New home sales will be published on Wednesday at 10 a.m. and durable goods orders on Thursday at 8:30 a.m.
The Federal Open Market Committee meets for two days, issuing a statement on Wednesday at 2 p.m. They raised the federal funds rate by 0.25% in December. Will they double down in January? The world wonders.
Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):
The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.
The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.
The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report on Thursday at 8:30 a.m.
The index of consumer expectations from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey on Friday at 10 a.m.
Events arranged by day:
Monday: The Dallas Federal Reserve manufacturing survey at 10:30 a.m.
Tuesday: The S&P Case-Shiller home price index covering 20 metropolitan areas at 9 a.m. and consumer confidence at 10 a.m.
Wednesday: New home sales at 10 a.m., petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m. and the FOMC announcement at 2 p.m.
Thursday: Durable goods orders and jobless claims, each at 8:30 a.m. , pending home sales at 10 a.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.
Friday: GDP and the employment cost index, each at 8:30 a.m., the Chicago Purchasing Managers' index at 9:45 a.m. and consumer sentiment at 10 a.m.
I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.23%, up 0.03% from a week earlier.
- 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
- 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
- 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
- 52-week: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
- 2-year: Auction Tuesday 1 p.m.
- 2-year floating rate: Auction Wednesday 11:30 a.m.
- 5-year: Auction Wednesday 1 p.m.
- 7-year: Auction Thursday 1 p.m.
- 10-year: Settlement Friday.
After Wednesday's FOMC announcement at 2 p.m., one member of the Fed glitterati shyly peaks out from his winter burrow. San Francisco Fed Pres. John Williams, a member of the FOMC, makes a public appearance on Friday.
This week I shall be analyzing new trading signals from among 463 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds.
-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Jan. 24, 2016
Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.
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Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
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