Sunday, January 24, 2016

The Week Ahead: GDP, new homes, durables, money policy

The first look at 4th quarter gross domestic product will hit the markets on Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time, the highest powered report of the week.

New home sales will be published on Wednesday at 10 a.m. and durable goods orders on Thursday at 8:30 a.m.

The Federal Open Market Committee meets for two days, issuing a statement on Wednesday at 2 p.m. They raised the federal funds rate by 0.25% in December. Will they double down in January? The world wonders.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report on Thursday at 8:30 a.m.

The index of consumer expectations from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey on Friday at 10 a.m.

Events arranged by day:

Monday: The Dallas Federal Reserve manufacturing survey at 10:30 a.m.

Tuesday: The S&P Case-Shiller home price index covering 20 metropolitan areas at 9 a.m. and consumer confidence at 10 a.m.

Wednesday New home sales at 10 a.m., petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m. and the FOMC announcement at 2 p.m.

Thursday: Durable goods orders and jobless claims, each at 8:30 a.m. , pending home sales at 10 a.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: GDP and the employment cost index, each at 8:30 a.m., the Chicago Purchasing Managers' index at 9:45 a.m. and consumer sentiment at 10 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.23%, up 0.03% from a week earlier.

Treasury Debt

  • 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 52-week: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 2-year: Auction Tuesday 1 p.m.
  • 2-year floating rate: Auction Wednesday 11:30 a.m.
  • 5-year: Auction Wednesday 1 p.m.
  • 7-year: Auction Thursday 1 p.m.
  • None. 
  • 10-year: Settlement Friday.

After Wednesday's FOMC announcement at 2 p.m., one member of the Fed glitterati  shyly peaks out from his winter burrow. San Francisco Fed Pres. John Williams, a member of the FOMC, makes a public appearance on Friday.

Analytical universe

This week I shall be analyzing new trading signals from among 463 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds.

Good trading!

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Jan. 24, 2016


Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.


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Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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