Sunday, March 8, 2015

The Week Ahead: Retail sales, producer prices

It will be a slow week for economics reporting, with only two potential market movers that rarely meet their potential.

The government's retail sales survey will be reported Thursday at 8:30 a.m. Since the major retail chains do their own public reporting, this is often old news.

And the producer price index will be published on Friday at 8:30 a.m. It's a useful indicator, but one that is overshadowed by its big sister, the consumer price index, which was released in late February.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The average hourly workweek in manufacturing from the employment report, at 8:30 a.m. Friday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial jobless claims, at 8:30 a.m. Thursday. 

The index of consumer expectations from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment report, at 10 a.m. Friday.

Other items of interest:

Tuesday: The job opening and labor turnover survey at 10 a.m.

Wednesday: Petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m. and the Treasury budget at 2 p.m.

Thursday: Import and export prices  at 8:30 a.m. and business inventories at 10 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily.

Treasury Debt


  • 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday
  • 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 3-year: Auction Tuesday 1 p.m.
  • 10-year: Auction Wednesday 1 p.m.
  • 30-year: Auction Thursday 1 p.m.
  • 10-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.

Two of the Federal Reserve glitterati take the podium during the week, both on Monday: 
Cleveland Fed Pres. Loretta Mester, an alternate on the Federal Open Market Committee, and Dallas Fed Pres. Richard Fisher, who has no role on the FOMC this year.

Analytical universe

This week I shall be analyzing new bull and bear signals among 2,419 stocks and exchange-traded funds.

Trading calendar

By my rules for shorter-term trades, I'm trading April options and later for the short legs of vertical, diagonal and calendar spreads and covered calls, and for all legs of butterfly spreads and iron condors. I'm trading June options and later for single calls and puts as well as straddles. Shares, of course, are good at any time.

Good trading.
-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 8, 2015


My price channel trading rules can be read here. My long-term share trading rules can be read here.  My volatility trading rules can be read here. The channel rules are based on
 the classic Turtle Trading rules, which can be read here.


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