Three other potential market movers are on the agenda for the week: On Monday, personal income and outlays at 8:30 a.m. and the Institute of Supply Management manufacturing index at 10 a.m. and, on Friday, international trade at 8:30 a.m.
Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):
The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.
The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.
The average hourly workweek in manufacturing from the employment report, at 8:30 a.m. Friday.
Manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials from the factory orders report, at 10 a.m. Thursday.
Vendor performance, also called the deliveries times index, from the ISM manufacturing survey, at 10 a.m. Monday.
The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report on Thursday at 8:30 a.m.
Manufacturers' new orders for non-defense capital goods from the factory orders report, at 10 a.m. Thursday.
Events arranged by day:
Monday: Personal income and outlays at 8:30 a.m., the Purchasing Managers Institute manufacturing index at 9:45 a.m., and the ISM manufacturing index and construction spending, each at 10 a.m.
Tuesday: Motor vehicle sales throughout the day.
Wednesday: The ADP employment report at 8:15 a.m., the ISM non-manufacturing index at 10 a.m. and petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.
Thursday: Jobless claims and productivity and costs, each at 8:30 a.m., factory orders at 10 a.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.
Friday: The employment situation and international trade, each at 8:30 a.m.
I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.29%, up 0.06% from a week earlier.
Treasury Debt
Bills
- 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
- 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
- 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
- 52-week: Auction Thursday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday
- 2-year: Settlement Monday.
- 3-year: Announcement Wednesday 8:30 a.m.
- 5-year: Settlement Monday.
- 7-year: Settlement Monday.
- 10-year: Announcement Wednesday 8:30 a.m.
- 30-year: Announcement Wednesday 8:30 a.m.
- None.
Fed Vice-Chairman Stanley Fischer discusses recent monetary policy at the Council on Foreign Relations on Monday in New York City at 1 p.m.
Two other members of the Federal Open Market Committee take to the podium: Kansas City Fed Pres. Esther George on Tuesday and Cleveland Fed Pres. Loretta Mester on Thursday.
Analytical universe
This week I shall be analyzing new trading signals from among 463 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds.
Good trading!
-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Jan. 31, 2016
References
Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.
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Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.License
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