Tuesday, July 5, 2011

7/6 Almanac

On Wednesday, July 6: Preliminary jobs report, non-manufacturing index.

There are 10 trading days before the July options expire, 45 the August, 73 the September and 108 the October.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .


Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session down 0.1% from the prior close. During the day SPY traversed 0.5% in a net move up of 3¢

The day's extremes: Open $133.78, high $134.08, low $133.39, close $133.81.

SPY traded entirely within the DeMark pivots. The next DeMark pivots are $133.60-$134.29.

In total, 2.4 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchanges, barely changed from the prior trading day.

Five-year bond yields imply inflation at 2.13%, three basis points lower than the prior trading day.

Econ reports:

Wednesday marks the quiet overture that leads to a deafening finalé (trumpets and tympani): The monthly employment report on Friday. This, obviously, is the econ report with the broadest influence, having make-or-break powers over presidents, pundits and private traders caught with positions on the wrong side of history.

So, on Wednesday, two private sector jobs reports, one from ADP (the payroll people) at 8:15 a.m. Eastern, and a job cuts report from Challenger, Gray & Christmas at 7:30 a.m. It is not unheard of for stocks to move based on the ADP report.

On Thursday, the weekly jobless claims report provides another opportunity for guessing ahead of Friday's main event.

Also on Wednesday, the Institute of Supply Management's non-manufacturing index at 10 a.m., which includes sectors ranging from farming and mining to wholesale and retail. (I've never quite understood what the components of this report have in common -- I mean, Uncle John's ranch and Macy's? What's the point! -- but it can occasionally move the markets.)

And, a pair of weekly retail reports, ICSC-Goldman at 7:45 a.m. and Redbook at 8:55 a.m., and the Mortgage Bankers' weekly home purchase applications report, at 7 a.m.

Treasury auctions 4-week bills at 11:30 a.m.

No Fedsters are scheduled to speak. Still deaf from exploding fireworks on the National Mall, I'd wager.

The Federal Reserve maintains an archive, where it posts transcripts of speeches and testimony within a few days of the event.

Trading Calendar:

By my rules, at this point in the cycle I can trade August vertical and calendar spreads, and October or later straddles, strangles, calls and puts. And of course, shares are good at any time.

Good trading!

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