org/dc/terms/"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span property="dct:title" xmlns:dct="http://purl.org/dc/terms/">All content on <i>Tim Bovee, Private Trader</i></span> by <a href="https://draft.blogger.com/www.timbovee.com" property="cc:attributionName" rel="cc:attributionURL" xmlns:cc="http://creativecommons.org/ns#">Timothy K. Bovee</a> is licensed under a <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/" rel="license">Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License</a>.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: x-small;">Based on a work at <a href="https://draft.blogger.com/www.timbovee.com" rel="dct:source" xmlns:dct="http://purl.org/dc/terms/">www.timbovee.com</a>.</span>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3834975359889311403.post-42273516466304540582016-12-06T10:48:00.002-08:002016-12-06T10:48:27.289-08:00IWM Analysis<b><u>iShares Russell 2000 (<a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IWM?p=IWM">IWM</a>)</u></b><br />
<br />
This trading idea came from <i><a href="http://www.dough.com/">Dough</a></i> trader Ryan.<br />
<br />
I shall use the JAN06 series of options, which trades for the last time 31 days hence, on Jan. 6.<br />
<br />
Implied volatility stands at 18%, which stands in the 16th percentile of its annual range. The price used for analysis was $221.22.<br />
<br />
Ryan's trade differs from my normal practice in that implied volatility is low in relation to its annual range, and similarly low in relation to its most recent move. Here's his structure.<br />
<br />
<center>
<b>
Iron condor, short the $132.50 calls and long the $137.50 calls,<br />
short the $132.50 puts and long the $125.5 puts,<br />
sold for a credit and expiring Jan. 7.<br />
Probability of expiring out-of-the-money</b><br />
<table border="1" style="width: ”33%”px;">
<tbody>
<tr><th>JAN07</th><th>Strike</th><th>OTM</th><th>Δ</th></tr>
<tr><td>Upper</td><td>132.50</td><td>39.6%</td><td>62</td></tr>
<tr><td>Lower</td><td>132.50</td><td>58.3%</td><td>40</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
</center>
<center>
</center>
<br />
The premium is $3.83, which is 77% of the width of the position’s wings.<br />
<br />
The risk/reward ratio is 0.8:1.<br />
<br />
<b>Decision for My Account</b><br />
<br />
I have entered a position on IWM as described above. The shares at the time of entry were priced at $134.13.<br />
<br />
<div gt="" i="" style="text-align: center;">
<b>-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Dec. 6, 2016</b><br />
<b><br /></b></div>
<table style="width: 80%px;" valign="middle">
<tbody>
<tr><td align="right" width="50%"><b><i></i></b><br />
<center>
<b><i>The Social Organism: A Radical Understanding of Social Media to Transform Your Business and Life<br />by Alex Cuadros</i></b></center>
</td>
<td width="50%"><center>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="//ws-na.amazon-adsystem.com/widgets/q?ServiceVersion=20070822&OneJS=1&Operation=GetAdHtml&MarketPlace=US&source=ss&ref=as_ss_li_til&ad_type=product_link&tracking_id=daypoems-20&marketplace=amazon&region=US&placement=0316359521&asins=0316359521&linkId=9abcc778a033ecb30771f0a7ba0013b2&show_border=true&link_opens_in_new_window=true" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
</center>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
<br />
<b>References</b><br />
<b><br /></b><i>Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options</i>, a description of how I trade, can be read <a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/1XhTPzy5PR-AxYcnLkFQ1okRPVlaFWBfOBB3tomGtNIo/edit?usp=sharing">here</a>.<br />
<i><br /></i>
<br />
Elliott wave analysis tracks patterns in price movements. StockCharts has a good <a href="http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_analysis:elliott_wave_theory" target="_blank">explainer</a>. The principal practioner of Elliott wave analysis is Robert Prechter at <a href="http://elliottwave.com/" target="_blank">Elliott Wave International</a>. His book, <i><a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0932750753/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=390957&creativeASIN=0932750753&linkCode=as2&tag=daypoems-20" target="_blank">Elliott Wave Principle</a></i>, is a must-read for people interested in this form of analysis, as is his most recent publication, <i><a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1118445600/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=390957&creativeASIN=1118445600&linkCode=as2&tag=daypoems-20" target="_blank">Visual Guide to Elliott Wave Trading</a>. </i><br />
<br />
<b>Alerts</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<br />
<div>
Two social media feeds provide notification whenever something new is posted.</div>
<br />
<div>
<ul>
<li>On Twitter, Follow Tim Bovee: <a href="https://twitter.com/TimBovee">https://twitter.com/TimBovee</a></li>
<li>On Facebook, Like <i>Private Trader</i>: <a href="https://www.facebook.com/PrivateTrader">https://www.facebook.com/PrivateTrader</a></li>
</ul>
</div>
<br />
<b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-small;">Disclaimer</span></b><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-small;">Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.</span></blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-small;">No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.</span></blockquote>
<b><span style="font-size: x-small;">License</span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></b>
<a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/" rel="license"><img alt="Creative Commons License" src="http://i.creativecommons.org/l/by-sa/4.0/80x15.png" style="border-width: 0;" /></a><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span property="dct:title" xmlns:dct="http://purl.org/dc/terms/"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span property="dct:title" xmlns:dct="http://purl.org/dc/terms/">All content on <i>Tim Bovee, Private Trader</i></span> by <a href="https://draft.blogger.com/www.timbovee.com" property="cc:attributionName" rel="cc:attributionURL" xmlns:cc="http://creativecommons.org/ns#">Timothy K. Bovee</a> is licensed under a <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/" rel="license">Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License</a>.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: x-small;">Based on a work at <a href="https://draft.blogger.com/www.timbovee.com" rel="dct:source" xmlns:dct="http://purl.org/dc/terms/">www.timbovee.com</a>.</span>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3834975359889311403.post-47824830118218858952016-12-05T17:40:00.002-08:002016-12-05T17:40:42.440-08:00Tuesday's ProspectsScreening of the Monday, Dec. 5 markets identified no prospective high options volatility trades.<br />
<br />
Seven symbols from my pool have sufficiently high implied volatility or close to it to warrant further analysis:<br />
<style type="text/css"><!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}--></style><br />
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" dir="ltr" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: 1px solid #ccc; font-family: arial,sans,sans-serif; font-size: 13px; table-layout: fixed;"><colgroup><col width="100"></col></colgroup><tbody>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"COST"}" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">COST</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"FXE"}" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">FXE</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"GDXJ"}" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">GDXJ</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"TBT"}" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">TBT</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"TLT"}" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">TLT</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"UNG"}" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">UNG</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"XLU"}" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">XLU</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Each is disqualified: COST because earnings are near; FXE, TLT and UNG because I already hold positions; GDXJ and TBT because they they have the same underlying as positions I hold; and XLU because I recently passed on it after analysis.<br />
<br />
Although I've been unable to find positions under my guidelines, I shall also consider trades posted on <i><a href="http://www.timbovee.com/2016/11/small-lots-strategy-analysis-72016.html">Dough</a></i> as part of my current learning project.<br />
<div>
<div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
I have suspended work on my small lots shares approach through December until I determine how to move forward, given the poor trading results of July through October. See <a href="http://www.timbovee.com/2016/11/small-lots-strategy-analysis-72016.html"><i>Small Lots Approach: Analysis 7/2016 through 10/2016</i>.</a><br />
<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b><i>-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Dec. 5, 2016</i></b></div>
<br />
<table style="width: 80%px;" valign="middle">
<tbody>
<tr><td align="right" width="50%"><b><i></i></b><br />
<center>
<b><i>A Field Guide to Lies: Critical Thinking in the Information Age<br />by Daniel J. Levitin</i></b></center>
</td>
<td width="50%"><center>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="//ws-na.amazon-adsystem.com/widgets/q?ServiceVersion=20070822&OneJS=1&Operation=GetAdHtml&MarketPlace=US&source=ss&ref=as_ss_li_til&ad_type=product_link&tracking_id=daypoems-20&marketplace=amazon&region=US&placement=0525955224&asins=0525955224&linkId=4203dab2111da16d6019b06b7f3cf77a&show_border=true&link_opens_in_new_window=true" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
</center>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
<br />
<b>References</b><br />
<b><br /></b><i>Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options</i>, a description of how I trade, can be read <a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/1XhTPzy5PR-AxYcnLkFQ1okRPVlaFWBfOBB3tomGtNIo/edit?usp=sharing">here</a>.<br />
<br />
<i>Small Lots: A new strategy</i> discusses the thinking behind the analysis that identified these trades and can be read here. The symbols noted in this post are intended fortrading on a commission-free platform such as <a href="http://www.robinhood.com/">Robinhood Financial</a>.<br />
<i><br /></i>
I can be reached via comments on Private Trader posts or by email at datnillc@gmail.com.<br />
<br />
<b>Alerts</b><br />
<div>
<br /></div>
Two social media feeds provide notification whenever something new is posted.
<br />
<ul>
<li>On Twitter: Follow Tim Bovee: <a href="https://twitter.com/TimBovee">https://twitter.com/TimBovee</a></li>
<li>On Facebook, Like <i>Private Trader</i>: <a href="https://www.facebook.com/PrivateTrader">https://www.facebook.com/PrivateTrader</a></li>
</ul>
<b><span style="font-size: x-small;">Disclaimer</span></b><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-size: x-small;">Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.</span></blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-size: x-small;">No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.</span></blockquote>
<b><span style="font-size: x-small;">License</span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></b>
<a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/" rel="license"><img alt="Creative Commons License" src="http://i.creativecommons.org/l/by-sa/4.0/80x15.png" style="border-width: 0;" /></a><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span property="dct:title" xmlns:dct="http://purl.org/dc/terms/"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span property="dct:title" xmlns:dct="http://purl.org/dc/terms/">All content on <i>Tim Bovee, Private Trader</i></span> by <a href="https://draft.blogger.com/www.timbovee.com" property="cc:attributionName" rel="cc:attributionURL" xmlns:cc="http://creativecommons.org/ns#">Timothy K. Bovee</a> is licensed under a <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/" rel="license">Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License</a>.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: x-small;">Based on a work at <a href="https://draft.blogger.com/www.timbovee.com" rel="dct:source" xmlns:dct="http://purl.org/dc/terms/">www.timbovee.com</a>.</span>
</div>
</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3834975359889311403.post-80255895237647770072016-12-05T12:50:00.000-08:002016-12-05T12:50:44.338-08:00Monday's OutcomesI analyzed <a href="http://www.timbovee.com/2016/12/xlu-analysis.html">XLU</a> but declined to enter a position.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b><i>By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Dec. 5, 2016</i></b></div>
<br />
<table style="width: 80%px;" valign="middle">
<tbody>
<tr><td align="right" width="50%"><b><i></i></b><br />
<center>
<b><i>JFK and the Reagan Revolution: A Secret History of American Prosperity<br />by Lawrence Kudlow</i></b></center>
</td>
<td width="50%"><center>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="//ws-na.amazon-adsystem.com/widgets/q?ServiceVersion=20070822&OneJS=1&Operation=GetAdHtml&MarketPlace=US&source=ss&ref=as_ss_li_til&ad_type=product_link&tracking_id=daypoems-20&marketplace=amazon&region=US&placement=1595231145&asins=1595231145&linkId=0c87d9bd0aff4e418b02e8653dd06198&show_border=true&link_opens_in_new_window=true" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
</center>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
<b>References</b><br />
<b><br /></b><i>Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options</i>, a description of how I trade, can be read <a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/1XhTPzy5PR-AxYcnLkFQ1okRPVlaFWBfOBB3tomGtNIo/edit?usp=sharing">here</a>.<br />
<br />
<i>Small Lots: A new strategy</i> discusses the thinking behind the analysis that identified these trades and can be read here. The symbols noted in this post are intended for trading on a commission-free platform such as <a href="http://www.robinhood.com/">Robinhood Financial</a>. See my initial post on the strategy <a href="http://www.timbovee.com/2016/07/small-lot-trading-new-strategy.html">here</a>.<br />
<i><br /></i>
I can be reached via comments on Private Trader posts or by email at datnillc@gmail.com.<br />
<br />
<b>Alerts</b><br />
<div>
<br /></div>
Two social media feeds provide notification whenever something new is posted.
<br />
<ul>
<li>On Twitter: Follow Tim Bovee: <a href="https://twitter.com/TimBovee">https://twitter.com/TimBovee</a></li>
<li>On Facebook, Like <i>Private Trader</i>: <a href="https://www.facebook.com/PrivateTrader">https://www.facebook.com/PrivateTrader</a></li>
</ul>
<b><span style="font-size: x-small;">Disclaimer</span></b><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-size: x-small;">Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.</span></blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-size: x-small;">No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.</span></blockquote>
<b><span style="font-size: x-small;">License</span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></b>
<a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/" rel="license"><img alt="Creative Commons License" src="http://i.creativecommons.org/l/by-sa/4.0/80x15.png" style="border-width: 0;" /></a><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span property="dct:title" xmlns:dct="http://purl.org/dc/terms/"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span property="dct:title" xmlns:dct="http://purl.org/dc/terms/">All content on <i>Tim Bovee, Private Trader</i></span> by <a href="https://draft.blogger.com/www.timbovee.com" property="cc:attributionName" rel="cc:attributionURL" xmlns:cc="http://creativecommons.org/ns#">Timothy K. Bovee</a> is licensed under a <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/" rel="license">Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License</a>.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: x-small;">Based on a work at <a href="https://draft.blogger.com/www.timbovee.com" rel="dct:source" xmlns:dct="http://purl.org/dc/terms/">www.timbovee.com</a>.</span>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3834975359889311403.post-1382672379603767012016-12-05T11:37:00.000-08:002016-12-05T11:37:05.757-08:00XLU Analysis<b><u>Utilities SPDR ETF (<a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XLU/?p=XLU">XLU</a>)</u></b><br />
<br />
I shall use the JAN series of options, which trades for the last time 46 days hence, on Jan. 20.<br />
<br />
Implied volatility stands at 20%, which stands in the 51st percentile of its annual range and the 44th percentile of the most recent rise. The price used for analysis was $46.68.<br />
<br />
Here is a chart of XLU's daily implied volatility since late August.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-ce2fJ3UI6JY/WEXBUcTZTvI/AAAAAAAAMQw/bAU0B17eMK8qJfiSOYLVeslEH_8q4OGfACLcB/s1600/XLU_20161205.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-ce2fJ3UI6JY/WEXBUcTZTvI/AAAAAAAAMQw/bAU0B17eMK8qJfiSOYLVeslEH_8q4OGfACLcB/s640/XLU_20161205.png" width="620" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">XLU Implied Volatility, 8/25/2016 to 12/5/2016</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />Although the implied volatility's annual range, must barely, means my guideline that implied volatility be in the upper half of its movement for the past 12 months, the most recent range is somewhat lower.<br />
<br />
And the implied volatility movement is ambiguous. Does the decline over the last few days mean there is no way XLU will reach the 50th percentile? Or is it a pullback preparatory to a further rise?<br />
<br />
In either case, it's not reasonable time to enter a short options play, which relies on a decline in implied volatility for part its profit.<br />
<br />
<b>Decision for My Account</b><br />
<br />
I am declining to enter a position on XLU because of the trend in its implied volatility.<br />
<br />
<div gt="" i="" style="text-align: center;">
<b>-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Dec. 5, 2016</b></div>
<br />
<table style="width: 80%px;" valign="middle">
<tbody>
<tr><td align="right" width="50%"><b><i></i></b><br />
<center>
<b><i>Visual Guide to Elliott Wave Trading<br />by Wayne Gorman</i></b></center>
</td>
<td width="50%"><center>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="//ws-na.amazon-adsystem.com/widgets/q?ServiceVersion=20070822&OneJS=1&Operation=GetAdHtml&MarketPlace=US&source=ss&ref=as_ss_li_til&ad_type=product_link&tracking_id=daypoems-20&marketplace=amazon&region=US&placement=1118445600&asins=1118445600&linkId=7d2bc1351123eae19dd3dc3a4050e1d2&show_border=true&link_opens_in_new_window=true" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
</center>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
<br />
<b>References</b><br />
<b><br /></b><i>Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options</i>, a description of how I trade, can be read <a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/1XhTPzy5PR-AxYcnLkFQ1okRPVlaFWBfOBB3tomGtNIo/edit?usp=sharing">here</a>.<br />
<i><br /></i>
<br />
Elliott wave analysis tracks patterns in price movements. StockCharts has a good <a href="http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_analysis:elliott_wave_theory" target="_blank">explainer</a>. The principal practioner of Elliott wave analysis is Robert Prechter at <a href="http://elliottwave.com/" target="_blank">Elliott Wave International</a>. His book, <i><a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0932750753/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=390957&creativeASIN=0932750753&linkCode=as2&tag=daypoems-20" target="_blank">Elliott Wave Principle</a></i>, is a must-read for people interested in this form of analysis, as is his most recent publication, <i><a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1118445600/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=390957&creativeASIN=1118445600&linkCode=as2&tag=daypoems-20" target="_blank">Visual Guide to Elliott Wave Trading</a>. </i><br />
<br />
<b>Alerts</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<br />
<div>
Two social media feeds provide notification whenever something new is posted.</div>
<br />
<div>
<ul>
<li>On Twitter, Follow Tim Bovee: <a href="https://twitter.com/TimBovee">https://twitter.com/TimBovee</a></li>
<li>On Facebook, Like <i>Private Trader</i>: <a href="https://www.facebook.com/PrivateTrader">https://www.facebook.com/PrivateTrader</a></li>
</ul>
</div>
<br />
<b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-small;">Disclaimer</span></b><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-small;">Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.</span></blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-small;">No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.</span></blockquote>
<b><span style="font-size: x-small;">License</span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></b>
<a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/" rel="license"><img alt="Creative Commons License" src="http://i.creativecommons.org/l/by-sa/4.0/80x15.png" style="border-width: 0;" /></a><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span property="dct:title" xmlns:dct="http://purl.org/dc/terms/"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span property="dct:title" xmlns:dct="http://purl.org/dc/terms/">All content on <i>Tim Bovee, Private Trader</i></span> by <a href="https://draft.blogger.com/www.timbovee.com" property="cc:attributionName" rel="cc:attributionURL" xmlns:cc="http://creativecommons.org/ns#">Timothy K. Bovee</a> is licensed under a <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/" rel="license">Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License</a>.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: x-small;">Based on a work at <a href="https://draft.blogger.com/www.timbovee.com" rel="dct:source" xmlns:dct="http://purl.org/dc/terms/">www.timbovee.com</a>.</span>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3834975359889311403.post-14994303583547935502016-12-05T07:23:00.001-08:002016-12-05T07:23:30.615-08:00Monday's AgendaI shall look at XLU as a volatility play. I'm deferring analysis on the week's four potential earnings plays until Wednesday for CIEN, COST and HRB, and Thursday for FNSR.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b><i>By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Dec. 5, 2016</i></b></div>
<br />
<table style="width: 80%px;" valign="middle">
<tbody>
<tr><td align="right" width="50%"><b><i></i></b><br />
<center>
<b><i>Black Swan Start-ups: Understanding the Rise of Successful Technology Business in Unlikely Places<br />by Sami Mahroum</i></b></center>
</td>
<td width="50%"><center>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="//ws-na.amazon-adsystem.com/widgets/q?ServiceVersion=20070822&OneJS=1&Operation=GetAdHtml&MarketPlace=US&source=ss&ref=as_ss_li_til&ad_type=product_link&tracking_id=daypoems-20&marketplace=amazon&region=US&placement=1137577266&asins=1137577266&linkId=56011291a1d3360b34a2a0ab8b069036&show_border=true&link_opens_in_new_window=true" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
</center>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
<b>References</b><br />
<b><br /></b><i>Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options</i>, a description of how I trade, can be read <a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/1XhTPzy5PR-AxYcnLkFQ1okRPVlaFWBfOBB3tomGtNIo/edit?usp=sharing">here</a>.<br />
<br />
<i>Small Lots: A new strategy</i> discusses the thinking behind the analysis that identified these trades and can be read here. The symbols noted in this post are intended for trading on a commission-free platform such as <a href="http://www.robinhood.com/">Robinhood Financial</a>. See my initial post on the strategy <a href="http://www.timbovee.com/2016/07/small-lot-trading-new-strategy.html">here</a>.<br />
<i><br /></i>
I can be reached via comments on Private Trader posts or by email at datnillc@gmail.com.<br />
<br />
<b>Alerts</b><br />
<div>
<br /></div>
Two social media feeds provide notification whenever something new is posted.
<br />
<ul>
<li>On Twitter: Follow Tim Bovee: <a href="https://twitter.com/TimBovee">https://twitter.com/TimBovee</a></li>
<li>On Facebook, Like <i>Private Trader</i>: <a href="https://www.facebook.com/PrivateTrader">https://www.facebook.com/PrivateTrader</a></li>
</ul>
<b><span style="font-size: x-small;">Disclaimer</span></b><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-size: x-small;">Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.</span></blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-size: x-small;">No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.</span></blockquote>
<b><span style="font-size: x-small;">License</span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></b>
<a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/" rel="license"><img alt="Creative Commons License" src="http://i.creativecommons.org/l/by-sa/4.0/80x15.png" style="border-width: 0;" /></a><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span property="dct:title" xmlns:dct="http://purl.org/dc/terms/"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span property="dct:title" xmlns:dct="http://purl.org/dc/terms/">All content on <i>Tim Bovee, Private Trader</i></span> by <a href="https://draft.blogger.com/www.timbovee.com" property="cc:attributionName" rel="cc:attributionURL" xmlns:cc="http://creativecommons.org/ns#">Timothy K. Bovee</a> is licensed under a <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/" rel="license">Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License</a>.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: x-small;">Based on a work at <a href="https://draft.blogger.com/www.timbovee.com" rel="dct:source" xmlns:dct="http://purl.org/dc/terms/">www.timbovee.com</a>.</span>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3834975359889311403.post-38213304951815950602016-12-04T09:58:00.002-08:002016-12-04T09:58:58.978-08:00The Week Ahead: International tradeThe week after the monthly jobs report is always a slow one in economics. There is but one major economics report coming up this week: <b>International trade</b>, on Tiuesday at 8:30 a.m.<br />
<br />
<i>L</i><i>eading indicators (in descending order of importance):</i><br />
<br />
The <b>interest rate spread</b> between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.<br />
<br />
The <b>M2 money supply</b>, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.<br />
<br />
<b>Manufacturers' new ordrs for consumer goods and materials</b> from the <b>factory orders </b>report at 10 a.m. Tuesday.<br />
<br />
<span style="background-color: white;">The </span><b>S&P 500 index</b><span style="background-color: white;">, reported continually during market hours.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="background-color: transparent;"><b>Average weekly initial claims for unemployment</b> from the <b>jobless claims report</b> at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.</span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="background-color: transparent;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="background-color: transparent;"><b>Index of consumer expectations</b> from the <b>University of Michigan consumer sentiment</b> survey at 10 a.m. Friday.</span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="background-color: transparent;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="background-color: transparent;"><b>Manufacturers' new orders for non-defense capital goods</b> </span></span>from the <b>factory orders </b>report at 10 a.m. Tuesday.<br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="background-color: transparent;"><br /></span></span>
<br />
<table style="width: 80%px;" valign="middle">
<tbody>
<tr><td align="right" width="50%"><b><i></i></b><br />
<center>
<b><i>The Rise and Fall of American Growth<br />by Robert J. Gordon</i></b></center>
</td>
<td width="50%"><center>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="//ws-na.amazon-adsystem.com/widgets/q?ServiceVersion=20070822&OneJS=1&Operation=GetAdHtml&MarketPlace=US&source=ss&ref=as_ss_li_til&ad_type=product_link&tracking_id=daypoems-20&marketplace=amazon&region=US&placement=0691147728&asins=0691147728&linkId=6eda159ee0a4868f5cd3da07da400b28&show_border=true&link_opens_in_new_window=true" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
</center>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
<i style="background-color: transparent;">Events arranged by day:</i><br />
<br />
Monday: <b>Institute of Supply Management</b> <b>non-manufacturing index</b> at 10 a.m.<br />
<br />
Tuesday: <b>Factory orders</b> at 10 a.m.<br />
<br />
Wednesday: <b>Job openings and labor turnover</b> report at 10 a.m. and <b>petroleum inventories</b> at 10:30 a.m.<br />
<br />
Thursday: the <b>M2 money supply</b> at 4:30 p.m.<br />
<br />
Friday: <b>Employment</b> at 8:30 a.m. and <b>consumer sentiment</b> at 10 a.m.<br />
<br />
I also keep an eye on the <b>Baltic Dry Index</b>, updated daily, and the <b>5-year implied inflation rate</b> based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.83%, up two basis points from a week earlier.<br />
<br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="background-color: transparent;"><i>Treasury Debt</i></span></span><br />
<br />
<b>Bills</b><br />
<ul>
<li>4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday</li>
<li>3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.</li>
<li>6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thuresday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.</li>
<li>52-week: Auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.</li>
</ul>
<b>Notes</b><br />
<ul>
<li>3-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.</li>
</ul>
<div>
<b>Bonds</b></div>
<ul>
<li>30-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.</li>
</ul>
<b>TIPS</b><br />
<ul>
<li>None.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
</ul>
<i>Fedsters</i><br />
<br />
The Fed <i>glitterati</i> are thin ont he ground this week, with less than a handfull taking to podium, all on Monday. They are two Federal Open Market Committee members, <b>New York Fed Pres. William Dudley</b> and <b>St. Louis Fed Gov. James Bullard</b>, and one FOMC alternate,<br />
<div>
<b>Chicago Fed Pres. Charles Evans</b>.<br />
<br /></div>
<em style="color: #3b3e41; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.64px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Thought</span></em><br />
<em style="color: #3b3e41; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.64px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></em>
<br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #252525;">The </span><a href="https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Business" style="background: none rgb(255, 255, 255); color: #0b0080; text-decoration: none;" title="Business">business</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #252525;"> changes. The technology changes. The team changes. The team members change. The problem isn't change, per se, because change is going to happen; the problem, rather, is the inability to cope with change when it comes.</span></span><br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="color: #252525; font-style: italic;"><span style="background-color: white;">--</span></span><a href="https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Kent_Beck" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: none; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #0b0080; font-family: Times, "Times New Roman", serif; font-style: italic; text-decoration: none;" title="Kent Beck">Kent Beck</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #252525; font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif; font-style: italic;">,</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #252525; font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif; font-style: italic;"> </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #252525; font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">Extreme Programming Explained: Embrace Change<i> </i></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #252525; font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif; font-style: italic;">(2000)</span></div>
<div>
<span style="color: #252525; font-family: sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Dec. 4, 2016</b></div>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="background-color: transparent;"><span style="background-color: transparent;"><span style="background-color: transparent;"><b><br /></b><b>References</b><br /><span style="font-family: inherit;"><b><br /></b></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<i>Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options</i>, a description of how I trade, can be read <a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/1XhTPzy5PR-AxYcnLkFQ1okRPVlaFWBfOBB3tomGtNIo/edit?usp=sharing">here</a>.<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="background-color: transparent;"><span style="background-color: transparent;"><span style="background-color: transparent;"><b>Alerts</b></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="background-color: transparent;"><span style="background-color: transparent;"><span style="background-color: transparent;"><b><br /></b></span></span></span></span>
<br />
<div>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="background-color: transparent;"><span style="background-color: transparent;"><span style="background-color: transparent;">Two social media feeds provide notification whenever something new is posted.</span></span></span></span></div>
<div>
<ul><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="background-color: transparent;"><span style="background-color: transparent;"><span style="background-color: transparent;">
<li>On Twitter, Follow Tim Bovee: <a href="https://twitter.com/TimBovee">https://twitter.com/TimBovee</a></li>
<li>On Facebook, Like <i>Private Trader</i>: <a href="https://www.facebook.com/PrivateTrader">https://www.facebook.com/PrivateTrader</a></li>
</span></span></span></span></ul>
</div>
<b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-small;">Disclaimer</span></b><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-small;">Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.</span></blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-small;">No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.</span></blockquote>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="background-color: transparent;"><span style="background-color: transparent;"><span style="background-color: transparent;"><b><span style="font-size: x-small;">License</span></b><br /><b><span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></b><a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/" rel="license"><img alt="Creative Commons License" src="http://i.creativecommons.org/l/by-sa/4.0/80x15.png" style="border-width: 0px;" /></a><br /><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span property="dct:title" xmlns:dct="http://purl.org/dc/terms/"><br /></span></span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span property="dct:title" xmlns:dct="http://purl.org/dc/terms/">All content on <i>Tim Bovee, Private Trader</i></span> by <a href="https://draft.blogger.com/www.timbovee.com" property="cc:attributionName" rel="cc:attributionURL" xmlns:cc="http://creativecommons.org/ns#">Tim Bovee</a> is licensed under a <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/" rel="license">Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License</a>.</span><br /><span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: x-small;">Based on a work at <a href="https://draft.blogger.com/www.timbovee.com" rel="dct:source" xmlns:dct="http://purl.org/dc/terms/">www.timbovee.com</a></span></span></span></span></span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3834975359889311403.post-13926360179207538042016-12-03T11:57:00.001-08:002016-12-03T11:57:25.722-08:00Monday's ProspectsScreening of the Friday, Dec. 2 markets identified five prospective trades.<br />
<br />
I'll look at four stocks -- CIEN, COST, HRB and FNSR -- as potential earnings plays.<br />
<br />
XLU qualifies for further look based on its implied volatility compared to its annual range.<br />
<br />
I shall make final trading decisions on Monday, Dec. 5.<br />
<br />
Four symbols with implied volatility in the upper half of the annual range are eliminated from further considerations for reasons unrelated to volatility.<br />
<br />
I hold positions in TLT and FXE, and TBT and GDXJ duplicate sectors among my holdings.<br />
<br />
EWZ and UNG are close to having sufficiently high volatility in relation to their annual ranges. However, I hold positions in both.<br />
<br />
I shall also consider trades posted on <i><a href="http://www.timbovee.com/2016/11/small-lots-strategy-analysis-72016.html">Dough</a></i> as part of my current learning project.<br />
<div>
<div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
I have suspended work on my small lots shares approach through December until I determine how to move forward, given the poor trading results of July through October. See <a href="http://www.timbovee.com/2016/11/small-lots-strategy-analysis-72016.html"><i>Small Lots Approach: Analysis 7/2016 through 10/2016</i>.</a><br />
<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b><i>-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Dec. 3, 2016</i></b></div>
<br />
<table style="width: 80%px;" valign="middle">
<tbody>
<tr><td align="right" width="50%"><b><i></i></b><br />
<center>
<b><i>Book of Value: The Fine Art of Investing Wisely<br />by Anurag Sharma</i></b></center>
</td>
<td width="50%"><center>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="//ws-na.amazon-adsystem.com/widgets/q?ServiceVersion=20070822&OneJS=1&Operation=GetAdHtml&MarketPlace=US&source=ss&ref=as_ss_li_til&ad_type=product_link&tracking_id=daypoems-20&marketplace=amazon&region=US&placement=0231175426&asins=0231175426&linkId=cf23d5284b4f52623daeba2ba938175c&show_border=true&link_opens_in_new_window=true" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
</center>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
<br />
<b>References</b><br />
<b><br /></b><i>Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options</i>, a description of how I trade, can be read <a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/1XhTPzy5PR-AxYcnLkFQ1okRPVlaFWBfOBB3tomGtNIo/edit?usp=sharing">here</a>.<br />
<br />
<i>Small Lots: A new strategy</i> discusses the thinking behind the analysis that identified these trades and can be read here. The symbols noted in this post are intended fortrading on a commission-free platform such as <a href="http://www.robinhood.com/">Robinhood Financial</a>.<br />
<i><br /></i>
I can be reached via comments on Private Trader posts or by email at datnillc@gmail.com.<br />
<br />
<b>Alerts</b><br />
<div>
<br /></div>
Two social media feeds provide notification whenever something new is posted.
<br />
<ul>
<li>On Twitter: Follow Tim Bovee: <a href="https://twitter.com/TimBovee">https://twitter.com/TimBovee</a></li>
<li>On Facebook, Like <i>Private Trader</i>: <a href="https://www.facebook.com/PrivateTrader">https://www.facebook.com/PrivateTrader</a></li>
</ul>
<b><span style="font-size: x-small;">Disclaimer</span></b><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-size: x-small;">Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.</span></blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-size: x-small;">No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.</span></blockquote>
<b><span style="font-size: x-small;">License</span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></b>
<a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/" rel="license"><img alt="Creative Commons License" src="http://i.creativecommons.org/l/by-sa/4.0/80x15.png" style="border-width: 0;" /></a><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span property="dct:title" xmlns:dct="http://purl.org/dc/terms/"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span property="dct:title" xmlns:dct="http://purl.org/dc/terms/">All content on <i>Tim Bovee, Private Trader</i></span> by <a href="https://draft.blogger.com/www.timbovee.com" property="cc:attributionName" rel="cc:attributionURL" xmlns:cc="http://creativecommons.org/ns#">Timothy K. Bovee</a> is licensed under a <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/" rel="license">Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License</a>.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: x-small;">Based on a work at <a href="https://draft.blogger.com/www.timbovee.com" rel="dct:source" xmlns:dct="http://purl.org/dc/terms/">www.timbovee.com</a>.</span>
</div>
</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3834975359889311403.post-6268060769946657432016-12-02T12:44:00.000-08:002016-12-02T12:44:40.641-08:00Friday's OutcomesI exited two losing positions that trade for the last time on Dec. 16: <a href="http://www.timbovee.com/2016/11/fb-analysis.html">FB</a> and <a href="http://www.timbovee.com/2016/10/t-analysis.html">T</a>.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b><i>By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Dec. 2, 2016</i></b></div>
<br />
<table style="width: 80%px;" valign="middle">
<tbody>
<tr><td align="right" width="50%"><b><i></i></b><br />
<center>
<b><i>Penny Stocks: How to Become a Pro at Trading Penny Stocks<br />by David Nelson</i></b></center>
</td>
<td width="50%"><center>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="//ws-na.amazon-adsystem.com/widgets/q?ServiceVersion=20070822&OneJS=1&Operation=GetAdHtml&MarketPlace=US&source=ss&ref=as_ss_li_til&ad_type=product_link&tracking_id=daypoems-20&marketplace=amazon&region=US&placement=1539016803&asins=1539016803&linkId=dc5c716c7aa0c142790176e4b6fe9c3c&show_border=true&link_opens_in_new_window=true" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
</center>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
<b>References</b><br />
<b><br /></b><i>Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options</i>, a description of how I trade, can be read <a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/1XhTPzy5PR-AxYcnLkFQ1okRPVlaFWBfOBB3tomGtNIo/edit?usp=sharing">here</a>.<br />
<br />
<i>Small Lots: A new strategy</i> discusses the thinking behind the analysis that identified these trades and can be read here. The symbols noted in this post are intended for trading on a commission-free platform such as <a href="http://www.robinhood.com/">Robinhood Financial</a>. See my initial post on the strategy <a href="http://www.timbovee.com/2016/07/small-lot-trading-new-strategy.html">here</a>.<br />
<i><br /></i>
I can be reached via comments on Private Trader posts or by email at datnillc@gmail.com.<br />
<br />
<b>Alerts</b><br />
<div>
<br /></div>
Two social media feeds provide notification whenever something new is posted.
<br />
<ul>
<li>On Twitter: Follow Tim Bovee: <a href="https://twitter.com/TimBovee">https://twitter.com/TimBovee</a></li>
<li>On Facebook, Like <i>Private Trader</i>: <a href="https://www.facebook.com/PrivateTrader">https://www.facebook.com/PrivateTrader</a></li>
</ul>
<b><span style="font-size: x-small;">Disclaimer</span></b><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-size: x-small;">Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.</span></blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-size: x-small;">No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.</span></blockquote>
<b><span style="font-size: x-small;">License</span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></b>
<a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/" rel="license"><img alt="Creative Commons License" src="http://i.creativecommons.org/l/by-sa/4.0/80x15.png" style="border-width: 0;" /></a><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span property="dct:title" xmlns:dct="http://purl.org/dc/terms/"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span property="dct:title" xmlns:dct="http://purl.org/dc/terms/">All content on <i>Tim Bovee, Private Trader</i></span> by <a href="https://draft.blogger.com/www.timbovee.com" property="cc:attributionName" rel="cc:attributionURL" xmlns:cc="http://creativecommons.org/ns#">Timothy K. Bovee</a> is licensed under a <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/" rel="license">Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License</a>.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: x-small;">Based on a work at <a href="https://draft.blogger.com/www.timbovee.com" rel="dct:source" xmlns:dct="http://purl.org/dc/terms/">www.timbovee.com</a>.</span>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3834975359889311403.post-70986051196762636572016-12-02T06:56:00.003-08:002016-12-02T07:03:55.825-08:00Friday's AgendaBoth of my prospects -- XLU and IYR -- are showing implied volatility levels this morning below my guidelines, and I am passing on them without further analysis. See <a href="http://www.timbovee.com/2016/12/fridays-prospects.html" style="font-style: italic;">Friday's Prospects</a> for details<i>.</i><br />
<br />
I'm emulating <i><a href="http://www.dough.com/">Dough</a></i> this month as a learning exercise, and if their team places trades I find interesting, I shall follow them.<br />
<br />
With expiration of the DEC options 14 days away, I shall complete exits of my losing positions: FB and T.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b><i>By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Dec. 2, 2016</i></b></div>
<br />
<table style="width: 80%px;" valign="middle">
<tbody>
<tr><td align="right" width="50%"><b><i></i></b><br />
<center>
<b><i>Weapons of Math Destruction: How Big Data Increases Inequality and Threatens Democracy<br />by Cathy O'Neil</i></b></center>
</td>
<td width="50%"><center>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="//ws-na.amazon-adsystem.com/widgets/q?ServiceVersion=20070822&OneJS=1&Operation=GetAdHtml&MarketPlace=US&source=ss&ref=as_ss_li_til&ad_type=product_link&tracking_id=daypoems-20&marketplace=amazon&region=US&placement=0553418815&asins=0553418815&linkId=6430c78da5138f06043375ef310c2e18&show_border=true&link_opens_in_new_window=true" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
</center>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
<b>References</b><br />
<b><br /></b><i>Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options</i>, a description of how I trade, can be read <a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/1XhTPzy5PR-AxYcnLkFQ1okRPVlaFWBfOBB3tomGtNIo/edit?usp=sharing">here</a>.<br />
<br />
<i>Small Lots: A new strategy</i> discusses the thinking behind the analysis that identified these trades and can be read here. The symbols noted in this post are intended for trading on a commission-free platform such as <a href="http://www.robinhood.com/">Robinhood Financial</a>. See my initial post on the strategy <a href="http://www.timbovee.com/2016/07/small-lot-trading-new-strategy.html">here</a>.<br />
<i><br /></i>
I can be reached via comments on Private Trader posts or by email at datnillc@gmail.com.<br />
<br />
<b>Alerts</b><br />
<div>
<br /></div>
Two social media feeds provide notification whenever something new is posted.
<br />
<ul>
<li>On Twitter: Follow Tim Bovee: <a href="https://twitter.com/TimBovee">https://twitter.com/TimBovee</a></li>
<li>On Facebook, Like <i>Private Trader</i>: <a href="https://www.facebook.com/PrivateTrader">https://www.facebook.com/PrivateTrader</a></li>
</ul>
<b><span style="font-size: x-small;">Disclaimer</span></b><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-size: x-small;">Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.</span></blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-size: x-small;">No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.</span></blockquote>
<b><span style="font-size: x-small;">License</span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></b>
<a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/" rel="license"><img alt="Creative Commons License" src="http://i.creativecommons.org/l/by-sa/4.0/80x15.png" style="border-width: 0;" /></a><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span property="dct:title" xmlns:dct="http://purl.org/dc/terms/"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span property="dct:title" xmlns:dct="http://purl.org/dc/terms/">All content on <i>Tim Bovee, Private Trader</i></span> by <a href="https://draft.blogger.com/www.timbovee.com" property="cc:attributionName" rel="cc:attributionURL" xmlns:cc="http://creativecommons.org/ns#">Timothy K. Bovee</a> is licensed under a <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/" rel="license">Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License</a>.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: x-small;">Based on a work at <a href="https://draft.blogger.com/www.timbovee.com" rel="dct:source" xmlns:dct="http://purl.org/dc/terms/">www.timbovee.com</a>.</span>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3834975359889311403.post-6192293850204391412016-12-01T17:52:00.001-08:002016-12-01T17:52:50.258-08:00Friday's ProspectsScreening of the Thursday, Dec. 1 markets identified two prospective high options volatility trades.<br />
<br />
I shall make final trading decisions on Friday, Dec. 2.<br />
<br />
Seven prospects in the pool have sufficiently high implied volatility to qualify for further analysis:<br />
<br />
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" dir="ltr" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: 1px solid #ccc; font-family: arial,sans,sans-serif; font-size: 13px; table-layout: fixed;"><colgroup><col width="100"></col></colgroup><tbody>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"COST"}" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">COST</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"EWZ"}" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">EWZ</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"TBT"}" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">TBT</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"TLT"}" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">TLT</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"XLU"}" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">XLU</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"FXE"}" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">FXE</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"GDXJ"}" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">GDXJ</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Out of them, I shall analyze XLU as a potential trade.<br />
<br />
I already hold positions in EWZ, TLT and FXE. TBT and GDXJ are close enough to holdings to be disqualified. COST publishes earnings Dec. 12 and I shall wait until closer to that event to consider it.<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Two are close to having sufficiently high volatility to qualify.</div>
<div>
<style type="text/css"><!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}--></style><br />
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" dir="ltr" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: 1px solid #ccc; font-family: arial,sans,sans-serif; font-size: 13px; table-layout: fixed;"><colgroup><col width="100"></col></colgroup><tbody>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"ORCL"}" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">ORCL</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"IYR"}" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">IYR</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
I'll consider IYR for a potential trade. ORCL publishes earnings on Dec. 15 and I shall defer consideration until closer to the date.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
I shall also consider trades posted on <i><a href="http://www.timbovee.com/2016/11/small-lots-strategy-analysis-72016.html">Dough</a></i> as part of my current learning project.<br />
<div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
I have suspended work on my small lots shares approach through December until I determine how to move forward, given the poor trading results of July through October. See <a href="http://www.timbovee.com/2016/11/small-lots-strategy-analysis-72016.html"><i>Small Lots Approach: Analysis 7/2016 through 10/2016</i>.</a><br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b><i>-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Dec. 1, 2016</i></b></div>
<br />
<table style="width: 80%px;" valign="middle">
<tbody>
<tr><td align="right" width="50%"><b><i></i></b><br />
<center>
<b><i>The Business Blockchain: Promise, Practice, and Application of the Next Internet Technology<br />by William Mougayar</i></b></center>
</td>
<td width="50%"><center>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="//ws-na.amazon-adsystem.com/widgets/q?ServiceVersion=20070822&OneJS=1&Operation=GetAdHtml&MarketPlace=US&source=ss&ref=as_ss_li_til&ad_type=product_link&tracking_id=daypoems-20&marketplace=amazon&region=US&placement=1119300312&asins=1119300312&linkId=13c8152e30ed6db5bd152b3e9abf537e&show_border=true&link_opens_in_new_window=true" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
</center>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
<b>References</b><br />
<b><br /></b><i>Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options</i>, a description of how I trade, can be read <a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/1XhTPzy5PR-AxYcnLkFQ1okRPVlaFWBfOBB3tomGtNIo/edit?usp=sharing">here</a>.<br />
<br />
<i>Small Lots: A new strategy</i> discusses the thinking behind the analysis that identified these trades and can be read here. The symbols noted in this post are intended fortrading on a commission-free platform such as <a href="http://www.robinhood.com/">Robinhood Financial</a>.<br />
<i><br /></i>
I can be reached via comments on Private Trader posts or by email at datnillc@gmail.com.<br />
<br />
<b>Alerts</b><br />
<div>
<br /></div>
Two social media feeds provide notification whenever something new is posted.
<br />
<ul>
<li>On Twitter: Follow Tim Bovee: <a href="https://twitter.com/TimBovee">https://twitter.com/TimBovee</a></li>
<li>On Facebook, Like <i>Private Trader</i>: <a href="https://www.facebook.com/PrivateTrader">https://www.facebook.com/PrivateTrader</a></li>
</ul>
<b><span style="font-size: x-small;">Disclaimer</span></b><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-size: x-small;">Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.</span></blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-size: x-small;">No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.</span></blockquote>
<b><span style="font-size: x-small;">License</span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></b>
<a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/" rel="license"><img alt="Creative Commons License" src="http://i.creativecommons.org/l/by-sa/4.0/80x15.png" style="border-width: 0;" /></a><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span property="dct:title" xmlns:dct="http://purl.org/dc/terms/"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span property="dct:title" xmlns:dct="http://purl.org/dc/terms/">All content on <i>Tim Bovee, Private Trader</i></span> by <a href="https://draft.blogger.com/www.timbovee.com" property="cc:attributionName" rel="cc:attributionURL" xmlns:cc="http://creativecommons.org/ns#">Timothy K. Bovee</a> is licensed under a <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/" rel="license">Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License</a>.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: x-small;">Based on a work at <a href="https://draft.blogger.com/www.timbovee.com" rel="dct:source" xmlns:dct="http://purl.org/dc/terms/">www.timbovee.com</a>.</span>
</div>
</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3834975359889311403.post-37057945145170850192016-12-01T13:12:00.001-08:002016-12-01T13:12:03.238-08:00Thursday's OutcomesI exited a volatility play on <a href="http://www.timbovee.com/2016/11/xlv-analysis.html">XLV</a> for a profit. I entered a position on <a href="http://www.timbovee.com/2016/12/gld-analysis.html">GLD</a> based on a <i><a href="http://www.dough.com/">Dough</a></i> trade.<br />
<br />
<table style="width: 80%px;" valign="middle">
<tbody>
<tr><td align="right" width="50%"><b><i></i></b><br />
<center>
<b><i>The Art of Risk: The New Science of Courage, Caution, and Chance<br />by Kayt Sukei</i></b></center>
</td>
<td width="50%"><center>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="//ws-na.amazon-adsystem.com/widgets/q?ServiceVersion=20070822&OneJS=1&Operation=GetAdHtml&MarketPlace=US&source=ss&ref=as_ss_li_til&ad_type=product_link&tracking_id=daypoems-20&marketplace=amazon&region=US&placement=1426214723&asins=1426214723&linkId=e61255983a6e933dbf1d3dec4349b2cb&show_border=true&link_opens_in_new_window=true" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
</center>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
<b>References</b><br />
<b><br /></b><i>Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options</i>, a description of how I trade, can be read <a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/1XhTPzy5PR-AxYcnLkFQ1okRPVlaFWBfOBB3tomGtNIo/edit?usp=sharing">here</a>.<br />
<br />
<i>Small Lots: A new strategy</i> discusses the thinking behind the analysis that identified these trades and can be read here. The symbols noted in this post are intended for trading on a commission-free platform such as <a href="http://www.robinhood.com/">Robinhood Financial</a>. See my initial post on the strategy <a href="http://www.timbovee.com/2016/07/small-lot-trading-new-strategy.html">here</a>.<br />
<i><br /></i>
I can be reached via comments on Private Trader posts or by email at datnillc@gmail.com.<br />
<br />
<b>Alerts</b><br />
<div>
<br /></div>
Two social media feeds provide notification whenever something new is posted.
<br />
<ul>
<li>On Twitter: Follow Tim Bovee: <a href="https://twitter.com/TimBovee">https://twitter.com/TimBovee</a></li>
<li>On Facebook, Like <i>Private Trader</i>: <a href="https://www.facebook.com/PrivateTrader">https://www.facebook.com/PrivateTrader</a></li>
</ul>
<b><span style="font-size: x-small;">Disclaimer</span></b><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-size: x-small;">Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.</span></blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-size: x-small;">No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.</span></blockquote>
<b><span style="font-size: x-small;">License</span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></b>
<a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/" rel="license"><img alt="Creative Commons License" src="http://i.creativecommons.org/l/by-sa/4.0/80x15.png" style="border-width: 0;" /></a><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span property="dct:title" xmlns:dct="http://purl.org/dc/terms/"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span property="dct:title" xmlns:dct="http://purl.org/dc/terms/">All content on <i>Tim Bovee, Private Trader</i></span> by <a href="https://draft.blogger.com/www.timbovee.com" property="cc:attributionName" rel="cc:attributionURL" xmlns:cc="http://creativecommons.org/ns#">Timothy K. Bovee</a> is licensed under a <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/" rel="license">Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License</a>.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: x-small;">Based on a work at <a href="https://draft.blogger.com/www.timbovee.com" rel="dct:source" xmlns:dct="http://purl.org/dc/terms/">www.timbovee.com</a>.</span>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3834975359889311403.post-23236525269431309902016-12-01T12:46:00.003-08:002016-12-03T15:57:36.395-08:00GLD Analysis<b><u>SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)</u></b><br>
<br>
The idea for this position came from trader Nick Batista at <i><a href="http://www.dough.com/">Dough</a>.</i> The structure produces a higher risk/reward ratio in return for wide wings on the iron condor and also has a lower implied volatility percentile than my guidelines allow.<br>
<br>
The position, although hedged on both sides, has a long bias.<br>
<i><br></i>
Like Nick, I shall use the JAN series of options, which trades for the last time 50 days hence, on Jan. 20.<br>
<br>
Implied volatility stands at 19%, which stands in the 35th percentile of its annual range. The price used for analysis was $111.73.<br>
<br>
<center>
<b>
Iron condor, short the $117 calls and long the $127 calls,<br>
short the $110 puts and long the $100 puts,<br>
sold for a credit and expiring Jan. 21.<br>
Probability of expiring out-of-the-money</b><br>
<table border="1" style="width: ”33%”px;">
<tbody>
<tr><th>JAN</th><th>Strike</th><th>OTM</th><th>Δ</th></tr>
<tr><td>Upper</td><td>117</td><td>78.1%</td><td>24</td></tr>
<tr><td>Lower</td><td>110</td><td>59.1%</td><td>38</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
</center>
<center>
<br></center>
The premium is $2.38, which is 24% of the width of the position’s wings.<br>
<br>
The risk/reward ratio is 3.2:1.<br>
<br>
<b>Decision for My Account</b><br>
<br>
I've entered a position on GLD as described above. The stock at the time of entry was priced at $111.75.<br>
<br>
<div gt="" i="" style="text-align: center;">
<b>-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Dec. 1, 2016</b></div>
<br>
<a name="more"></a><br>
<br>
<b>References</b><br>
<b><br></b><i>Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options</i>, a description of how I trade, can be read <a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/1XhTPzy5PR-AxYcnLkFQ1okRPVlaFWBfOBB3tomGtNIo/edit?usp=sharing">here</a>.<br>
<i><br></i>
<br>
Elliott wave analysis tracks patterns in price movements. StockCharts has a good <a href="http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_analysis:elliott_wave_theory" target="_blank">explainer</a>. The principal practioner of Elliott wave analysis is Robert Prechter at <a href="http://elliottwave.com/" target="_blank">Elliott Wave International</a>. His book, <i><a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0932750753/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=390957&creativeASIN=0932750753&linkCode=as2&tag=daypoems-20" target="_blank">Elliott Wave Principle</a></i>, is a must-read for people interested in this form of analysis, as is his most recent publication, <i><a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1118445600/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=390957&creativeASIN=1118445600&linkCode=as2&tag=daypoems-20" target="_blank">Visual Guide to Elliott Wave Trading</a>. </i><br>
<br>
<b>Alerts</b><br>
<b><br></b>
<br>
<div>
Two social media feeds provide notification whenever something new is posted.</div>
<br>
<div>
<ul>
<li>On Twitter, Follow Tim Bovee: <a href="https://twitter.com/TimBovee">https://twitter.com/TimBovee</a></li>
<li>On Facebook, Like <i>Private Trader</i>: <a href="https://www.facebook.com/PrivateTrader">https://www.facebook.com/PrivateTrader</a></li>
</ul>
</div>
<br>
<b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-small;">Disclaimer</span></b><br>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-small;">Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.</span></blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-small;">No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.</span></blockquote>
<b><span style="font-size: x-small;">License</span></b><br>
<b><span style="font-size: x-small;"><br></span></b>
<a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/" rel="license"><img alt="Creative Commons License" src="http://i.creativecommons.org/l/by-sa/4.0/80x15.png" style="border-width: 0;"></a><br>
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span property="dct:title" xmlns:dct="http://purl.org/dc/terms/"><br></span></span>
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span property="dct:title" xmlns:dct="http://purl.org/dc/terms/">All content on <i>Tim Bovee, Private Trader</i></span> by <a href="https://draft.blogger.com/www.timbovee.com" property="cc:attributionName" rel="cc:attributionURL" xmlns:cc="http://creativecommons.org/ns#">Timothy K. Bovee</a> is licensed under a <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/" rel="license">Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License</a>.</span><br>
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><br></span>
<span style="font-size: x-small;">Based on a work at <a href="https://draft.blogger.com/www.timbovee.com" rel="dct:source" xmlns:dct="http://purl.org/dc/terms/">www.timbovee.com</a>.</span>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3834975359889311403.post-71417793938493816222016-12-01T09:24:00.001-08:002016-12-01T10:15:12.102-08:00Earns Prospects 12/5-12/9Out of 97 earnings announcements by companies on U.S. exchanges from Dec. 5 through Dec. 9, six have sufficient liquidity to warrant further analysis and possibly a trade next week.<br />
<br />
<style type="text/css"><!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}--></style><br />
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" dir="ltr" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: 1px solid #ccc; font-family: arial,sans,sans-serif; font-size: 13px; table-layout: fixed;"><colgroup><col width="100"></col><col width="100"></col><col width="100"></col><col width="100"></col></colgroup><tbody>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-numberformat="{"1":5,"2":"m\"/\"d","3":1}" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"action"}" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 90%; font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom; vertical-align: bottom;">action</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"sym"}" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 90%; font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom; vertical-align: bottom;">sym</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"earns date"}" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 90%; font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom; word-wrap: break-word;">earns date</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"am/mid/pm"}" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 90%; font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom; vertical-align: bottom;">am/mid/pm</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[2]-1" data-sheets-numberformat="{"1":5,"2":"m/d","3":1}" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":42709}" style="background-color: white; font-family: Times; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">12/5</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"TOL"}" style="font-family: Times; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">TOL</td><td data-sheets-numberformat="{"1":5,"2":"m/d","3":1}" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":42710}" style="background-color: white; font-family: Times; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">12/6</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"am"}" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">am</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[2]-1" data-sheets-numberformat="{"1":5,"2":"m/d","3":1}" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":42711}" style="background-color: white; font-family: Times; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">12/7</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"CIEN"}" style="background-color: white; font-family: Times; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">CIEN</td><td data-sheets-numberformat="{"1":5,"2":"m/d","3":1}" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":42712}" style="background-color: white; font-family: Times; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">12/8</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"am"}" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">am</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[2]" data-sheets-numberformat="{"1":5,"2":"m/d","3":1}" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":42711}" style="font-family: Times; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">12/7</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"COST"}" style="background-color: white; font-family: Times; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">COST</td><td data-sheets-numberformat="{"1":5,"2":"m/d","3":1}" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":42711}" style="background-color: white; font-family: Times; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">12/7</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"pm"}" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">pm</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[2]" data-sheets-numberformat="{"1":5,"2":"m/d","3":1}" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":42711}" style="font-family: Times; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">12/7</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"HRB"}" style="background-color: white; font-family: Times; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">HRB</td><td data-sheets-numberformat="{"1":5,"2":"m/d","3":1}" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":42711}" style="background-color: white; font-family: Times; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">12/7</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"pm"}" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">pm</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[2]" data-sheets-numberformat="{"1":5,"2":"m/d","3":1}" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":42712}" style="font-family: Times; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">12/8</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"AVGO"}" style="font-family: Times; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">AVGO</td><td data-sheets-numberformat="{"1":5,"2":"m/d","3":1}" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":42712}" style="background-color: white; font-family: Times; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">12/8</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"pm"}" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">pm</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[2]" data-sheets-numberformat="{"1":5,"2":"m/d","3":1}" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":42712}" style="font-family: Times; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">12/8</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"FNSR"}" style="background-color: white; font-family: Times; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">FNSR</td><td data-sheets-numberformat="{"1":5,"2":"m/d","3":1}" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":42712}" style="background-color: white; font-family: Times; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">12/8</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"pm"}" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">pm</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<div>
Three symbols presently have implied volatility in the upper half of their one-year ranges: CIEN, HRB and FNSR. Another symbol, COST, is within easy reach of that level.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<table style="width: 80%px;" valign="middle">
<tbody>
<tr><td align="right" width="50%"><b><i></i></b><br />
<center>
<b><i>A Complete Guide to Volume Price Analysis<br />by Anna Coulling</i></b></center>
</td>
<td width="50%"><center>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="//ws-na.amazon-adsystem.com/widgets/q?ServiceVersion=20070822&OneJS=1&Operation=GetAdHtml&MarketPlace=US&source=ss&ref=as_ss_li_til&ad_type=product_link&tracking_id=daypoems-20&marketplace=amazon&region=US&placement=1491249390&asins=1491249390&linkId=8de6c7762cf641ac3010928a40c5014e&show_border=true&link_opens_in_new_window=true" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
</center>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
<b>References</b><br />
<b><br /></b><i>Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options</i>, a description of how I trade, can be read <a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/1XhTPzy5PR-AxYcnLkFQ1okRPVlaFWBfOBB3tomGtNIo/edit?usp=sharing">here</a>.<br />
<br />
<i>Small Lots: A new strategy</i> discusses the thinking behind the analysis that identified these trades and can be read here. The symbols noted in this post are intended for trading on a commission-free platform such as <a href="http://www.robinhood.com/">Robinhood Financial</a>. See my initial post on the strategy <a href="http://www.timbovee.com/2016/07/small-lot-trading-new-strategy.html">here</a>.<br />
<i><br /></i>
I can be reached via comments on Private Trader posts or by email at datnillc@gmail.com.<br />
<br />
<b>Alerts</b><br />
<div>
<br /></div>
Two social media feeds provide notification whenever something new is posted.
<br />
<ul>
<li>On Twitter: Follow Tim Bovee: <a href="https://twitter.com/TimBovee">https://twitter.com/TimBovee</a></li>
<li>On Facebook, Like <i>Private Trader</i>: <a href="https://www.facebook.com/PrivateTrader">https://www.facebook.com/PrivateTrader</a></li>
</ul>
<b><span style="font-size: x-small;">Disclaimer</span></b><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-size: x-small;">Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.</span></blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-size: x-small;">No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.</span></blockquote>
<b><span style="font-size: x-small;">License</span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></b>
<a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/" rel="license"><img alt="Creative Commons License" src="http://i.creativecommons.org/l/by-sa/4.0/80x15.png" style="border-width: 0;" /></a><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span property="dct:title" xmlns:dct="http://purl.org/dc/terms/"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span property="dct:title" xmlns:dct="http://purl.org/dc/terms/">All content on <i>Tim Bovee, Private Trader</i></span> by <a href="https://draft.blogger.com/www.timbovee.com" property="cc:attributionName" rel="cc:attributionURL" xmlns:cc="http://creativecommons.org/ns#">Timothy K. Bovee</a> is licensed under a <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/" rel="license">Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License</a>.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: x-small;">Based on a work at <a href="https://draft.blogger.com/www.timbovee.com" rel="dct:source" xmlns:dct="http://purl.org/dc/terms/">www.timbovee.com</a>.</span>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3834975359889311403.post-20323512981727260612016-12-01T09:13:00.000-08:002016-12-01T09:13:17.497-08:00Thursday's AgendaI have no entries on my desk based on my own analysis. See <i><a href="http://www.timbovee.com/2016/11/wednesdays-outcomes_30.html">Thursday's Prospects</a></i>.<br />
<br />
I shall be following <i><a href="http://www.dough.com/">Dough</a></i> during the the day as part of my education project and shall mimic their trades that I find interesting.<br />
<br />
We're less than three weeks out from the expiration of the DEC options series. Time to exit the losers. I'll be working on that today.<br />
<br />
Also, it's time for the weekly search for earnings announcements. Expect a post on that later in the day.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b><i>By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Dec. 1, 2016</i></b></div>
<br />
<table style="width: 80%px;" valign="middle">
<tbody>
<tr><td align="right" width="50%"><b><i></i></b><br />
<center>
<b><i>The Volatility Smile (Wiley Finance)<br />by Emanuel Derman and Michael B. Miller</i></b></center>
</td>
<td width="50%"><center>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="//ws-na.amazon-adsystem.com/widgets/q?ServiceVersion=20070822&OneJS=1&Operation=GetAdHtml&MarketPlace=US&source=ss&ref=as_ss_li_til&ad_type=product_link&tracking_id=daypoems-20&marketplace=amazon&region=US&placement=1118959167&asins=1118959167&linkId=19e098be62a0b31a9cfd27a9876bac7f&show_border=true&link_opens_in_new_window=true" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
</center>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
<b>References</b><br />
<b><br /></b><i>Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options</i>, a description of how I trade, can be read <a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/1XhTPzy5PR-AxYcnLkFQ1okRPVlaFWBfOBB3tomGtNIo/edit?usp=sharing">here</a>.<br />
<br />
<i>Small Lots: A new strategy</i> discusses the thinking behind the analysis that identified these trades and can be read here. The symbols noted in this post are intended for trading on a commission-free platform such as <a href="http://www.robinhood.com/">Robinhood Financial</a>. See my initial post on the strategy <a href="http://www.timbovee.com/2016/07/small-lot-trading-new-strategy.html">here</a>.<br />
<i><br /></i>
I can be reached via comments on Private Trader posts or by email at datnillc@gmail.com.<br />
<br />
<b>Alerts</b><br />
<div>
<br /></div>
Two social media feeds provide notification whenever something new is posted.
<br />
<ul>
<li>On Twitter: Follow Tim Bovee: <a href="https://twitter.com/TimBovee">https://twitter.com/TimBovee</a></li>
<li>On Facebook, Like <i>Private Trader</i>: <a href="https://www.facebook.com/PrivateTrader">https://www.facebook.com/PrivateTrader</a></li>
</ul>
<b><span style="font-size: x-small;">Disclaimer</span></b><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-size: x-small;">Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.</span></blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-size: x-small;">No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.</span></blockquote>
<b><span style="font-size: x-small;">License</span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></b>
<a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/" rel="license"><img alt="Creative Commons License" src="http://i.creativecommons.org/l/by-sa/4.0/80x15.png" style="border-width: 0;" /></a><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span property="dct:title" xmlns:dct="http://purl.org/dc/terms/"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span property="dct:title" xmlns:dct="http://purl.org/dc/terms/">All content on <i>Tim Bovee, Private Trader</i></span> by <a href="https://draft.blogger.com/www.timbovee.com" property="cc:attributionName" rel="cc:attributionURL" xmlns:cc="http://creativecommons.org/ns#">Timothy K. Bovee</a> is licensed under a <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/" rel="license">Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License</a>.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: x-small;">Based on a work at <a href="https://draft.blogger.com/www.timbovee.com" rel="dct:source" xmlns:dct="http://purl.org/dc/terms/">www.timbovee.com</a>.</span>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3834975359889311403.post-18063338023679294762016-11-30T17:37:00.001-08:002016-11-30T17:37:59.464-08:00Thursday's ProspectsScreening of the Wednesday, Nov. 30 markets identified seven prospective high options volatility trades.<br />
<br />
I would normally make final trading decisions on Thursday, Dec. 1. However, I've previously passed or presently hold all of them.<br />
<br />
Six prospects have sufficiently high implied volatility to qualify for further analysis:<br />
<style type="text/css"><!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}--></style><br />
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" dir="ltr" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: 1px solid #ccc; font-family: arial,sans,sans-serif; font-size: 13px; table-layout: fixed;"><colgroup><col width="100"></col></colgroup><tbody>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"TBT"}" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">TBT</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"TLT"}" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">TLT</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"XLU"}" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">XLU</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"FXE"}" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">FXE</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"GDXJ"}" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">GDXJ</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
I hold position on TLT and FXE and have passed on the rest.<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Two are close to having sufficiently high volatility to qualify.</div>
<div>
<br />
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" dir="ltr" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: 1px solid #ccc; font-family: arial,sans,sans-serif; font-size: 13px; table-layout: fixed;"><colgroup><col width="100"></col></colgroup><tbody>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"COST"}" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">COST</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"UNG"}" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">UNG</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
I previously passed on both.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
I shall also consider trades posted on <i><a href="http://www.timbovee.com/2016/11/small-lots-strategy-analysis-72016.html">Dough</a></i> as part of my current learning project.<br />
<div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
I have suspended work on my small lots shares approach through December until I determine how to move forward, given the poor trading results of July through October. See <a href="http://www.timbovee.com/2016/11/small-lots-strategy-analysis-72016.html"><i>Small Lots Approach: Analysis 7/2016 through 10/2016</i>.</a><br />
<br />
<!-- INSERT AD HERE -->
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b><i>-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Nov. 30, 2016</i></b></div>
<br />
<table style="width: 80%px;" valign="middle">
<tbody>
<tr><td align="right" width="50%"><b><i></i></b><br />
<center>
<b><i>The Upside of Inequality: How Good Intentions Undermine the Middle Class<br />by Edward Conrad</i></b></center>
</td>
<td width="50%"><center>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="//ws-na.amazon-adsystem.com/widgets/q?ServiceVersion=20070822&OneJS=1&Operation=GetAdHtml&MarketPlace=US&source=ss&ref=as_ss_li_til&ad_type=product_link&tracking_id=daypoems-20&marketplace=amazon&region=US&placement=1595231234&asins=1595231234&linkId=b6d6a219a4ba7cc98736668556df205f&show_border=true&link_opens_in_new_window=true" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
</center>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
<br />
<b>References</b><br />
<b><br /></b><i>Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options</i>, a description of how I trade, can be read <a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/1XhTPzy5PR-AxYcnLkFQ1okRPVlaFWBfOBB3tomGtNIo/edit?usp=sharing">here</a>.<br />
<br />
<i>Small Lots: A new strategy</i> discusses the thinking behind the analysis that identified these trades and can be read here. The symbols noted in this post are intended fortrading on a commission-free platform such as <a href="http://www.robinhood.com/">Robinhood Financial</a>.<br />
<i><br /></i>
I can be reached via comments on Private Trader posts or by email at datnillc@gmail.com.<br />
<br />
<b>Alerts</b><br />
<div>
<br /></div>
Two social media feeds provide notification whenever something new is posted.
<br />
<ul>
<li>On Twitter: Follow Tim Bovee: <a href="https://twitter.com/TimBovee">https://twitter.com/TimBovee</a></li>
<li>On Facebook, Like <i>Private Trader</i>: <a href="https://www.facebook.com/PrivateTrader">https://www.facebook.com/PrivateTrader</a></li>
</ul>
<b><span style="font-size: x-small;">Disclaimer</span></b><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-size: x-small;">Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.</span></blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-size: x-small;">No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.</span></blockquote>
<b><span style="font-size: x-small;">License</span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></b>
<a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/" rel="license"><img alt="Creative Commons License" src="http://i.creativecommons.org/l/by-sa/4.0/80x15.png" style="border-width: 0;" /></a><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span property="dct:title" xmlns:dct="http://purl.org/dc/terms/"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span property="dct:title" xmlns:dct="http://purl.org/dc/terms/">All content on <i>Tim Bovee, Private Trader</i></span> by <a href="https://draft.blogger.com/www.timbovee.com" property="cc:attributionName" rel="cc:attributionURL" xmlns:cc="http://creativecommons.org/ns#">Timothy K. Bovee</a> is licensed under a <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/" rel="license">Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License</a>.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: x-small;">Based on a work at <a href="https://draft.blogger.com/www.timbovee.com" rel="dct:source" xmlns:dct="http://purl.org/dc/terms/">www.timbovee.com</a>.</span>
</div>
</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0