Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):
The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.
The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.
The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m.
The index of consumer expectations from the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment report on Friday at 9:55 a.m.
Events arranged by day:
Tuesday: The job openings and labor turnover survey at10 a.m.
Wednesday: Petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m. and the Federal Reserve Beige Book and Treasury budget at 2 p.m.
Thursday: Jobless claims and import and export prices at 8:30 a.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.
Friday: Producer prices, retail sales and the Empire State manufacturing survey of conditions in New York, each at 8:30 a.m., industrial production at 9:55 a.m. and business inventories at 10 a.m.
I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.30%, down 0.07% from a week earlier.
- 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
- 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
- 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
- 3-year: Auction Tuesday 1 p.m., settlement Friday.
- 10-year: Auction Wednesday 1 p.m., settlement Friday.
- 30-year: Auction Thursday 1 p.m., settlement Friday.
- 10-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
The Beige Book release always signals a week of appearances by the Federal Reserve glitterati.
Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer discusses Monetary Policy, Financial Stability and the Zero Lower Bound at the Banque de France and Bank for International Settlements Farewell Symposium for Christian Noyer in Paris on Tuesday at 5:30 a.m. New York time.
Four Federal Open Market Committee members take to the podium: Atlanta Fed Pres. Dennis Lockhart on Monday, Richmond Fed Pres. Jeffrey Lacker on Tuesday, Chicago Fed Pres. Charles Evans on Wednesday and New York Fed Pres. William Dudley on Friday.
Two alternates will speak: Boston Fed Pres. Eric Rosengren on Wednesday and St. Louis Fed Pres. James Bullard on Thursday
One Fed official unconnected with the money policy committee this year has scheduled an appearance: Dallas Fed Pres. Rob Kaplan on Monday. He took office in September.
This week I shall be analyzing new trading signals from among 493 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds.
-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Jan. 10, 2016
Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.
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Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
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