Wednesday, July 6, 2011

7/7 Almanac

On Thursday, July 7: Weekly jobless claims.

There are nine trading days before the July options expire, 44 the August, 72 the September and 107 the October.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .


Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session up 0.1% from the prior close. During the day SPY traversed 0.8% in a net move up of 0.4%.

The day's extremes: Open $133.49, high $134.14, low $133.11, close $133.97.

SPY closed within the DeMark pivots after trading below their range. The next DeMark pivots are $133.54-$134.57.

In total, 2.4 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchanges, 1% fewer than on the prior trading day.

Five-year bond yields imply inflation at 2.13%, unchanged from the prior trading day.

Econ reports:

Something for everyone.

For all of us: The run-up to Friday's employment report continues, with the weekly jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, the ADP employment report at 8:15 a.m., and the Monster employment index at 6 a.m. (ADP is a gigantic payroll services company; Monster is, the online job-search site.)

For energy geeks: The natural gas report at 10:30 a.m. and petroleum inventories at 11 a.m.

For money geeks: The Federal Reserve balance sheet and money supply figures at 4:30 p.m.

And for the shop-til-you drop crowd: Chain store sales throughout the day.

Treasury announces funding requirements for 3- and 10-year notes and 30-year bonds at 9 a.m., and 3- and 6-month bills at 11 a.m.

Kansas City Fed Pres. Tom Hoenig gives a speech.

Although no longer sitting on the Federal Open Market Committee, this veteran child of the Fed has been highly visible on the speaking circuit of late, critiquing the Fed's handling of the recent crisis in capitalist finance and the ensuing recession. He took office under President George H.W. Bush (Dad, not the kid) and made his career within the Federal Reserve system.

Likes: Central banking Consequences. Dislikes: Inflation.

I find the guy to be the most interesting thinker among the top Fed officials. And I find them all to be fairly fascinating. Complexity and power forged into a single package -- can't beat that.

The Federal Reserve maintains an archive, where it posts transcripts of speeches and testimony within a few days of the event.

Trading Calendar:

By my rules, at this point in the cycle I can trade August vertical and calendar spreads, and October or later straddles, strangles, calls and puts. And of course, shares are good at any time.

Good trading!

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