Sunday, March 1, 2015

The Week Ahead: Jobs, income, outlays, trade

The employment situation report dominates the week in economic reporting. The jobs numbers will be published on Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time. The report will be given a sneak preview in the form of the private-sector ADP employment report, out Wednesday at 8:15 a.m.

Other major potential market-movers of the week are personal income and outlays at 8:30 a.m. and the Institute of Supply Management manufacturing index at 10 a.m., both on Monday, and international trade on Friday at 8:30 a.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The average hourly workweek in manufacturing from the employment report, at 8:30 a.m. Friday.

Manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials from the factory orders report, at 10 a.m. Thursday

Vendor performance, or the deliveries times index, from the ISM manufacturing survey, at 10 a.m. Monday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial jobless claims, at 8:30 a.m. Thursday. 

Manufacturers' new orders for non-defense capital goods from the factory orders report, at 109 a.m. Thursday.

Other items of interest:

Monday: Purchasing Managers Institute manufacturing index at 9:45 a.m. and construction spending at 10 a.m.

Tuesday: Motor vehicle sales throughout the day.

Wednesday: The Institute of Supply Management non-manufacturing index at 10 a.m., petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m. and the Federal Reserve Beige Book at 2 p.m.

Thursday: Productivity and costs at 8:30 a.m. and the Dodd-Frank Act stress test results from the Federal Reserve at 4:30 p.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily.

Treasury Debt

  • 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday
  • 52-week: Auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 2-year: Settlement Monday.
  • 3-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 5-year: Settlement Monday.
  • 7-year: Settlement Monday.
  • 10-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 30-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen addresses the Citizens Budget Commission's awards dinner in New York, at 8:15 p.m. Tuesday.

Another FOMC member speaking during the week is San Francisco Fed Pres. John Williams on Friday.

An FOMC alternate, Kansas City Fed Pres. Esther George, speaks on Wednesday.

One other of the Fed glitterati, unaffiliated with the FOMC this year, takes to the podium. Dallas Fed Pres. Richard Fisher speaks on Thursday.

Analytical universe

This week I shall be analyzing new bull and bear signals among 2,444 stocks and exchange-traded funds.

Trading calendar

By my rules for shorter-term trades, I'm trading April options and later for the short legs of vertical, diagonal and calendar spreads and covered calls, and for all legs of butterfly spreads and iron condors. I'm trading June options and later for single calls and puts as well as straddles. Shares, of course, are good at any time.

Good trading.
-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 1, 2015


My shorter-term trading rules can be read here. My longer-term trading rules can be read here. And the classic Turtle Trading rules on which my rules are based can be read here. My volatility trading rules can be read here.


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