7/22 Forex

Two breakouts among the 124 currency pairs I follow, both with weak trends.

There were an unusually large number of parabolic sar phase changes, more than a third of them involving trades out of the Swiss franc. The franc was a haven when it looked like the U.S. debt rating and the Euro-zone's financial stability were in jeopardy. Both problems see to be nearing solutions.

Parabolic sar phase changes...

... to the bull side: AUD/CAD, AUD/CHF, EUR/CAD, EUR/CHF, GBP/CHF and SEK/JPY.

... to the bear side: AUD/CZK, AUD/ZAR, CAD/NOK, CHF/CZK, CHF/DKK, CHF/HUF, CHF/NOK, CHF/ZAR, CZK/HUF, DKK/HUF, EUR/HUF, GBP/NOK, GBP/SEK, NZD/PLN, NZD/ZAR and USD/HUF.

Weak-Trend Breakouts

sym	phase	adx	bday	blevel	stop	atr	atr%
AUD/HKD		11	jul22	HK$8.4612	HK$8.3758	0.0854	1.0%
NZD/CHF+		14	jul22	SF0.7092	SF0.7014	0.0106	1.5%

Major currency pairs, which carry lower margin in the United States, are marked with a plus sign (+) after the symbol. My holdings are marked with an asterisk (*).



Key

• phase: Green for a bull-phase breakout, red for a bear phase.
• adx: Average direction index location, indicating the strength, or the temperature, of the trend. Orange for 40 or greater, aqua (light blue) for 25 and up but below 40, magenta (light purple) for 20 and up but below 25, and brown for anything below 20. (Mnemonic: Orange for the overhead sun, blue for the surrounding sky, magenta for sunset on the horizon and brown for the earth.)
• bday: Breakout day, the day the price broke through the upper or lower 55-day price line.
• blevel: Breakout level, the price level of the line that was broken through.
• bstop: The stop/loss price calculated on breakout days as the 14-day average true range below the breakout-day low for a bull phase and above thre breakout-day high for a bear phase.
• atr: The 14-day average true range, in the same currency as the price.
• atr%: The average true range as a percentage of the breakout level, an indicator of volatility that is comparable for all potential trades.

About channel analysis

Read a detailed explanation of my channel analysis method, including trading rules.


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