Sunday, January 3, 2016

The Week Ahead: Jobs, manufacturing, trade, money

The first week of 2016 opens with a round of significant economic reports, most notably the employment situation on Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

The jobs report gets a sneak preview from the ADP employment report, prepared by a major payroll company, on Wednesday at 8:15 a.m.

The Institute of Supply Management manufacturing survey will be released Monday at 10 a.m. and international trade numbers on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m.

The Federal Open Market Committee minutes of the Dec. 16, 2015 meeting -- that's the one where the FOMC voted to raise interest rates for the first time since 2006.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The average hourly workweek in manufacturing from the employment situation report on Friday at 8:30 a.m.

Manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials from the factory orders report on Wednesday at 10 a.m.

Vendor performance, or the deliveries times index, from the ISM manufacturing survey on Monday at 10 a.m..

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m.

Manufacturers' new orders for non-defense capital goods from the factory orders report on Wednesday at 10 a.m.

Events arranged by day:

Monday: The Purchasing Managers Institute manufacturing index at 9:45 a.m.,  the ISM manufacturing survey at 10 a.m. and construction spending at 10 a.m.

Tuesday: Motor vehicle sales throughout the day.

Wednesday: The ADP employment report at 8:15 a.m., international trade at 8:30 a.m., factory orders and the ISM non-manufacturing index, each at 10 a.m., petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m. and the FOMC minutes at 2 p.m.

ThursdayJobless claims at 8:30 a.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: The employment situation at 8:30 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.37%, down 0.04% from a week earlier.

Treasury Debt

  • 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 52-week: Auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 3-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 10-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 30-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • None.

Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer addresses the American Economic Association's annual meeting in San Francisco on Sunday at 1:15 p.m. New York time (10:15 a.m. local). His subject: Monetary Policy, Financial Stability and the Zero Lower Bound.

Chicago Fed Pres. Charles Evans takes to the podium on Thursday.

Both are members of the Federal Open Market Committee.

Analytical universe

This week I shall be analyzing new trading signals from among 493 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds.

Good trading!

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Jan. 3, 2016


Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.


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Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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