Sunday, March 29, 2015

The Week Ahead: Jobs, income, outlays, manufacturing, trade

U.S. markets will be closed on Friday for the Christians' Good Friday holiday. Markets in London, Tokyo and Sydney will be open for business.

The U.S. Government will issue a major economic report on Friday while the exchanges are closed, a puzzling anomaly that dates back to a slower and more genteel era in market history.

The employment report on Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time will give money policy makers and traders something to ponder as the Federal Reserve continues its snail-like progress toward higher interest rates. The report, which includes the headline-generating unemployment rate, will be given a sneak preview by the ADP employment report, issued by a leading payroll company on Wednesday at 9:15 a.m.

Other potential market-movers during the week: Personal income and outlays on Monday at 8:30 a.m., the Institute of Supply Management manufacturing survey on Wednesday at 10 a.m. and international trade on Thursday at 8:30 a.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The average hourly workweek in manufacturing from the employment report, at 8:30 a.m. Friday.

Manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials from the factory orders report, at 10 a.m. Thursday.

Vendor performance, or the deliveries times index, from the ISM manufacturing survey at 10 a.m. on Wednesday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial jobless claims, at 8:30 a.m. Thursday. 

Manufacturers' new orders for non-defense capital goods from the factory orders report, at 10 a.m. Thursday.

Other items of interest:

Monday: Pending home sales at 10 a.m. and the Dallas Federal Reserve manufacturing survey at 10:30 a.m.

Tuesday: The S&P Case-Shiller home price index at 9 a.m., tracking conditions in 20 metropolitan areas,  the Chicago Purchasing Managers Institute survey at 9:45 a.m. and consumer confidence at 10 a.m.

Wednesday: Motor vehicle sales throughout the day, the Purchasing Managers Institute manufacturing index at 9:45 a.m., construction spending at 10 a.m. and petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily.

Treasury Debt


  • 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 52-week: Auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 2-year: Settlement Tuesday.
  • 3-year: Announcement Thursday.
  • 5-year: Settlement Tuesday.
  • 7-year: Settlement Tuesday.
  • 10-year: Announcement Thursday.
  • 30-year: Announcement Thursday.
  • 10-year: Settlement Tuesday.

Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer delivers a speech on monetary policy Monday at 7:15 p.m. to a Fed conference in Stone Mountain, Georgia. His title: "Nonbank Financial Intermediation, Financial Stability, and the Road Forward".

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen makes brief welcoming remarks remarks on Wednesday at 8:40 a.m. to the Fed's Community Development Research Conference in Washington.

Yellen and Fischer are members of the Federal Open Market Committee.

Other FOMC members taking to the podium: Richmond Fed Gov. Jeffrey Lacker on Tuesday and Fed Gov. Lael BrainardAtlanta Fed Pres. Dennis Lockhart and San Francisco Fed Pres. John Williams on Wednesday

FOMC alternates at the mike: Cleveland Fed Pres. Loretta Mester on Tuesday and St. Louis Fed Pres. James Bullard on Friday.

Others among the Fed glitterati taking to the speaking circuit: Kansas City Fed Pres. Esther George on Tuesday and Minneapolis Fed Pres. Narayana Kocherlakota on Friday.

Analytical universe

This week I shall be analyzing new bull and bear signals among 2,463 stocks and exchange-traded funds.

Trading calendar

By my rules for shorter-term trades, I'm trading April options and later for the short legs of vertical, diagonal and calendar spreads and covered calls, and for all legs of butterfly spreads and iron condors. I'm trading July options and later for single calls and puts as well as straddles. Shares, of course, are good at any time.

Good trading.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 29, 2015


My price channel trading rules can be read here. My long-term share trading rules can be read here.  My volatility trading rules can be read here. The channel rules are based on
 the classic Turtle Trading rules, which can be read here.


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