Sunday, January 17, 2016

The Week Ahead: Housing, prices and a holiday

U.S. markets are closed on Monday for the Martin Luther King holiday. London, Tokyo and Sydney will be open for business.

Economic reporting during the shortened week will have a focus on real estate -- the forward looking housing starts on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. New York time, a snapshot of the greatest part of the market, existing home sales, on Friday at 10 a.m., and the lower impact housing market index released by the Home Builders on Tuesday at 10 a.m.

Also out, the consumer price index on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. -- not the metric the Fed relies on for measuring inflation -- and the Philadelphia Federal Reserve business outlook survey of conditions in the mid-Atlantic states on Thursday at 8:30 a.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report on Thursday at 8:30 a.m.

Building permits for new private homes from housing starts at 8:30 a.m. on Wednesday.

Events arranged by day:

Monday: U.S. markets closed all day.

Tuesday: Home Builders housing market index at 10 a.m. and the Treasury Department's international capital report at 4 p.m.

Wednesday: Consumer price index and housing starts, each at 8:30 a.m.

ThursdayJobless claims and the Philadelphia Federal Reserve business outlook survey, each at 8:30 a.m., petroleum inventories at 11 a.m.and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: Purchasing Managers Institute manufacturing index flash report at 9:45 a.m. and existing home sales at 10 a.m.

The leading indicators index, out Friday at 10 a.m., is itself not a leading indicator, but it provides a useful You-Are-Here marker for the economic cycle.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.20%, down 0.10% from a week earlier.

Treasury Debt

  • 4-week: Announcement Tuesday 11 a.m., auction Wednesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 3-month: Auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 6-month: Auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 2-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 5-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 7-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • None. 
  • 10-year: Auction Thursday 1 p.m.

As hard winter sets in, the Federal Reserve glitterati go into hibernation, for the week at least.

Analytical universe

This week I shall be analyzing new trading signals from among 464 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds.

Good trading!

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Jan. 17, 2016


Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.


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Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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